London
Reuters
—
Global demand for oil and pure gasoline could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency mentioned Wednesday, departing from earlier expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels following US
criticism of its local weather focus.
The IEA additionally predicted in its annual outlook that the world would doubtless fail to satisfy its objective to cap the rise in temperatures to as shut as attainable to 1.5 levels Celsius above pre-industrial instances to keep away from essentially the most devastating results of local weather change.
The Paris-based vitality safety watchdog has been beneath stress from the United States for a shift lately towards a concentrate on clear vitality insurance policies as President Donald Trump referred to as on American firms to increase oil and gasoline manufacturing.
During the Biden administration, the IEA predicted that international oil demand would peak this decade and mentioned there must be an finish to funding in new oil, gasoline and coal tasks if the world needed to succeed in net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright has referred to as the IEA’s demand peak projections “nonsensical.” The company is funded by member nations, with the US the most important contributor.
In its World Energy Outlook printed Wednesday, the IEA predicted that beneath a “current policies scenario” oil demand would hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up round 13% from 2024 consumption.
The state of affairs – which the IEA first utilized in 2019 earlier than switching to at least one extra in keeping with a clear vitality transition – relies on present authorities insurance policies and never aspirations to attain local weather targets.
IEA head Fatih Birol mentioned on a press name the state of affairs had been restored to mirror differing decisions governments had been making about vitality.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has beforehand disputed peak oil demand forecasts.
“We hope… we have passed the peak in the misguided notion of ‘peak oil.’” OPEC mentioned on its web site Wednesday.
In the IEA’s “stated policies scenario,” which considers proposed however not essentially adopted insurance policies, oil demand peaks round 2030.
The company says its situations discover a spread of attainable outcomes beneath varied units of assumptions and are usually not forecasts.
Final funding selections for new liquefied pure gasoline tasks have surged in 2025, the report famous. Operations for about 300 billion cubic meters of recent annual LNG export capability will begin by 2030, marking a 50% enhance in accessible provide.
Based on the present insurance policies state of affairs, the worldwide LNG market will increase from round 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and to 1,020 bcm in 2050, pushed by rising energy sector demand fueled by knowledge middle and synthetic intelligence development.
Global funding in knowledge facilities is anticipated to succeed in $580 billion in 2025, the report mentioned, noting that if achieved this is able to surpass the $540 billion a yr spent globally on oil provide.
The report features a state of affairs describing a pathway to scale back international vitality emissions to web zero by 2050.
More than 190 nations pledged on the Paris local weather talks in 2015 to attempt to maintain the world from warming greater than 1.5 levels Celsius.
But the report reveals the world surpassing that in all situations.