US Economy Expected to Gain Jobs by 2035 Despite Automation Concerns

A forthcoming study reveals that despite widespread concerns over AI's impact on employment, the US economy will actually experience a net gain in jobs by 2035. However, this growth will come at a cost, as many workers will need to adapt to changing job requirements.

The research highlights that while automation may displace certain occupations, it will create new ones, ultimately leading to more jobs than losses. Nevertheless, approximately 11 million American workers will face the challenge of transitioning into different roles over the next decade, driven by shifts in the job market.

These changes are not isolated; rather, they are part of a broader trend that will see many workers need to retrain or acquire new credentials to remain relevant. On average, around 770,000 workers per year will be required to cross occupational lines during this period, significantly exceeding historical rates.

One occupation particularly vulnerable to automation is office and administrative support, with up to 80% of hours worked in the field potentially being taken over by machines. Administrative assistants, for instance, possess skills that are surprisingly transferable to roles such as project management.

A closer examination of the skills required for project managers reveals that administrative assistants already possess a significant proportion of these qualifications, including planning, scheduling, and stakeholder management. While there is still a gap between the two roles, it is not insurmountable, with workers able to build on their existing expertise to adapt to new challenges.

The path to transitioning into new roles is often fraught with obstacles, particularly when it comes to acquiring necessary credentials. Many job postings require a bachelor's degree and professional certification, which can be a significant investment in terms of both time and money.

For those looking to move into healthcare support jobs, such as home health aides, the skills gap is substantial. A dishwasher, for example, would need to learn patient assistance and vital-sign assessment, requiring around 20% of the required skills. Completing a month of instruction and obtaining certification is a significant hurdle, especially considering that many employers prefer a nursing assistant credential that takes longer still.

Healthcare support jobs are also often low-paying, with 92% falling into the bottom two wage quintiles. This means that even if workers manage to acquire the necessary skills and credentials, they may not see a corresponding improvement in their lifestyle.

In other cases, the transition is more feasible but requires significant training and adaptation. A packager moving into production fabrication, for instance, would find that around 52% of their existing skills could be transferred. The move comes with a meaningful raise, making it an attractive option for those looking to advance their careers.

The issue of credentials is a pervasive one in the job market. In fact, 85% of growing jobs require some form of credential or certification. While about 38% are mandated by law, often in industries where safety and public trust are paramount, another 47% reflect employer preferences for certain degrees, certificates, or job titles.

The requirement for credentials is not always driven by necessity but rather by convention. Nearly half the credential problem is a result of hiring practices rather than strict regulations. This means that employers have some flexibility to adapt their requirements and make it easier for workers to transition into new roles.

The financial burden of training can be a significant deterrent for workers who are already struggling to make ends meet. Those with limited savings or family responsibilities may prioritize short-term needs over long-term career goals, even if they know that acquiring new skills could lead to better pay and job prospects in the future.

Employers have a vested interest in creating more direct pathways to growing jobs, particularly as the US population ages and the demand for skilled workers increases. Companies that fail to adapt their hiring practices may find themselves with talent shortages, despite laying off staff in other areas. By focusing on demonstrated skills rather than traditional qualifications, employers can save money while also attracting top candidates.

States can play a crucial role in making it easier for workers to acquire new skills and credentials. One way to do this is by streamlining occupational licensing requirements, which can be complex and burdensome for individuals who want to switch careers or industries. By making these requirements more modular and stackable, states can help workers build their qualifications over time.

Colleges and worker-training agencies can also take steps to prepare students for the changing job market. By designing training programs that focus on the skills and credentials that are most in demand, these institutions can give students a better idea of what they will earn after graduation. Governments can provide incentives for individuals who want to acquire new skills, such as subsidies for education and tax breaks for companies that help workers retrain.

The trend is clear: employers are looking for workers with specific skills, including AI fluency, adaptability, resilience, curiosity, and a willingness to learn. More than 70 percent of workers will need new skills in the coming years, even if they stay with their current employer. By investing in training and education, individuals can position themselves for success in a rapidly changing job market.

Investing in training and education is essential for individuals to thrive in a rapidly changing job market. However, many workers lack access to resources that can help them acquire new skills, such as shortening licensing timelines or self-funding time off from work.

Employers and institutions play a crucial role in setting the terms of work, making pathways to future jobs easier to navigate. This is not only beneficial for companies and workers but also has far-reaching implications for households, communities, and the economy at large, ultimately paying dividends for all stakeholders involved.