The largest breakthrough in chopping – edge know-how at the starting of 2026 belongs to “commercial spaceflight”.
With rocket launches, satellite tv for pc networking, and the surging of idea shares, business spaceflight has been continuously trending with its full – industrial – chain presence. Meanwhile, almost 10 business spaceflight enterprises, similar to LandSpace Technology, CAS Space, and Tianbing Technology, are accelerating their dash in direction of IPO, formally kicking off a battle for the “first share in commercial spaceflight”.
If we glance again a bit additional, we’ll discover that this explosion shouldn’t be unintentional. It is an inevitable continuation after China’s business spaceflight “sharpened its sword for a decade” and achieved an all – spherical breakthrough in 2025.
In 2025, elements similar to coverage assist, technological breakthroughs, market demand, and the capital surroundings all got here collectively, immediately propelling the complete business from “technology verification” to “scaled – up and commercialized development”. And 2026 might be a vital verification yr for differentiating the robust from the weak and initially shaping the panorama of China’s business spaceflight.
01
Explosion
If China’s business spaceflight was beforehand in the exploration stage of “single – point breakthrough and concept verification”, then 2025 was really the yr of breaking the impasse. There had been three most direct driving forces behind it.
First, there was an “official announcement” at the coverage degree. In November 2025, the National Space Administration established the “Commercial Spaceflight Department” – the world’s first nationwide – degree devoted regulatory division for business spaceflight. This signifies that business spaceflight has ended its lengthy – standing ambiguous state of “operating outside the system” and has been included into the nationwide area administration system, gaining an “official status”.
Just one month later, on December 26, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued “Guideline No. 9”, clarifying that business spaceflight enterprises are eligible for the fifth set of itemizing requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. In truth, as early as June, the China Securities Regulatory Commission restarted and expanded the scope of software of the fifth set of itemizing requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, explicitly itemizing business spaceflight, synthetic intelligence, and low – altitude economic system as key supported areas, permitting unprofitable enterprises with core applied sciences to record and lift funds. At that point, the window for business spaceflight enterprises to go public opened. After half a yr, the entry situations had been additional refined, and the path for business spaceflight to IPO grew to become quickly unobstructed.
Technological breakthroughs additionally attracted a lot consideration. On December 3, 2025, LandSpace Technology’s Zhuque – 3 provider rocket was launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. Although the restoration of the first – stage rocket failed, the satellite tv for pc efficiently entered the predetermined orbit, and the orbit – insertion accuracy met the necessities, efficiently finishing the maiden flight mission.
This was the profitable orbit – insertion of China’s first liquid oxygen – methane reusable rocket, marking that home non-public business spaceflight enterprises have accomplished the essential engineering verification on the reusable rocket know-how route. Even Elon Musk posted that the Zhuque – 3 included some design components of Starship and had the potential to “defeat the Falcon 9”.
The “restlessness” at the capital degree can’t be ignored both. According to the “China Commercial Spaceflight Industry Development Report (2025)”, the complete financing in the business spaceflight business reached 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a yr – on – yr improve of 32%. But what’s extra noteworthy is the change in the supply of funds: in the early days, most traders in business spaceflight had been VCs with a excessive threat urge for food, however now, industrial funds with state – owned backgrounds have began to enter the market on a big scale.
For instance, LandSpace Technology obtained extra investments from two “state – owned” funds in 2024: in February, the National Industrial Investment Fund (SS) elevated its funding by 450 million yuan, and in December, the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading Fund entered the market with 900 million yuan. Another instance is Deep Blue Aerospace. In July 2024, it obtained an funding of a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of yuan from the Wuxi High – tech Zone Investment and Control Group, and in March 2025, the Taishan Industrial Development Investment Group invested 500 million yuan in it.
When the “national team” will get concerned, it exhibits that the market’s worth judgment of economic spaceflight has undergone a basic change – it’s now not a excessive – threat speculative enterprise in a classy subject however an extended – time period industrial format of nationwide strategic significance. Capital is shifting from monetary hypothesis to strategic positioning.
02
Competing for Space
If insurance policies and capital are the “thrust” for the explosion of economic spaceflight, then market demand is its “gravitational force”. However, this gravitational power is extra intense and pressing than many individuals anticipated.
At the finish of 2025, the official web site of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) disclosed that China submitted an software for frequency and orbital assets for about 203,000 low – orbit/medium – orbit satellites at one time!
