As the ocean of mourners crammed a colossal mosque courtyard in Tehran to see the physique of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for the final time, a thriller man in clerical robes stood at a distance, observing from a balcony the unfolding of the historic ceremony.
The man, standing together with a small group of individuals, appeared in a grainy video that went viral on social media, fueled by suspicions that he was the ayatollah’s son and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
His face wasn’t clear within the video and past the robes, which have been just like these worn by many different Shiite clerics on the ceremony, there was nothing to point that it was Khamenei. Reza Mousavi Vaez, an Iranian cleric, later said on social media that he was the person within the video.
But the actual fact of the footage going viral tells its personal story: Many supporters have been extra centered on in search of indicators of Mojtaba than on the grand ceremony to pay respects to the longest-serving – and maybe probably the most consequential – leader within the Islamic Republic’s 47-year historical past.
Believed to have been wounded within the February assault by Israel and the US that killed his father, mom and spouse, the brand new supreme leader has remained in hiding for the reason that conflict started, communicating with his supporters solely by written statements, by no means displaying his face or utilizing his voice.
Meanwhile, Iranian officers have labored to downplay his accidents and mission a picture of full restoration, claiming Khamenei directed Tehran’s negotiations with Washington, and build up a story of reverence for the younger leader on the streets and within the Islamic Republic’s Newspeak.
His emergence on the funeral would have marked Khamenei’s first recognized public look since his appointment as Iran’s new supreme leader following his father’s assassination.
Ahead of the occasion, Israel threatened the youthful Khamenei too, with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz saying that the brand new supreme leader was “marked for death.”
“Given the extent of the Islamic Republic’s intelligence failures during the war, any public appearance by Mojtaba could expose him to assassination,” Mohsen Milani, a professor and creator of Iran’s Rise and Rivalry with the US within the Middle East. This would jeopardize “both the succession and Tehran’s ability to negotiate with Washington or manage renewed conflict,” he added.
Despite the threats, lacking the funeral fuels even additional intrigue, bringing to the fore questions starting from whether or not Khamenei has certainly been working the nation to how dangerous his injuries have been through the assault.
In the week of ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, AI videos purported to point out Mojtaba Khamenei in disguise and strolling among the many mourners in Tehran to bid farewell to his father. Pro-regime journalists prophesized that he was among the many crowd on the Mosalla, Tehran’s primary mosque, and was “not hidden” after “excellent coordination” with the Revolutionary Guards. Others shared photos of a beardless man in a black hat, claiming it was the republic’s new grand Ayatollah in disguise.
Hours earlier than his father was buried in Mashhad, mourners known as for the brand new supreme leader and chanted, “Here I am at Your service, Mojtaba,” in a declaration of allegiance.
Despite the anticipation and rumors, within the six days of commemoration throughout two international locations for his father, mom and spouse – Iran’s new supreme leader has neither appeared to guide the huge crowd of supporters, nor stood beside his brothers – Mostafa, Masoud and Meysam – to bury their father in his resting place, Mashhad.
In a sarcastic social media publish, Israel’s overseas ministry mocked Khamenei for lacking his father’s funeral. Alongside an image of mourners at one of many funeral processions in Iraq carrying a poster of the brand new Supreme Leader, it wrote: “Mojtaba’s passionate presence at his father’s funeral ceremony in Iraq.”
Last month, President Donald Trump mentioned the youthful Khamenei was “more rational” than his father, earlier than implicitly acknowledging that the brand new leader was alive however “pretty badly injured.” Iranian medical officers mentioned Khamenei was not severely injured within the strike. In May, US intelligence assessed that he was enjoying a essential position in shaping conflict technique alongside senior Iranian officers.
Mojtaba’s absence from his father’s burial may go away the Islamic Republic’s opposition with a stronger perception that he’s incapacitated, and that his appointment was designed to put accountability for decision-making with a figurehead whose lack of bodily presence may make his elimination unimaginable.
But even among the many regime’s most staunch supporters, Khamenei’s absence may create doubt and open up house for once-taboo criticism amid infighting over diplomacy with Washington, which Iran’s most hardline factions oppose.
Some conservative channels contained in the Islamic Republic have accused these negotiating with the West of defying Khamenei’s orders, with some fringe teams even implying a coup was executed by the negotiators – accusations that led to rocks being lobbed at Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian as they took half within the funeral march.
Khamenei’s non-appearance may improve these fractures and go away regime officers topic to additional assaults.
Appearing would have been momentous, serving to to determine his new reign. Ironically, his late father mocked American leaders in a 2005 speech for “disappearing” after the 9/11 assaults, declaring on the time that “if a bitter experience happens to Iran… we ourselves will don battle garb and stand ready to sacrifice.”
“The absence (of Khamenei) suggests either profound paranoia over his security or significant injuries from which has yet to recover sufficiently for a public performance,” Ali Vaez, Iran mission director on the International Crisis Group, instructed NCS.
Yet regardless of the rumors, the choice to not seem on the funeral was undoubtedly a calculated one. In hiding, the supreme leader may obtain the continuity which the Islamic Republic sought to determine by appointing one other Khamenei, and shield crucial determine within the republic, now marked for elimination by Israel and the US.
The idea the regime seeks to guard is “Velayet e-Faqih”, or guardianship. This lies on the coronary heart of the Islamic Republic, with the supreme leader positioned because the authority that can rule over the nation till the return of the hidden Imam – a holy man in Shiite Islam who will emerge on the finish of occasions to carry justice to the world.
Vaez says the position of the supreme leader is to perform each as a public-facing leader of the Islamic Republic and as an inside overseer of the system itself.
In sensible phrases, crucial process now dealing with the youthful Khamenei is to protect unity between the Islamic Republic’s core operators behind the scenes as they wrestle to protect a ceasefire with the US and an settlement that can unlock streams of wealth for Iran.
“The continued absence may raise some question for the regime’s core supporters, but what matters as much is what role he is playing behind the scenes arbitrating among political and security elites who may not see eye to eye on domestic and foreign policy issues,” says Vaez.
Even with out a bodily presence within the public sphere, the concept of a Khamenei ruling from the shadows serves to guard his authority – even when it means leaving the brand new supreme leader open to rumors that he’s lifeless, or perhaps a cardboard cutout, based on the memes.
“Being unseen does not mean being unaccountable,” Vaez added, “either because of the power he wields in principle or that he may lack in practice.”