The Most Overvalued Players In 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts

We are rounding the nook to coaching camp for all 32 NFL groups, and we are able to begin getting the fantasy soccer machine calibrated and operating at full pace with content material and discussions! With that comes undervalued and overvalued gamers. We lined the undervalued players final week, so now we’ve come to the overvalued gamers for fantasy soccer.

Of course, the idea of fantasy soccer gamers being undervalued is subjective, however there are any variety of elements that go into why gamers are drafted within the rounds they’re. One factor is for sure: discovering the diamonds within the tough might be what turns a great fantasy soccer group right into a juggernaut.

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Let’s undergo a number of of the overvalued gamers for fantasy soccer this season intimately and why they’re being labeled as such.

This one is troublesome, particularly for quarterbacks and particularly if you take a look at the common draft place (ADP) for the place. The costs up and down for quarterbacks are actually environment friendly with no actual eye-opening draft-day worth. With that stated, Daniels stands out like a sore thumb probably the most among the many elite quarterbacks.

After ending because the QB5 in 2024 with 25 touchdowns, 3,568 passing yards and 891 speeding yards, his 2025 was each bit as disappointing as his rookie season was superior. Limited to only seven video games because of knee and ankle accidents, Daniels’ yards per try dropped from 7.4 to six.7, his sack charge (8.74%) stayed a lot increased than the league common and his completion share cratered to only 60.6% – down from a really good 69% in his rookie marketing campaign.

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It is definitely doable the Commanders flew into the solar a bit in 2024, as their skill-position gamers are nonetheless missing outdoors of extensive receiver Terry McLaurin. Who is their WR2? Maybe it’s rookie third-round decide Antonio Williams? Could or not it’s tight finish Chig Okonkwo, who was picked up in free company this previous March? Washington additionally added Rachaad White at operating again, so he may catch some passes out of the backfield. Ultimately, the truth that now we have so many questions right here about Daniels’ pass-catchers provides one other layer of uncertainty to his fantasy profile in 2026.

We can not count on Daniels to play hero ball as he did in 2024. All of the quarterbacks round him in quarterback ADP have far fewer questions on surrounding expertise than Daniels does. While Daniels may simply run to a different top-five end, it’s a a lot thinner guess than we wish after we’re spending prime draft capital on a fantasy signal-caller in 2026.

There is little question that Pierce is explosive and environment friendly, as he confirmed final season together with his first 1,000-yard receiving season on simply 47 targets. But there lies the rub with Pierce. He secured a hefty long-term take care of the Colts, making him the highest extensive receiver in Indianapolis – particularly with Michael Pittman Jr. now in Pittsburgh. This is Pattern Matching 101 with Pierce, which is to say some will assume that with one extremely focused participant gone and the opposite full-time receiver making huge cash, the latter will earn extra targets and “go brrr”, as the children say.

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The presumption is that with a long-term contract beneath his belt, Pierce goes to open up extra quantity inside the Colts’ passing sport. We know Pierce has been insanely environment friendly, as we’ve seen over the previous two seasons. Pierce has put up 12.5 and 12.1 yards per goal over the past two seasons on an extremely deep common depth of goal (aDOT) of twenty-two.8 and 20.1 yards, respectively.

Just due to his “better in best ball” archetype of splash play and spike-week scoring at extensive receiver, Pierce will probably be one of many hardest gamers in seasonal redraft fantasy soccer leagues to fit into your lineup with any form of confidence until he can definitively present he can earn targets. Last season’s 5.5 targets per sport had been a profession excessive for Pierce, proper alongside names like Quentin Johnston, Tre Tucker, Elic Ayomanor and Khalil Shakir, amongst gamers who performed across the identical variety of video games Pierce did in 2025. Amongst the highest 30 extensive receivers in uncooked fantasy scoring, solely Jameson Williams had a decrease targets per route run (16%) than Pierce’s 17.4% final season. Pierce wasn’t even within the high three on his OWN TEAM final season! He was distanced by Pittman, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren, who every earned a goal on 20% of routes or higher.

Big performs are boom-or-bust simply by their very nature, and that’s the very factor NFL defenses need to cease. Defenses are counting on the two-high security look as typically as they ever have not too long ago, which has been pretty efficient in forcing offenses to nickel-and-dime their manner down the sphere. Now, groups are searching for other ways to assault defenses, whether or not it’s a number of tight finish seems (see the Los Angeles Rams’ 13 personnel utilization final season) or utilizing operating backs to increase vertically previous the road of scrimmage.

If Pierce goes to be a wonderful redraft decide this season, you want to convey the aDOT down nearer to the 14- or 15-yard vary, the place Pierce can nonetheless get vertical and use his deep-ball abilities, but in addition work nearer to the road of scrimmage and out into the intermediate vary of the sphere. That’s additionally the identical a part of the sphere the place Downs (7.5 profession aDOT) and Warren (5.9-yard aDOT in 2025) function, in order that’s going to be a troublesome promote for me for Pierce due to the place he sometimes operates and the way that’s distinctive amongst his teammates. It additionally signifies that outdoors of greatest ball leagues, I’ll doubtless be passing on Pierce and letting any person else deal with the headache of questioning when to begin him.

