When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago this week, the encounter will mark greater than a diplomatic reunion.
For Netanyahu, it’s the opening act of his 2026 reelection bid, through which the US President is positioned to play a starring position.
Israel is formally scheduled to maintain elections in October 2026, although that timeline may collapse sooner. Two speedy threats loom over Netanyahu’s coalition: the ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis and the March 2026 funds deadline. Either may set off early elections.
Netanyahu’s sixth authorities — spanning 18 years throughout a number of premierships — has weathered extraordinary turmoil, from the 2023 judicial overhaul that introduced hundreds of thousands into the streets, by way of the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault that killed over 1,200 Israelis, to the grinding warfare that adopted, leaving Israel diplomatically remoted and bitterly divided.
Yet Netanyahu has endured. His coalition has outlasted each Israeli authorities of the previous six years, giving him time to restore Israel’s regional deterrence whereas avoiding substantial inquiry into the decision-making previous its unprecedented security lapse on October 7, 2023.
Recurring opinion polls since October 2023 present his coalition falling in need of the 61-seat Knesset majority wanted to govern, hovering between 49 and 54 seats. His reelection technique seems to hinge on a easy calculation: Run so far as potential from the failure of October 7, and rely on Trump to assist rewrite that narrative at the poll.
“The US president is going to be central – if not the lead – in Netanyahu’s reelection strategy,” mentioned Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who beforehand labored for the prime minister.
The alliance has precedents. During Israel’s tumultuous 2019-2020 election cycles, Likud plastered Israeli streets with billboards exhibiting Trump and Netanyahu shaking fingers, emblazoned with “Netanyahu, in a different league.” Trump delivered symbolic gestures at essential marketing campaign junctures: recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019, unveiling an earlier Palestinian peace plan in 2020 and spearheading the Abraham Accords.
More just lately, Trump championed Netanyahu’s pardon campaign, publicly interesting to Israeli President Isaac Herzog throughout an October tackle to the Knesset celebrating the Gaza ceasefire. “Hey, I have an idea, Mr. President – why don’t you give him a pardon?” Trump requested, dismissing Netanyahu’s corruption fees as trivial issues of “cigars and champagne.”
The episode set off a Likud-aligned marketing campaign that culminated in Netanyahu’s own formal request for clemency. In a video accompanying his submission, Netanyahu referenced Trump’s advocacy, asserting it could “enable both leaders to promote vital interests during a time of fleeting opportunity.”
Shtrauchler identifies that Knesset tackle as “de facto the launch of his election campaign, managed by the best campaigner in the world, Donald Trump.”
“Trump will probably reappear on Netanyahu’s campaign posters as he has in the past,” Strauchler mentioned. “His presence will hover over the campaign. But it’s about quality, not quantity.”
And certainly, a well-informed Likud supply acquainted with the planning says Netanyahu has already mentioned internet hosting Trump in Israel throughout his marketing campaign, for a second visit since his return to the White House.
The Israeli prime minister’s workplace declined a NCS request for remark.
The numbers clarify why. A September 2025 Gallup poll on Israeli life confirmed US management approval amongst Israelis at 76%, in contrast to Israel authorities management’s 40%. The Gaza ceasefire deal, credited to Trump’s mediation and willpower, solely strengthened the US president’s Israeli model.
Netanyahu’s pitch, Israeli insiders assess, will concentrate on diplomatic spectacles: Expanding the Abraham accords, normalization with Saudi Arabia, and reshaping the Middle East – all symbiotic with Trump’s want for a Nobel Peace Prize, which Jerusalem is actively selling. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu loyalist, just lately teamed with US House Speaker Mike Johnson to launch a worldwide parliamentary initiative urging leaders worldwide to help Trump’s nomination for the 2026 award.
“The most important thing for Netanyahu’s is his legacy,” Shtrauchler mentioned. “His message will be that he has achieved much, but his mission isn’t over – there’s still the Iranian threat, and there are still peace deals to be made.”
Yet Trump’s imaginative and prescient of historic Middle East peace has not materialized and nonetheless faces important obstacles. The Gaza ceasefire is fragile, with Trump urgent Israel to speed up Phase 2 – however no worldwide power has materialized to govern Gaza, and prospects of Hamas disarming appear distant. Arab nations that had been anticipated to rush into the Abraham Accords stay hesitant, and Saudi normalization is nonetheless distant.
Divides exist in different regional theaters. On Syria, Trump’s embrace of the Al-Sharaa regime contrasts with Israel’s willpower to keep a buffer zone. On Lebanon, Washington pushes for diplomacy whereas Jerusalem doubts Beirut’s capacity to restrain Hezbollah with out one other navy marketing campaign.
Iran stays a essential flashpoint, with Israel intently monitoring Tehran’s nuclear enrichment and growingly involved with its ballistic missile actions. Both leaders touted the transient “12-day war” as a triumph, however Tehran’s nuclear and missile ambitions have hardly slowed. Israeli officers doubt Trump will rush to authorize one other main Israeli navy operation in opposition to Iran, significantly after the fallout after Israel’s controversial September strike on Hamas management in Doha.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly mentioned in an announcement, “Israel has had no better friend in its history than President Trump.”
“We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to successfully implement the President’s 20 Point Plan for Peace and strengthen regional security in the Middle East,” Kelly mentioned. “As he has repeatedly stated in his first and second terms, the President is committed to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”
The most politically charged area is nonetheless Gaza, the place Trump seeks progress on the subsequent part, whereas Netanyahu faces constraint from his right-wing coalition resisting any additional withdrawals. Israeli sources recommend Netanyahu might search approval for yet one more navy operation inside Gaza earlier than agreeing to advance the ceasefire – a remaining present of power to fulfill his companions earlier than making additional concessions.
“Netanyahu is not operating in a vacuum,” notes a former Israeli official. “Jared Kushner and other key figures surrounding Trump, as well as Trump’s Gulf allies and friends in Turkey and Qatar, are growing frustrated with Netanyahu’s delays on the Gaza ceasefire plan and are wary of any maneuver that could derail broader regional stability.”
Netanyahu’s strategy, these sources point out, possible entails assembling a complete linkage package deal: progress in Gaza tied to safety ensures in opposition to Iran and Lebanon, lodging of home political timelines, and doubtlessly help for his pardon marketing campaign.
“Netanyahu always works the linkages,” a senior Israeli official mentioned. “He trades movement on one front for compensation on another. It seems likely he will need to hand phase 2 to Trump, so the key question is what he will get in return – US backing for another strike in Iran’s nuclear facilities, for instance, or support for military action in Lebanon.”
Even if historic breakthroughs don’t materialize, Trump presents one thing equally beneficial: consideration. Every presidential tweet, visit or assertion will dominate headlines, steal the highlight from Netanyahu’s opponents and provides Israelis one thing else to focus on moreover the failure of October 7.
“I believe their alliance is very strong and grounded in understanding and shared views,” Shtrauchler mentioned. “There may be disagreements or clashes, but they see eye to eye and are capable of working them out. Until now, they’ve been coordinated all along. Netanyahu delayed many moves until Trump’s election victory – and he expects to receive the same support in return.”
In previous races, Trump’s interventions helped Netanyahu keep away from defeat – however by no means secured a decisive victory. Between 2019 and 2021, he failed to type a steady coalition, finally triggering 5 elections in 4 years.
Trump stays most likely the strongest card in Netanyahu’s political deck – however as shut historical past reveals, that might not be sufficient to grant him a successful hand.
NCS’s Donald Judd contributed to this report.