This is China’s largest – scale worldwide orbital useful resource software marketing campaign thus far. The information comparability is extra intuitive: as of early 2026, the complete variety of satellites in orbit globally is about 14,000, and the complete variety of satellites in Elon Musk’s Starlink launch plan is simply 42,000. That is to say, the variety of satellites China utilized for at one time is 5 occasions that of the Starlink plan and 15 occasions the complete variety of present satellites in orbit globally.
As quickly as the information got here out, it prompted a world stir, particularly in the United States, which is in direct competitors with China in the business spaceflight subject. Just a number of days after the information was made public, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) of the United States shortly permitted an extra 7,500 Starlink satellites to be deployed by SpaceX, and Elon Musk additionally introduced that the orbital altitude of 4,400 satellites could be lowered from 550 kilometers to 480 kilometers – ostensibly to “reduce the risk of collision”, however insiders can see that that is to “occupy positions”.
Why are everybody so anxious? Because low – Earth satellite tv for pc orbits are non – renewable and extremely scarce public pure assets, and their capability has a ceiling – in line with calculations, the low – Earth orbit can theoretically accommodate solely about 60,000 satellites.
The rule decided by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for nations to really occupy orbital assets is “first come, first served, and expiration invalidation”. It additionally stipulates that the first satellite tv for pc should be launched inside 7 years after the software, 10% of the satellites should be deployed inside 9 years, 50% inside 12 years, and all satellites should be deployed inside 14 years. Otherwise, the software might be routinely cancelled.
What’s extra extreme is that greater than 70% of the “golden orbit” at 500 – 600 kilometers (the place the sign delay may be as little as 20 milliseconds, the optimum answer for satellite tv for pc communication) has been occupied by Starlink of the United States, and excessive – high quality spectrum assets for civil communications similar to L, S, and C bands have lengthy been divided up by developed nations in Europe and the United States. If China doesn’t speed up its format, it could even have “no spectrum available” for the improvement of 6G in the future.
Therefore, making use of for greater than 200,000 satellites at one time could appear “ambitious”, however it’s truly “forced by the situation”.
With the 203,000 satellites utilized for this time, the complete variety of satellites China has utilized for has exceeded 250,000. This signifies that in the subsequent 9 years, China should efficiently launch at the very least 25,000 satellites into area, and greater than 120,000 in the subsequent 12 years – a mean of 27 satellites per day.
With such a big – scale launch quantity, it’s inconceivable to attain it solely by the earlier state – led mannequin. Therefore, it’s crucial to introduce market forces and promote the industrialization and scaling – up of the business.
03
IPO Race
Now that there’s market demand and the coverage channel is open, which participant may be the first to face out amongst the many rivals?
Currently, the home business spaceflight subject presents a aggressive panorama of “five rockets taking off simultaneously”: LandSpace Technology, CAS Space, Tianbing Technology, GalaxySpace, and that iSpace are extra energetic and have made extra apparent progress of their IPO processes.
In specific, LandSpace Technology is main the approach. On January 22, it entered the “inquiry” stage, and its itemizing course of has entered a important stage. It has solely been 22 days since its IPO software was accepted on December 31 final yr, and its momentum to grow to be the “first share in commercial spaceflight” on the Science and Technology Innovation Board may be very apparent. It plans to boost 7.5 billion yuan, of which 4.73 billion yuan might be invested in bettering reusable rocket know-how, and a couple of.77 billion yuan might be used for capability constructing.
CAS Space follows carefully behind. It accomplished its itemizing steering on January 24 and ranks second in the course of. Tianbing Technology and GalaxySpace each accomplished the submitting for itemizing steering in October final yr and lately up to date their steering progress, belonging to the second echelon. On the opposite, iSpace, which began the earliest, has made gradual progress in its IPO. It began the IPO steering as early as December 2020 and is now in its twenty second part.
The purpose for such an apparent differentiation lies in the inflexible necessities of the fifth set of requirements on the Science and Technology Innovation Board – the first profitable orbit – insertion of a payload by a medium – to – massive – sized provider rocket utilizing reusable know-how should be achieved.
This is a really clear inflexible indicator: if an organization fails to satisfy it, it has no probability of itemizing, regardless of how good its efficiency is. In this manner, enterprises nonetheless adhering to the single – use stable rocket know-how route are immediately excluded from the itemizing record, and the itemizing qualification is used as a lever to power the business assets to focus on reusable know-how.
