When it involves stolen bases, José Caballero ranks among the many greatest within the enterprise. In every of the previous two seasons, the speedy shortstop/utilityman led the American League in steals, with 44 with Tampa Bay in 2024 and 49 between the Rays and Yankees final season. He achieved this feat regardless of taking part in in solely 265 video games throughout the 2 seasons (roughly 80 p.c of the out there video games).
To begin this season, Caballero performed the position of “elite basestealer” completely, efficiently advancing on his first ten stolen base makes an attempt to begin the season. In the third inning on April twenty fourth, nevertheless, Cabby was thrown out attempting to steal third after efficiently stealing second; since that play, he’s been downright unhealthy, having been thrown out eight instances in his final 15 makes an attempt.
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Now, the truth that Caballero is getting thrown out isn’t all that uncommon. While he is quick, he lacks the overwhelming velocity of gamers like Bobby Witt Jr. and Jorge Matteo, as his 28.3 ft/sec dash velocity ranks a hundred and fifth within the league (the 76th percentile). Between that and his aggressiveness on the basepaths, he sometimes finds himself close to the highest of the caught stealing leaderboards. His 16 failed makes an attempt in 2024 topped baseball (tied with Elly De La Cruz, who led baseball with 67 stolen bases), and his 11 failed makes an attempt final yr trailed solely Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson.
What is unusual this time round, although, is how streaky Cabby has been. After his first 10 profitable makes an attempt, he was nabbed in 4 of his subsequent 5 makes an attempt. Since then, he’s just about gone one-for-one, by no means going greater than two successes or two failures in a row. For somebody whose profession stolen base share heading into the season was nearly 80 p.c, this appeared a bit uncommon, so I dove into the MLB Film Room to take a look at every of Caballero’s current stolen base makes an attempt. From this, I used to be capable of categorize Caballero’s failed stolen base makes an attempt.
Twice this season, Cabby efficiently beat the throw, solely to overslide the bag and get tagged out after he got here off.
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Caballero tends to slip to the middle discipline aspect of the second base bag, because it will increase the gap the ball must journey by a foot or two, and thus makes it harder for him to be thrown out. The flip aspect of this, although, is that solely friction from the bottom is slowing him down; if he begins his slide too late, or the dust is significantly slick, his momentum will carry him previous the bag, as a result of let’s be sincere, one hand lined in an oven mitt won’t be able to latch onto a flat slab all that simply.
Unfortunately, this is going to occur. Elite base stealers do that to various levels. See, for instance, this stolen base by Jazz Chisholm Jr. from again in April:
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Even although Chisholm goes extra immediately on the bag than Caballero does – maybe the results of his barely sooner dash velocity (28.5 ft/sec) – he nonetheless leans to the middle discipline aspect of second base. Maybe Cabby may discover a bit bit extra success if he does this extra usually, however at this level, if that additional few toes on the throw makes up for a handful of overslid luggage in the course of the season, you’ll take it.
Four makes an attempt, in the meantime, required good throws from the catcher, and in three of them, for the play to be challenged by the protection. Two of them, moreover, had been in the identical sport, on April twenty fifth towards the Astros.
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About these 4, there’s not a lot that I can say with the footage we have now. Maybe he obtained a foul soar? At this level, I wouldn’t know. All I can say is, typically, the protection makes an incredible play, and also you tip your cap to them.
There is, in fact, just one play right here that I’m overly involved about, and it’s this one:
The MLB Film Room labels it “Nick Martinez Pitchout to Ryan McMahon.” It’s not a conventional pitchout, which generally sees the ball thrown within the opposing batter’s field and the catcher leaping out to get away from potential obstruction from the batter. But it is clear that the Rays knew Caballero was going to be working on the play. The catcher begins able to pop up and is shifting properly earlier than the ball reaches residence plate. Now the Yankees did purchase Caballero from the Rays, in order that they’re actually conversant in his considering, however truthfully, I discover Cabby predictable at instances – and if I can discover him predictable, I’m certain different groups can, too. This is, in fact, anecdotal proof, and I don’t wish to make conclusions off anecdotal proof, however within the absence of a straightforward strategy to reliably have a look at groups’ scouting reviews, there’s not a lot else to do.
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But is Caballero’s attainable predictability a cause for concern? Honestly, probably not. Of these seven instances he was caught stealing, he was profitable however fell off the bag twice, and was shut sufficient three different instances that, had the opposite group been out of challenges, he would have notched a stolen base. Based on what we will inform from our residing rooms, it appears to me that Cabby is primarily a sufferer of sequencing: had all seven of his failed makes an attempt been scattered amongst all 18 of his profitable makes an attempt, moderately than bunched up inside the final eight, then this wouldn’t be a narrative.