When you consider the trendy ace pitcher, a number of traits come to thoughts. First and foremost, you want a man who’s going to submit 12 months after 12 months. You desire a man who strikes out hitters in buckets and has the wipeout stuff to dominate any major-league lineup on any given night time. By these definitions, it could be tougher to discover a extra archetypical instance within the fashionable sport than seven-year veteran Dylan Cease.
2025 Statistics: 32 video games began, 168 IP, 8-12, 4.55 ERA (94 ERA+), 3.56 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 29.8% Okay%, 9.8% BB%, 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 fWAR
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2026 FanGraphs Depths Charts Projections: 32 video games began, 187 IP, 12-10, 3.61 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 27.6% Okay%, 9.0% BB%, 1.22 WHIP, 3.8 fWAR
Over the final 5 seasons, are you able to identify the beginning pitchers who’ve made no less than 32 begins and struck out no less than 200 batters in every season?
Dylan Cease. That’s it.
Cease burst onto the scene in 2021 when he was made a full-time member of an admittedly insane White Sox beginning rotation that additionally included Carlos Rodón, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dallas Keuchel and a pair of promising homegrown prospects Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet ready within the wings. Since then, Cease has been the mannequin of consistency, main all certified beginning pitchers in begins and strikeouts.
In many respects, Cease is the right litmus check for old style vs. new faculty worth in a beginning pitcher. He might be as maddening as he might be dazzling, relying on which means the wind was blowing the day of his begin. He routinely finishes among the many league leaders in strikeouts and whiff charges, inserting within the 88th percentile or higher in every in 4 out of the final 5 seasons. That being stated, he’s logged an ERA north of 4.50 in two out of the final three seasons and has walked 10 % of batters in his profession.
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In the identical mould as Blake Snell, Cease is a nibbler, preferring to surrender the stroll than the house run. However, there might be video games the place he outright loses the strike zone early and by no means finds it. In these outings, he has an unfortunate propensity to surrender the large hit after placing a number of runners on by way of the free go, thus inflating the ERA. This type lends itself to elevated pitch counts and abbreviated outings, which is how Cease barely certified for the ERA title regardless of going 32 occasions — the appropriate averaging proper round five-and-a-third innings per begin since 2021.
In different video games, he’s able to producing performances like this:
Cease is a Statcast darling and a pitcher who I’m sure pitching coach Matt Blake would like to get his arms on. He throws his four-seamer and slider in equal proportions a mixed 80-plus % of the time. The four-seamer averages 97 mph — sixth-best amongst certified starters — and routinely locations within the ninety fifth percentile in spin price and induced vertical break: the prototypical high-spin rising four-seamer of the trendy sport. His gyro slider is among the many league’s greatest in spin price, whiff price, and Statcast Run Value, the place it graded out as the only greatest pitch in baseball in 2022 and 2024. Blake has had success previously remodeling pitchers with excessive stroll charges, however Cease is a unique story given his pedigree as a longtime ace-caliber starter.
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There’s a joke in sure baseball circles that Cease is an even-year pitcher. In 2022 and 2024, Cease put up a 3.10 FIP, .260 BABIP, and no less than 4.4 fWAR in every season. In 2023 and 2025, he suffered by way of ERAs above 4.50 and a .325 BABIP whereas placing up 3.6 and three.4 fWAR respectively. Make of that what you’ll, however even in his “down” years Cease continues to be acting at a excessive degree, clearing the elite thresholds of a 20-percent strikeout-minus-walk price, 30-percent called-strike-plus-whiff price, and sub-one dwelling run per 9 price.
The projection programs definitely consider Cease can preserve his degree in 2026, projecting him for probably the most fWAR (3.8) of any free agent pitcher. His ERA ought to come down a run — and in equity he owns a sub-3.50 anticipated ERA as a full time starter — they usually even forecast a gentle enchancment in innings, walks, and batted-ball luck. He mirrors the opposite high starter free agent available on the market, Framber Valdez, in being fairly identified portions: each are tremendous sturdy, and Cease goes to strike out a ton of fellows whereas Valdez goes to induce a ton of groundballs.
It’s this consistency and projectability that underpin the contract predictions for Cease, FanGraphs’ Crowd Source challenge predicting a five-year, $130 million pact whereas The Athletic pegs him for six years and $174 million. Split the distinction in AAV and also you’re taking a look at $27 million per 12 months over 5 – 6 years, which has been the going price for pitchers in the identical tier as Cease over the past 5 offseasons. Teams know that pitchers are much more than their ERAs and win-loss data and are prepared to pay them accordingly.
There is a transparent want within the Yankees rotation with each Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón not anticipated again till May on the earliest as each get better from elbow surgical procedures whereas Clarke Schmidt just isn’t assured to pitch in any respect in 2026 after present process Tommy John surgical procedure final summer season. As the Dodgers confirmed of their march to back-to-back titles, you possibly can by no means have an excessive amount of beginning pitching in October — one thing the Yankees have been made painfully conscious of when Max Fried and Rodón received shelled by the Blue Jays within the ALDS.
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Despite the match by way of potential and roster want, a pursuit of Cease feels unlikely from the Yankees entrance workplace. It’s troublesome to think about them handing out a fourth nine-figure contract to a starter on the improper aspect of 30, which Cease will flip in late December. Brian Cashman neither confirmed nor denied whether or not possession handed down a mandate to suppress payroll beneath $300 million — one thing Hal Steinbrenner has repeatedly voiced a want to do and certainly achieved in 2025 — and the potential of stated synthetic cap limits their spending to extra urgent areas of the roster just like the outfield and bullpen, notably with Trent Grisham back in town on the qualifying provide.
In a budget-free world, Cease is precisely the kind of starter you’ll count on the Yankees pitching division to focus on on the free agent market — one with sturdiness, elite instruments, and flashes of ace potential who with just a few minor tweaks would possibly cement himself among the many highest tier of beginning pitcher. However, on this period of eschewing the overwhelming majority of stars on the high of the free agent market, it’s unlikely we’ll see Cease pitching in pinstripes in 2026 and past.