Why is that this regulation in place? There is just one core logic: to cut back prices.
It’s a quite simple reality that enormous – scale satellite tv for pc deployment requires a big discount in launch prices. Without reusable know-how, launch prices can’t be diminished; if the prices can’t be diminished, business spaceflight will all the time be an costly and cash – burning recreation and can’t obtain sustainable massive – scale operation.
The information comparability is extra apparent. According to the analysis report of Huayuan Securities, in 2024, the common launch price of China’s business spaceflight was about 75,000 yuan per kilogram, whereas SpaceX, with its mature reusable know-how, had managed the price to about 20,000 yuan per kilogram. This hole truly represents the generational distinction in the enterprise fashions between single – use rockets and reusable rockets.
This additionally explains why LandSpace Technology’s Zhuque – 3, regardless of the failed restoration, continues to be pursued by capital – it’s presently the solely non-public enterprise that may meet the inflexible requirement of “successful orbit – insertion of a reusable rocket”.
04
Gap
However, it can’t be denied that there’s nonetheless a big hole between China and the world’s main degree in the business spaceflight subject.
First, the hole with SpaceX is complete. The improvement of China’s complete business spaceflight business lags behind SpaceX by 10 years – in December 2025, LandSpace Technology achieved the first launch and profitable orbit – insertion (with failed restoration) of a reusable provider rocket, whereas SpaceX first despatched a satellite tv for pc into orbit and achieved a whole restoration by means of the Falcon 9 in December 2015, a full 10 – yr distinction.
In phrases of scale operation and maturity, the hole is even better. In 2025, SpaceX launched 165 occasions all through the yr, almost twice the annual launch occasions of China’s area program. More importantly, the first – stage rocket of the Falcon 9 has been reused over 100 occasions, forming a mature system of “recovery – reuse – iteration”. Not way back, Elon Musk additionally claimed in response to a netizen that in about three years, Starship will be capable of launch greater than as soon as per hour, and the annual launch occasions might be near 10,000.
Second, the business closed – loop has not been established, and the revenue cycle is lengthy. Commercial spaceflight is a typical business with excessive thresholds, excessive funding, and lengthy cycles. From rocket R & D to secure mass manufacturing, it requires steady and enormous – scale capital assist. Before the know-how matures and scales up, the income is nearly negligible.
For instance, LandSpace Technology, which is main the IPO dash, had revenues of 782,900 yuan, 3.9521 million yuan, and 4.2783 million yuan from 2022 to 2024 respectively, however the internet losses in the identical interval reached 804 million yuan, 1.188 billion yuan, and 876 million yuan respectively. Even although the income elevated considerably to 36.4319 million yuan in the first half of 2025, the loss in the identical interval was nonetheless 597 million yuan. From 2022 to the first half of 2025, LandSpace Technology’s cumulative loss has exceeded 3.4 billion yuan.
Industry insiders typically imagine that LandSpace Technology is predicted to take at the very least 5 years or even longer to attain profitability. This can be a typical dilemma confronted by business spaceflight enterprises. This locations extraordinarily excessive necessities on the financing skill of enterprises – earlier than attaining self – sufficiency, steady and secure financing skill is the lifeline. Therefore, IPO turns into essential: it’s the “main artery” for enterprises to acquire steady capital infusion.
The imperfection of the industrial ecosystem can be a serious problem. According to the information of Founder Securities, the international area economic system market scale was about 2.9 trillion yuan in 2024, of which launch companies accounted for under 2%, whereas satellite tv for pc manufacturing, floor gear, and satellite tv for pc companies accounted for five%, 38%, and 26% respectively, and the complete business satellite tv for pc business accounted for a complete of 71%.
This signifies that rocket launch is simply the place to begin of the business, and the actual worth creation and revenue supply lie in the downstream functions and companies. The success of SpaceX lies in its formation of a optimistic cycle of “low – cost launch – Starlink networking – user payment – profit reinvestment in R & D”, operating by means of the complete business ecosystem closed – loop.
However, presently, most Chinese business spaceflight enterprises are nonetheless in the “launch service” stage, and the downstream commercialization situations similar to satellite tv for pc functions and information companies have simply began, and a robust worth closed – loop and revenue mannequin haven’t been fashioned.
05
Key Verification
Based on the above evaluation, 20