Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon breaks down the Week 16 outlooks for the considerably random gamers who went off within the first spherical of the fantasy playoffs.
Kyle Pitts Sr. (@ Arizona Cardinals)
The Week 15 model of Kyle Pitts Sr. was the stuff of legends. It wasn’t simply, by far, the very best sport of Pitts’ profession; it was among the finest performances we’ve ever seen from a good finish in latest reminiscence.
One narrative that I need to push again on is that this was some random eruption for Pitts; that’s simply not true. In reality, Pitts had been constructing to this second over the earlier three weeks. From Weeks 12 to 14, Pitts led all tight ends with a 29.1% goal share. He trailed solely the good Trey McBride in targets and receiving yards; he simply hadn’t scored any touchdowns. He did so in bulk order in Week 15.
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The query now’s about stability. Much of that comes right down to the supply of Drake London. It’s no coincidence that Pitts’ ascension has immediately overlapped with London’s absence whereas coping with a PCL damage. London returned to follow on Wednesday, however head coach Raheem Morris pressured it’s no assure London performs in Week 16.
Pitts has taken 44% of his snaps on passing performs from the slot in these final 4 video games and has been focused on 28% of his routes. He’s averaging 6.9 yards after the catch per reception, up from 3.8 in Weeks 1 to 11. There is a number of overlap within the methods you need to optimally deploy Pitts and London as massive slot choices who can rumble after the catch. That’s why it’s been troublesome — past the truth that Pitts hasn’t at all times been wholesome the previous few seasons — for each to go off without delay.
If London is out once more in Week 16, Pitts is a top-five-ranked tight finish. Should London return, I doubt he’ll be 100% off the PCL damage, so that’s sufficient for Pitts to stay a fantasy starter. I simply received’t count on something near the nuclear-level manufacturing we acquired in Week 15.
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Kenneth Gainwell (@ Detroit Lions)
Much like Pitts above, Kenneth Gainwell has been trending in the direction of an enormous sport just like the one he had in Week 15 for fairly a while. Gainwell owns a large function within the Steelers’ passing offense.
It’s been clear for a while that Gainwell is clearly in Aaron Rodgers’ circle of belief. He values his presence on the sector and is fast to search for him in checkdown conditions. He confirmed this with some feedback after Week 15:
Gainwell is one in all three working backs to steer his crew in catches this season, the others being Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Not dangerous firm for Gainwell. In an upcoming matchup with a Lions crew that may push Pittsburgh to extend its go makes an attempt, Gianwell is as soon as once more in a spot the place he might catch a ton of passes. This is a scenario I wouldn’t thoughts chasing the Week 15 outcomes one bit.
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Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
With Chris Rodriguez Jr. sidelined, Bill was again in our lives. The seventh-round rookie who was the speak of August hype circles dealt with 18 carries in Week 15, essentially the most he’s seen this season. He was capable of run throughout a Giants rush protection that’s been an issue all 12 months. The Commanders received a sport for the primary time since Week 5, so sport script was additionally in Bill’s favor.
Bill’s means to do it once more will all come right down to the supply of Rodriguez. Even if, for no matter purpose, the crew elevates the rookie forward of Rodriquez, who has been the lead again for weeks now, a three-way cut up between these two and Jeremy McNichols is simply too problematic. Not to say, whereas the Eagles’ run protection — who the Commanders will see in Week 16 — has had its gaffs, they’re much higher than the Giants’ entrance.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Tyrone Tracy was the Giants’ clear lead again popping out of the Week 14 bye and ended up being the fifth-best again in fantasy final week. He led the crew with 18 touches and performed on 76% of the snaps. However, he did lose goal-line work to Devin Singletary in resounding trend.
That didn’t matter in Week 15 as a result of Tracy was capable of hit massive performs towards a Commanders protection that’s been hapless all season. The Vikings are a bit extra of a ticky matchup to determine.
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Minnesota permits groups to maneuver the ball down the sector within the run sport, because it ranks thirty first in dashing success fee allowed to working backs since Week 10. Its 4.0 yards per carry allowed is somewhat center of the pack and it usually doesn’t quit lengthy gashes. With all that in thoughts, if Tracy nonetheless doesn’t have goal-line work locked down, he’s extra of a strong RB2 than an RB1, regardless of his massive Week 15 exhibiting.
Troy Franklin (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Troy Franklin has had his moments this season, however has been trending down over the past month with rookie Pat Bryant rising, significantly because the Broncos got here again from their Week 12 bye. With Bryant on the shelf final week, Franklin turned in his finest sport in fairly a while, catching all six targets for 85 yards and a rating.
Franklin really ran fewer routes on the day than Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, who was signed off the Giants’ follow squad in November, final week. The key for Franklin was getting again into the slot. Bryant had taken over the slot function popping out of the bye as a result of he offers them extra measurement and physicality at that spot. Franklin can play outdoors however has extra means to tear massive performs as a pace slot.
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The Broncos already face a tricky matchup in Week 16 towards a sneaky good Jaguars protection. If Bryant is again within the combine for Denver, I’d discover Franklin fairly troublesome to belief.
DJ Moore (vs. Green Bay Packers)
DJ Moore noticed no noticeable bump in Week 14 when Rome Odunze missed a sport with a foot damage he’s been taking part in via this season. The story was fairly completely different in Week 15, when Odunze was dominated out on the final minute and Moore went on to catch two touchdowns.
Against the Browns, Moore set a season-high with 2.3 yards per route, three end-zone targets and a 37.9% air yard share. However, he was solely focused on 16.7% of his routes, which was his seventh-highest mark of the season. Credit to Moore for changing on his alternatives, particularly on the insane Caleb Williams across-the-field throw into the top zone. We simply didn’t see a noticeable bump in his involvement.
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It’s felt like a wrestle for Moore to get constantly concerned on this assault all season. He simply doesn’t actually match the offense and has misplaced alternatives to youthful growing guys like Odunze and Luther Burden within the receiver room. With each of these guys listed as DNP in early practices this week, Moore might see a bump in his workload by default. Even in that situation, he’d nonetheless be only a risky WR3 in a tricky matchup with the Packers in Week 16.
Colby Parkinson (@ Seattle Seahawks)
The Rams’ move to more 13 personnel this season has been a significant talking point in discussions in regards to the crew’s success. For good purpose! It’s been each fascinating and efficient.
One of the large winners from the shift to that alignment has been Colby Parkinson. Ever since Tyler Higbee was positioned on IR after Week 11, Parkinson has been a mainstay for the Rams as a result of he can each block and catch passes from a number of alignments. Since Week 12, Parkinson leads all tight ends and large receivers on the crew with a 72% snap fee, is third in route participation and has caught 4 touchdowns.
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With Davante Adams almost certainly out in Week 16 and Higbee not but prepared to come back off IR, Parkinson is as soon as once more in line for an enormous alternative. Given all of the variables, he’s going to be a top-10-ranked participant on the place for me.
However, it’s price noting that Seattle is among the few groups which were capable of preserve the Rams from printing environment friendly performs out of 13 personnel.
Nevertheless, Parkinson, who did rating towards this crew again in Week 11, is in a strong spot. The Seahawks rank third, first and first in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, working backs and large receivers — however 18th towards tight ends. We typically see this with nice defenses, the place they’re content material to cede manufacturing to this place, relative to their strengths elsewhere.