The Kansas City Chiefs‘ offense ranks third in EPA per play and fourth in success charge. Rashee Rice is again. Xavier Worthy is in the center of his second 12 months. After sturdy moments at earlier factors this season, this was imagined to be the level the place they actually took off.
It doesn’t fairly really feel like we’re in that ascension second, does it?
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As it stands in the present day, Kansas City could be on the outdoors trying in at the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2014, 4 seasons earlier than Patrick Mahomes would start a 12 months as the beginning quarterback. After dropping each video games on both facet of its bye week, its season is in hassle. The New York Times playoff simulator at the moment offers the group a 56% probability to make it however a mere 9% probability to win the AFC West. If they lose this week to the 9-2 Colts, that drops to 39%.
They actually can’t afford something multiple extra loss the remainder of the manner, as they face an AFC group in all however one week (Colts, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, Raiders) and a loss to 2 of these groups takes them south of 20%.
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There are myriad explanation why issues have began to crumble for the offense the final two video games, when it scored a mixed 40 factors in opposition to the Bills and Broncos.
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The lack of an explosive run sport has been crippling for this group the final two years. The Chiefs have the lowest stuff charge (runs for zero or damaging yards) at 11% this season, however are tied with the Titans for the lowest explosive speeding charge (runs of 12-plus yards) at 5%. Over the final two seasons, they rank dead-last. It’s a byproduct of a lack of expertise at the operating again place and a lack of dedication philosophically to the run sport from the teaching workers.
As extra groups are doing a higher job than ever to marry their run and move video games in maintaining defenses guessing, along with getting again beneath heart and operating downhill, the Chiefs have been content material to reside of their RPO-heavy world of days passed by. Kansas City ranks sixth in success charge on under-center operating again runs this season however the 72 makes an attempt rank twenty ninth. The Chiefs’ 3.8 yards per keep it up shotgun operating again runs ranks twenty eighth, they usually common -0.11 EPA per carry, a bottom-10 mark.
There is a purpose that you just’re by no means all that enthusiastic about any Chiefs operating again in fantasy football. Standing pat on the room that they had final season, outdoors of including a scheme-touched, former receiver, challenge participant in seventh-rounder Brashard Smith, was baffling in the offseason. And it one way or the other seems to be worse after passing on the worth of a mere third-rounder to accumulate Jets RB Breece Hall at the NFL commerce deadline.
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I’d argue, nevertheless, that the greater concern for Kansas City is the passing sport; it follows a comparable path of misevaluation and stubbornness.
The Chiefs’ huge receivers have been a topic of fantasy football fascination this offseason, primarily as a result of, on paper, it appeared that, as soon as Rashee Rice was again on the discipline, they’d have the best-looking corps round Mahomes since the Tyreek Hill commerce. However, that discourse didn’t acknowledge that the Chiefs have pursued a particular kind of huge receiver in the Andy Reid period. It’s an archetype of a receiver that requires role-catering through designed touches and by shifting round the formation to create mismatches. That’s not essentially a knock on the gamers individually, however when your room is collectively made of men like this, it’s a downside. This is especially true when you need to line up and play in opposition to man protection. The stats bear that out this season, as Mahomes is one in every of the league’s least efficient passers in opposition to man protection.
I discussed above that that is a dead-horse concern for me. And belief me, it’s not one I’m simply beating in hindsight both. I’ve mentioned for years the Chiefs’ full disregard of chasing a receiver who can win one-on-one matchups in opposition to man protection and why it’s a limiting think about the offense. We don’t have to act like they haven’t tried to get assist for this room; they’ve. They’ve simply chased duplicative gamers at the place, at finest, and the outright flawed varieties, at worst.
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Right after they misplaced the Super Bowl to the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this 12 months, when all the discourse justifiably surrounded what they wanted to do alongside the offensive line to enhance the safety, I insisted that they need to not ignore including a “real receiver” to the combine who didn’t require the function catering of gamers of their present room.
Obviously, they disagreed. And right here we’re.
Their high three receivers in routes run since Week 7 are Rice, Worthy and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Their 2024 success rates vs. man coverage in Reception Perception have been as follows: Rice at 64.5%, Worthy at 60.2% and Brown at 50%. Theoretically, Rice, who’s an elite zone-beater in Reception Perception, is their most suitable choice. However, his 64.5% success charge falls at the thirty third percentile amongst all gamers I’ve charted since 2014.
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Even additional down their depth chart, high reserve JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t cracked 60% since his rookie season and the rookie they added, Jalen Royals, was a close to carbon copy of Rice as a uncooked prospect at the decrease ranges with a sub-Fiftieth percentile success charge vs. man protection.
