The hits preserve coming for Republicans forward of the 2026 midterm election. But even amid a collection of panic-inspiring results for the GOP, a new final result in Texas stands out.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet pulled an upset in a Fort Worth-area district, beating Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57%-43% in a runoff election in a solidly Republican district.
Let’s break down why it’s a big deal, together with some caveats.
Democrats have been overperforming in special elections by big margins just about ever since President Donald Trump gained the 2024 election. But Texas is one of many largest swings up to now.
While Trump gained the district by about 17 factors in 2024, the Democrat held a 14-point lead with almost all the vote counted as of Sunday morning. That’s a roughly 31-point distinction, on the margins, and one of many celebration’s strongest current particular election performances.
By method of comparability, the big Democratic overperformances in congressional races that acquired a lot of consideration final yr had been typically in the high teens and low 20s.
Also, this would be the first time a Democrat has represented the northern a part of Tarrant County in the state Senate since the early 1980s, in response to longtime native political journalist Bud Kennedy.
Many of the most important overperformances in particular elections come in tiny state legislative districts, the place bigger swings can occur with only a few voters. But the ninth District in the Texas state Senate is not tiny.
In truth, it’s greater than a US congressional district.
There are fewer state Senate districts (31) than congressional districts (38) in Texas. So this district is residence to nearly 1 million people, in contrast with fewer than 800,000 to your common congressional district.
Trump acquired concerned – and it didn’t work
The race was vital sufficient to earn the involvement of the national committees, prime statewide Republicans and even Trump.
Trump posted three times concerning the race in current days, in clear hopes of juicing Election-Day turnout for Republicans.
But it didn’t work. In truth, in a fairly uncommon prevalence nowadays, Democrats really did higher on particular Election Day than in early voting. While Rehmet gained early voting 56-44, he gained day-of voting 58-42, in response to results from Tarrant County.
Trump’s name clearly wasn’t heeded.
Wambsganss, a well-connected native political activist, additionally far outraised Rehmet, a machinist union chief and Air Force veteran.
The most up-to-date fundraising filings final week confirmed she had raised greater than $2.5 million all through her marketing campaign, in contrast with lower than $400,000 for Rehmet.
The upset is one factor; the place it occurred is one other.
Tarrant County is typically considered a main bellwether county, not simply in Texas however nationally.
It’s residence to main protection contractors and has lengthy been an epicenter of Christian nationalism. It has been strongly Republican for many years and was a hotbed of tea celebration activism throughout former President Barack Obama’s time period. But it’s additionally turn into extra aggressive in current years.
If there’s a place the place Democrats would like to make beneficial properties, it’s one like this.
It’s additionally the type of upset that can in all probability inject some Democrats with hope of doing the unthinkable: profitable a US Senate race in Texas this yr. Democrats want to tug upsets in purple states to flip that chamber.
But that’s a tall hill to climb, given Democrats haven’t gained statewide in Texas for the reason that Nineties. And Democrats’ hopes might relaxation on the suitable candidates profitable the primaries – particularly state Attorney General Ken Paxton profitable on the GOP facet. Paxton is typically considered as extra beatable than GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
There are some vital caveats with regards to how inspired Democrats ought to really feel.
The big one, as at all times, is that particular elections aren’t at all times predictive of the approaching, recurrently scheduled election. It’s fairly evident nowadays that Trump’s base consists disproportionately of voters who don’t end up as a lot in lower-profile races.
This race additionally had a low turnout – doubtless owing to the truth that it was held on an uncommon day, Saturday, throughout an unseasonably cold time in Texas. There had been fewer than 100,000 votes, in contrast with about 180,000 for the much-watched current particular congressional election in Tennessee. And as famous, that Tennessee race was in a smaller district.
(At the identical time, the Democrat additionally considerably overperformed the same old Democratic vote share in the first, which was held on the recurrently scheduled Election Day in November and which featured greater turnout – almost 120,000 voters. Back then, Rehmet took 48% and almost gained the seat with out a runoff.)
And then there are the native politics.
Wambsganss is a longtime activist who performed a vital position in a social conservative push to take control of local schoolboards earlier this decade. But there is proof that it went too far for voters, who changed a variety of the partisans with extra reasonable members in later elections.
It appears attainable she alienated some reasonable voters and even some Republicans, whom Rehmet aimed to flip.