After greater than 4 years on the Ukrainian entrance strains, officer Kyrylo Bondarenko is lastly sensing a shift. “We can see and feel how the mood among the Russian troops on the front line is changing. They are exhausted,” Bondarenko instructed NCS.
“We have managed to turn the tide,” Bondarenko, who serves in the Ukrainian unmanned aerial programs unit Lazar’s Group and is at present preventing close to Zaporizhzhia, instructed NCS.
He’s not alone in feeling this.
Last month, Ukraine managed to liberate extra land than Russia seized – the primary time Moscow suffered a internet lack of territory since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into the southern Russian Kursk area, based on evaluation from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based battle monitor.
While the quantity of territory liberated by Ukraine stays very small – Russia nonetheless controls nearly 20% of Ukraine’s land – Kyiv seems to have the higher hand, for now.
That is an issue for Moscow and its President Vladimir Putin, who has at all times insisted that Russia’s victory in the battle is inevitable as a result of Russian troops preserve seizing extra of Ukraine’s territory and, in the end, will take over the entire of its eastern Donbas region.
That narrative has at all times been flawed, given how gradual and extremely pricey the Russian advances have been for the reason that preliminary full-scale invasion of 2022, but it surely has prompted some harm to Ukraine’s trigger. At occasions, even US President Donald Trump has appeared to purchase into it, declaring Russia to be winning the battle and famously telling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky final yr that he didn’t “have the cards.”
“The entire premise of Putin’s negotiating tactic is using this cognitive warfare to convince the West that there’s no point in supporting Ukraine and that they should just push Ukraine to cede now to all of Russia’s demands,” Christina Harward, the Russia deputy staff lead at ISW, instructed NCS.
“This is really poking holes in that entire narrative,” she added.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated Tuesday that the previous few months had been “record-breaking” in phrases of Kyiv’s successes alongside the entrance line.
“We have eliminated 35,000 Russians in both April and March… Russia lacks the forces to continue offensive operations. The Ukrainian army is exhausting the Russians,” he stated.
Western officers have stated, citing intelligence information, that Russian casualty charges stand at round 30,000 to 35,000 a month.
Ukraine’s latest successes can largely be attributed to its present drone superiority. After focusing a lot of its efforts on short-range assaults on Russian positions alongside the entrance line, and long-range strikes reaching far into Russia’s territory, Ukraine has just lately stepped up its mid-range strikes, focusing on Russia’s logistics.
“We’ve seen a really dramatic uptick in the number of these strikes that Ukrainians have been conducting,” Haward stated. “It’s affecting Russian logistics. If they’re constantly now under threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, that’s going to significantly threaten, slow and hamper their logistics.”
Zelensky stated in one among his nightly addresses final week that conducting mid-range strikes towards Russian navy logistics, from depots and command posts to air protection programs, is the nation’s prime precedence and that Ukraine is ramping up contracts and manufacturing to maintain that effort.
Soldiers preventing on the entrance strains have confirmed the mid-range strikes are making a distinction.
A senior officer in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), who goes by the decision signal Bankir, instructed NCS that regardless of “continuous” assaults by Russia in the Zaporizhzhia course, Ukraine had managed to regain partial management over areas that Russia captured a number of months in the past.
“There are many different units deployed in our sector. This part of the front is being held thanks to the coordinated efforts of all defense forces – from the infantry holding the positions to the drones that are constantly operating and striking the enemy,” he instructed NCS.
The entrance line is now so saturated with drones that it is nearly not possible for both facet to make a transfer. While the Ukrainians are struggling to liberate as a lot land as they want, the lack to maneuver is extra damaging for the Russian troops who can not grind ahead slowly, as they’ve in the previous.
Instead, they’re now making an attempt to infiltrate areas underneath Ukrainian management and create an phantasm of fixed advances, analysts say. They might be able to elevate the Russian flag contained in the no-man’s land that is the present entrance line, however they can not maintain the place for lengthy.
“The Russians constantly report to their commanders that they have captured various villages, but in reality, they are not there. We are constantly pushing them out of there. Our mid-range strikes, which we carry out continuously, are a great help in this regard,” Bondarenko stated.
This technique is most seen alongside a number of the most closely contested areas of the entrance line – together with the as soon as strategically necessary Ukrainian transport hub of Pokrovsk. When Russia lastly managed to take over the town in December, nearly two years after its first try, the concern in Kyiv was that this might result in additional advances. But Russian troops have been caught, unable to push forward.
Ukraine’s latest successes are usually not restricted to the entrance strains.
Kyiv has sought to restrict how a lot Russia can profit from the rise in oil costs attributable to the battle in Iran, finishing up strikes deeper inside Russian territory and targeting oil and gas infrastructure and different key property.
This has helped to restrict Moscow’s windfall from the upper oil costs, but it surely has additionally introduced the battle a lot nearer to house for its residents.
Dmitro, who serves as a drone operator in Ukraine’s 79th brigade and requested to be recognized by his first title solely, instructed NCS the day-to-day actuality on the entrance line was “an emotional rollercoaster. While morale lifts each time Kyiv manages a tactical win, he stated, these preventing on the entrance strains are continuously fearful about their family members again house.
Russia massively elevated its missile and drone assaults towards cities throughout Ukraine final yr, focusing on power services and different civilian websites. Last yr was the deadliest for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with greater than 2,500 killed in 2025, based on the United Nations. The first 4 months of this yr have been even deadlier – with extra civilians killed every month than in the identical month final yr, based on UN information.
These assaults are displaying no signal of easing. Moscow launched greater than 1,400 drones and 56 missiles in the 24 hours to Thursday morning. In Kyiv alone, the air raid alarm was in place for some 11 hours.
Dmitro stated that many Ukrainian folks really feel a way of justice when strikes deep inside Russia carry the reality of the war nearer to house for Russian folks.
“When we hit Russian cities with their buildings and plants … Russian people acknowledge there is war,” he stated. “And later that day we get hit terribly in multiple places, with many casualties. … it’s just an endless war mess.”
While Ukraine has scored some tactical victories in latest months, Russia has additionally taken steps that seemingly hinder its personal efforts, resembling disabling Telegram, the encrypted messenger app broadly utilized by troopers on the entrance strains for navy communications.
This occurred shortly after Ukraine managed to steer Elon Musk’s SpaceX firm to disclaim Russia entry to its Starlink satellite-based web service. Even probably the most pro-war Russian navy bloggers had been vital of the Telegram choice.
At the identical time, Russia-watchers say the battle is changing into more and more unpopular amongst Russians. The economy is struggling, people are frustrated about web disruptions and frequent Ukrainian assaults towards targets deep contained in the nation are worrying some folks.
The human toll is growing each day. Last week, opposition Russian shops Mediazona and Meduza printed a brand new estimate of Russian losses in Ukraine, saying as many as 352,000 Russians have been killed in the 4 years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion. The Kremlin has not commented on the determine.
Ukraine is estimated to have suffered between 100,000 and 150,000 fatalities for the reason that begin of the battle. Neither facet releases official casualty numbers and NCS can’t independently confirm the dying toll, however most worldwide specialists have been in broad settlement over the estimates.
The indicators seem like good for Ukraine and morale there is definitely greater than only a few months in the past – however many stay cautious. Spring is now in full bloom, and there is concern that the brand new foliage might cut back visibility for Ukraine’s drone operators and supply extra cowl for Russian infiltrators.
There have been successes for Kyiv earlier than – resembling its huge counteroffensive in the summer season and fall of 2022, or the incursion into Russia’s Kursk area – however they haven’t gained Ukraine the battle.
For now, Ukraine is probably not winning – but it surely is shedding so much lower than Russia.