The killing of Jalisco cartel boss Nemesio Oseguera, aka “El Mencho,” may gasoline a turf battle amongst drug-trafficking gangs in Mexico, analysts say, with the rival Sinaloa cartel already riven by infighting.
The Jalisco and Sinaloa cartels have lengthy fought to dominate the profitable US marketplace for unlawful medication, together with cocaine, heroin and fentanyl trafficking, and they more and more compete for management of unlawful migration into the US.
The US authorities has described the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (recognized by the Spanish-language abbreviation CJNG) as “one of the five most dangerous criminal organizations in the world,” with operations incomes billions of {dollars} in income.
The US State Department designated the CJNG as a foreign terrorist organization in February 2025.
Who takes management of the group, or whether or not it splinters into factional bloodletting, could have a big impact on drug trafficking in the Americas.
Oseguera, founder of the CJNG, had taken benefit of Sinaloa’s disarray, quickly increasing the attain and actions of the group to incorporate gasoline theft, human trafficking and monetary fraud. The Jalisco group even shaped an alliance with half of the Sinaloa cartel to deepen its divisions.
Former Sinaloa leaders Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada at the moment are held in the United States. Guzman was extradited in 2017 and Zambada final yr, spurring a battle for management of the group between Guzman’s sons and a faction loyal to Zambada.
The historical past of trafficking teams, in each Colombia and Mexico, is one of fixed upheaval, pushed by territorial rivalry and greed. Rivals pounce on any signal of weak spot or division.
The Sinaloa battle was fueled by the lack of a transparent household successor, and the similar might now apply to CJNG. El Mencho’s son Rubén Oseguera is at the moment serving a sentence in the United States, having been extradited in 2020. His spouse was arrested in Mexico on money-laundering fees in November 2021. Two brothers are additionally in Mexican jails.
“The Jalisco cartel’s line of succession has been broken,” in keeping with Mexico City-based safety professional David Saucedo. Only one brother stays, together with a stepson who, in keeping with Saucedo, “still lacks influence among other cartel commanders.”
Four CJNG commanders could also be vying for supremacy and “may enter a succession war to define control of the cartel, though a negotiated transition is also possible,” Saucedo stated.
Oseguera was unchallenged as the chief of the CJNG, however rumors that he was sick had already sparked defections. The Mezcales, a splinter faction of the CJNG in the state of Colima, declared 4 years in the past that it was ending its affiliation with CJNG in the perception he had died. The defection led to weeks of gang-related violence.
The CJNG-Sinaloa contest spans a number of Mexican states as the two teams “dispute territorial control for various drug trafficking routes in central and northern Mexico,” in keeping with InSightCrime, which tracks the cartels. One space of intense competitors is Mexicali, capital of the Mexican state of Baja California, which borders the US. Roadblocks have been erected there by cartel factions after El Mencho’s demise.
The two teams are additionally embroiled in a wrestle in the state of Chiapas, on the border with Guatemala, over management of migrant smuggling, in keeping with InSightCrime.
For the Mexican authorities, the battle in opposition to the cartels dangers upsetting violence throughout the nation, as gang members retaliate in opposition to the safety forces and battle one another. Analysts say that CJNG has a presence in additional than 20 Mexican states.
There can also be the danger that CJNG, or factions of it, resorts to narco-terrorism akin to what Colombia endured in the Eighties, when Pablo Escobar primarily declared battle on the state, marked by bombings, assassinations and kidnappings.
Saucedo sees indications of that in the violent response of CJNG members up to now: “narco-terrorism, blockades and fires in grocery stores across Mexico.”
A “total war against the Mexican state” stays a doable state of affairs, Saucedo added. The CJNG has proven a style for such assaults in the previous. Six years in the past, it tried to assassinate Secretary of Public Security Omar Garcia Harfuch, wounding him and killing two bodyguards and a bystander.
“For now, it appears all the main CJNG commanders have united to launch this attack against the Mexican state,” Saucedo stated, aiming to “paralyze economic activity and impose a national and international image cost on the government.”
But the demise of El Mencho can also carry the Mexican authorities a possibility — to maintain the cartels off-balance with additional exact operations in opposition to their leaders.
For now, the safety forces are totally occupied with restoring order, after CJNG members set up tons of of roadblocks throughout a number of states and attacked industrial property.
“It’s not surprising that the bad guys are responding with terror. But we must never lose our nerve,” US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau posted on X.