A extremely unwelcome prospect has crept into Democrats’ heads in current days: Sen. John Fetterman may complicate their already troublesome path to the bulk by switching events.
The nightmare state of affairs for Democrats goes like this: They may flip the required 4 seats within the November midterms — by choosing off troublesome crimson states like Alaska and Ohio — just for Republicans to efficiently win over the Pennsylvania Democrat and rob them of the bulk. Politico’s Jonathan Martin has reported there’s just such a recruitment effort afoot on the correct.
Fetterman’s Washington Post op-ed on Thursday saying he has “no plans to leave” the social gathering ought to make Democrats really feel higher — however not fully.
Because their Fetterman headaches are going nowhere.
The first-term senator famous that, regardless of bucking his social gathering on some high-profile points not too long ago, he nonetheless votes overwhelmingly with Democrats and sides with them on problems with abortion, labor, marijuana and labor rights.
He criticized his social gathering for what he solid as knee-jerk opposition to no matter President Donald Trump does and steered it has modified, somewhat than him.
But he concluded: “I’d be a terrible Republican who still votes overwhelmingly with Democrats.”
The very first thing to notice is that whereas some have solid this as Fetterman rejecting a celebration swap, he didn’t absolutely rule it out.
Yes, it’s vital that he even felt pressured sufficient to write down this op-ed downplaying the prospect, and Democrats ought to be heartened that he did.
But “no plans” just isn’t the identical as “no chance,” and politicians usually use the previous phrasing to maintain their choices open. If issues have been to alter, Fetterman — who’s not going through reelection till 2028 — may say he in truth wasn’t planning on switching events, however that his plans modified due to XYZ.
And plans can change, as we realized in a really comparable state of affairs in the identical state 17 years in the past.
It was March 2009, and outstanding Democrats have been publicly lobbying Republican Sen. Arlen Specter to hitch their facet. They hoped he would give them a sixtieth vote and massively vital filibuster-proof majority.
When I sat down with Specter that month, he threw chilly water on the concept. He stated it was attainable he would run for reelection in 2010 as an unbiased (he was going through a really troublesome Republican major). But he made a principled argument for why the Senate wanted a strong minority social gathering and said wouldn’t run as a Democrat.
Less than a month and a half later, Specter became a Democrat, making it abundantly clear his social gathering swap was about political survival.
These two conditions usually are not the identical. For starters, Specter, a longtime reasonable Republican, had a good likelihood of successful a major as a Democrat. (He wound up dropping 54%-46%.) Fetterman in all probability harbors few illusions about successful a GOP major.
But it may be much more unlikely Fetterman may win a Democratic major. A current Quinnipiac University poll confirmed 73% of registered Republicans within the state stated they authorized of his dealing with of the job, in comparison with simply 22% of Democrats.
And even when the social gathering swap is off the desk, that doesn’t imply the drama is.
While the Senate has a protracted historical past of moderates who quietly vote towards their facet when it largely doesn’t matter, Fetterman appears to relish torturing his social gathering by breaking on some very high-profile points — after which occurring Fox News to speak about it.
That contains the wars with Iran and in Gaza, authorities shutdowns, Cabinet nominees and different points.
And what Fetterman calls his “independent voice” can also be a extremely flamable state of affairs for Democrats due to who he’s and the place he comes from.
While Democrats for years bemoaned West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s tendency to cross over and vote with Republicans, he got here from one of many reddest states within the nation. Democrats ought to have been glad they acquired any votes from a West Virginia senator.
Fetterman, in contrast, comes from a swing state the place a standard-issue, anti-Trump Democrat would in all probability be aggressive. That will proceed making Democrats mad.
And then there’s the long run majority math.
Even if Democrats win a Senate majority this yr, it’s prone to be a really slim one — in all probability 51-49, except the 2026 election is an absolute Democratic rout during which they win a state like Iowa or Texas.
In that state of affairs, Fetterman could possibly be a vital swing senator. Imagine there’s a Supreme Court emptiness, and Democrats wish to hold it open till a brand new president is elected, like Republicans did in 2016. At that time, they’d have to hold Fetterman onside.
Indeed, the most secure play for Democrats proper now’s to play good with Fetterman, even when that’s not simple or cathartic.
If nothing else, the previous few days have reminded them that he may maintain some critical playing cards.