In the phrases of certainly one of my favourite late-2000’s bands, The Bravery, “give me something to believe.” No more true phrases have been spoken in terms of the odyssey that’s Kincaid and his fantasy worth. Kincaid enters his fourth NFL season. He’s been a top-12 tight finish simply as soon as – his 2023 rookie season – which noticed him end as TE11 with 73 receptions for 673 yards and two scores.

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It is evident that Kincaid is proficient, and his effectivity spiked massively in his third season in 2025. After posting yards per route run of 1.46 and 1.62 in his first two seasons, Kincaid’s YPRR shot as much as 2.79. On the flip aspect, he additionally performed fewer snaps and routes than he has in his profession, thanks partially to accidents that restricted him to 12 video games, but in addition because of his surrounding teammates in his tight finish room. Both Dawson Knox (58% snaps) and Jackson Hawes (43%) had been on the sphere greater than Kincaid (38%), even when Kincaid owned a 50% route share throughout the total season.

That’s the factor: for high tight ends in fantasy soccer, we wish them to run routes about 70% of the time to have sufficient alternative to build up stats, targets, touchdowns, and many others. Kincaid by no means completed above 63% in any sport in 2025. That low mark solely bought him to 49 targets in 2025, by far the bottom of any high 20 tight finish in fantasy. Among these high 20 tight ends, Kincaid was:

• nineteenth in routes per sport (17.1)

• twentieth in snaps per sport (25.2)

• seventeenth in targets per sport (4.1)

• seventeenth in first-read goal share (17.3%)

• sixteenth in WOPR (0.355) – WOPR being “Weighted Opportunity Rating, ” a blended goal share and air yards share metric conceived by Josh Hermsmeyer to provide a composite rating or score of a participant’s true alternative with their offense.

BUT, within the effectivity metrics we take a look at, Kincaid was stellar on a per-route and per-target foundation:

• 1st in yards per goal (11.7)

• 1st (tied) in targets per route run (23.9%)

• 1st in yards per route run (2.79)

• fifth in RACR (1.220) – RACR being “Receiver Air Conversion Ratio, ” which is a receiver’s effectivity at changing the passing yards thrown to them into precise receiving yards.

Not solely is Kincaid behind the eight-ball together with his personal tight finish room, however you additionally should consider new Bills head coach Joe Brady and his need to run the ball as the first engine of the offense with quarterback Josh Allen and operating again James Cook. There can be a whole lot of goal competitors inside the Buffalo offense, with new acquisition DJ Moore, plus Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, Cook and different position gamers.

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As simply the baseline, we love effectivity with our fantasy soccer gamers, but when that effectivity isn’t going to result in extra time on the sphere, now we have to maneuver on to gamers with extra alternatives to attain factors. Kincaid has proven he generally is a distinction maker, but when it isn’t even ok to earn extra time on the sphere as a featured passing-game goal, then we can not afford to wishcast for much longer.

Honorable Mentions

A Packers group more likely to maintain operating the ball and head coach Matt LaFleur’s insistence on protecting passing quantity out of Love’s attain make him an overvalued fantasy quarterback in 2026.

Stroud must channel his rookie-season type, as he has regressed over the past two seasons. A “brand-name” quarterback moderately than one with weekly fantasy upside.

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One operating again position cut up between two gamers makes the dearer Williams (in comparison with counterpart Blake Corum) a fade in 2026.

Tampa Bay introduced in Kenneth Gainwell and saved Sean Tucker to divide what was anticipated to be his position even additional. Irving might not have the upside he used to have.

More split-backfield stuff, however not less than it’s Sean Payton, who has been doing this for many years. Harvey will discover it tougher to repay his top-30 operating again ADP in 2026 with the group bringing again J.Ok. Dobbins and drafting Jonah Coleman.

Another yr older, however nonetheless in a great place in Los Angeles. Saw his targets per sport dip to his lowest mark (7.9) since 2017. Still instructions targets, however a transparent WR2 behind Puka Nacua. I don’t need to purchase additional erosion at a premium worth in 2026.

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Moore’s metrics cratered in 2025, with profession lows in TPRR (14.3%), YPRR (1.22), targets per sport (4.7) and first-read goal share (17.5%). While his effectivity may bump up barely in 2026, goal competitors and total group surroundings doubtless see Moore mixing into the system moderately than standing out as the highest goal in 2026.

Easy landing regression candidate (11 final season) as his per-route effectivity continues to fall again. Only on a one-year take care of Eli Stowers drafted, however nonetheless doable that Goedert may cede work and lose a full-time position, the place the Eagles have supplied fruitful and condensed fantasy manufacturing. Anything aside from a full-time position renders Goedert out of date.

Now with out Isaiah Likely, it’s unlikely that Andrews can capitalize on a extra empty tight finish room getting into his age-31 season. With two straight seasons of sub-20% TPRR and by far Andrews’ lowest YPRR (1.23) and yards per goal (6.5) of his profession, the wheels could also be falling off.

This article initially appeared on The Huddle: The Most Overvalued Players In 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts