Kyiv, Ukraine
Russia is still inching forward in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk area, the place it has concentrated the majority of its troops, because it continues efforts to encircle the important thing “fortress belt” metropolis of Kostyantynivka and the town of Lyman.
But outdoors experts and Ukrainian troopers who spoke to NCS say Russia’s claims of development are exaggerated and are available because the Kremlin is doubtless attempting to undertaking a story of success to counter the influence of latest Ukrainian strikes inside Russia.
Russian state media outlet TASS claimed on Monday that Russian forces had “gained full control” of Kostyantynivka’s eastern half and approached its northeastern outskirts.
In actuality, elements of the town have change into a contested “gray zone” – with neither facet controlling them – in keeping with the Washington-based assume tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“These are infiltrations, these are not advances. These are groups of maybe one to two guys, Russian servicemen, entering some positions in the city… it’s not a consolidated position,” stated ISW’s Russia workforce lead, Kateryna Stepanenko, who described the tactic as sluggish and grinding. “They still need quite a lot of time and quite a lot of resources to actually exploit that into consolidated positions.”
Ukrainian troopers on the entrance line informed NCS that the scenario there is getting worse, though it is manageable and Russia’s actions are still extraordinarily sluggish.
“The situation in the Kostyantynivka sector, particularly in Kostyantynivka itself, has been noticeably deteriorating in recent weeks,” Kostiantyn Melnykov, a press officer for Ukraine’s twenty fourth Mechanized Brigade preventing in the close by metropolis of Chasiv Yar, informed NCS on Tuesday. “The enemy is increasing the number of airstrikes in this sector.”
Russia’s intention is to grab all of Ukraine’s Donbas area, which comprises the “fortress belt” of industrial cities, railways and roads that type the spine of the nation’s protection and provide the entrance line. That consists of capturing Kostyantynivka and the encircling settlements – one thing that seems to be Russia’s major goal for now.
But Melnykov added that Ukrainian models in the world are killing Russian troops, destroying gear and “holding back the enemy’s vastly superior forces.”
Russia’s technique has been to ship very small infantry teams – those that survive forward advances – to infiltrate the town. It’s the identical tactic Moscow used to grab the Ukrainian metropolis of Pokrovsk in early 2026, a battle that went on for months after Russian troops first infiltrated the town and was characterised by many untimely declarations of seize.
In some cases, Ukrainian forces have seen a single Russian soldier advancing, in keeping with Yuriy Madyar, the appearing deputy commander of Ukraine’s nineteenth Army Corps, in an interview with the Ukrainian nationwide broadcaster Suspilne final week.
NCS can not independently confirm the scenario on the bottom.
There are a number of explanation why Russia is intensifying its infiltration missions now. One Russian commander posted on Telegram on Tuesday that his forces had been capable of advance through the use of the quilt of summer season greenery. Good climate situations additionally make it simpler to fly drones – though that’s true for Ukraine as properly.
And there are stories that the Kremlin has imposed a deadline of September for seizing the Donbas area, though ISW has assessed that Russia is unlikely to attain that intention.
“Most importantly, they want to declare informational victories. The Russians are experiencing quite a lot of vulnerabilities right now,” Stepanenko stated, citing Ukraine’s latest assaults on infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea, occupied Kherson and extra. “Infiltrations are one of the ways that Russia gets to make these grandiose declarations of victories without actually fully achieving their goals.”
Elements of Russia’s claimed developments are more likely to be false, although. According to ISW, “Russian officials have recently intensified their campaign to use likely AI-altered footage to further their aggrandized claims of Russian successes near Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.”
For instance, the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed a video of its troops elevating a flag in Lyman, which ISW stated it was unable to confirm, including that it “has reason to believe the footage may be AI-altered.”
In Lyman, Ukrainian forces are certainly seeing “a significant intensification of activity,” notably north of the town, in keeping with Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesperson Viktor Tregubov in an interview with native media. But Tregubov insisted that Ukrainian forces have been profitable in pushing it again.
Following assaults on Russian logistic networks in the world, Tregubov informed Suspilne that “it appears they (the Russians) are trying to achieve some results before the situation with logistics, including the supply of fuel and lubricants, begins to truly take its toll on them.”
Meanwhile, Kyiv has elevated the depth of its long-range drone strikes in opposition to massive Russian cities.
In the early hours of Sunday into Monday, Ukraine struck the larger Moscow space for the third time in the previous week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday claimed that Ukrainian Armed Forces “are striking civilian infrastructure with drones in an attempt to destabilize Russian society,” in keeping with TASS.
That comes after Ukraine hit an oil facility on the outskirts of Moscow final week – a big assault that Russian air defenses scrambled to respond to, and through which a Russian protection missile appeared to overlook its goal and inadvertently blow the lid off an oil storage tank.
Nonetheless, Putin still projected confidence about Russian’s battle goals, including, “We will get where we need to.”
‘Crimea will turn into an island’
Kyiv has additionally stepped up its concentrating on of websites in Crimea – the Ukrainian peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014 – in latest days, destroying a railway bridge spanning the North Crimean Canal and placing an oil depot in a single day into Tuesday.
Power was knocked out in Crimea’s largest metropolis, Sevastopol, on Wednesday following Ukrainian assaults on the principle energy substation, in keeping with the Russia-appointed Sevastopol governor Mikhail Razvozhaev. Two individuals had been injured in the in a single day assaults, Razvozhaev stated.
Local authorities in the Crimean Peninsula – a preferred summer season trip vacation spot for Russians – have cancelled youngsters’s camps in latest days and known as off all outside sport actions till additional discover.
Over the weekend, authorities stated 4 individuals had been killed and 28 injured in Ukrainian drone assaults.
Ukraine’s navy claimed it struck a number of of the ferries used to move Russian navy gear to the peninsula, taking them out of fee.
“Essentially, Crimea is being isolated by drones. And in the near future, it looks like Crimea will turn into an island,” Ukraine’s protection minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, warned in an interview with native media final week.