On the season, Tyquan Thornton holds a slight lead over Brown in yards per route run vs. man protection at 1.84. And even he’s boosted by large performs, as he ranks a team-high sixty fifth out of 124 huge receivers with 100-plus routes run in first downs per route run in opposition to man protection.
Why have the Chiefs double- and triple-downed on this archetype of receiver? That’s a trickier query to reply than figuring out the issues. Reid has forgotten extra football than I’ll ever know. I don’t assume to be smarter than one in every of the finest head coaches of all time. However, my guess is that that is a symptom of overconfidence in the scheme. It’s an earned hubris; Reid’s offense has persistently gotten this group to the mountaintop. The logic possible goes that this offense can scheme round and spotlight the different areas of power current in the video games of Worthy and Rice, particularly. Yet, in some unspecified time in the future, this turns into a sport of gamers, not items on a chessboard. So, if you get into sure situational moments, you want the gamers to line up and win at a excessive degree.
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Based on what we find out about the wideouts, there needs to be extra suspicion than there typically is in media discourse that they’ve the instruments in the equipment to come back out on high when these instances arrive.
It’s to not say that is all on the receivers and poor Mahomes is innocent. The numbers on his deep passing have been problematic for years and there are many reps on movie the place he leaves vertical performs on the discipline.
Those are actual and a a part of the dialog. Yet, the downside is that, if you don’t have that receiver who can persistently win on a route-by-route foundation in opposition to man protection and then you definately miss a type of deep photographs, it turns into much more traumatic than it ought to. You can depart a type of performs with disappointment, and say, “We’ll get them next time,” whilst deflating as they’ll really feel. However, when you have got the personnel gap this group does, subsequent time doesn’t come alongside almost typically sufficient, and it makes these misses reek of deflation.
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Nate Tice famous that their means to assault downfield and alongside the boundary persistently has evaporated in comparison with Mahomes’ early profession. Did he overlook how one can make these throws or did the personnel change? You inform me.
Line that graph up with Rice’s route charts in Reception Perception. Rice is a high-end zone beater who wins on horizontal routes like digs, crossers and slants. He doesn’t run, neither is he all that able to operating at a excessive degree, the static premier routes that beat man like go routes, curls, and so forth. The same can be said for Worthy, and it is the major purpose he’s been a disappointment in fantasy this season.
Rice is an elite fantasy receiver who ought to proceed to pile up manufacturing. I really like him in his present function and he ought to proceed to be one in every of the highest-utilized receivers in the sport, enjoying on this large slot, YAC monster beneath place in opposition to zone protection. However, pretty much as good as he’s in any respect that, his sport not with the ability to stretch past these areas contributes to how tight the passing sport feels, and his return off suspension, until he developed as a participant, was by no means going to unravel these issues.
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Even Mahomes himself willingly admitted the struggles in opposition to man protection are a huge downside for the offense. Not solely that, he pointed to it being a cascading impact that creates extra points, which he didn’t say, however are additionally compounded by a few of the issues famous through the run sport.
It’s no shock that that is a large speaking level now, contemplating the Chiefs’ Week 11 opponent. The Broncos play man protection on 44% of their third- and fourth-down performs this season, per Fantasy Points Data. That’s the eighth-most amongst NFL defenses, and their 0.25 factors per dropback allowed is the third-best. Now, it’s on the scouting report and you may guess groups will lean into it extra typically in opposition to Kansas City.
That will embrace the Chiefs’ huge Week 12 sport in opposition to the Colts. Indianapolis performs man protection on 50% of its third- and fourth-down performs this season, per Fantasy Points Data. That’s the fourth-most amongst NFL defenses, and its 0.34 factors per dropback allowed is sixth-best. You can guess a large purpose they acquired Sauce Gardner at the NFL commerce deadline was to maximise and weaponize these man-coverage performs. The group can also be set to get again Charvarius Ward at the different beginning nook spot, who may thrive in man protection.
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To step except for the doom-and-gloom, the Chiefs offense can nonetheless be a nice unit regardless of this obtrusive flaw. The league is a predominantly zone-heavy operation on protection and this unit is lethal in opposition to it. Mahomes ranks fifth in adjusted yards per try, second in success charge and first in EPA per dropback in opposition to zone protection. So, for the overwhelming majority of their performs, the offense goes to be electrical. That may make them greater than harmful sufficient to make a run in the playoffs in the event that they run the desk and get in. Yet, with the protection cut up as huge as they’re, and the purpose for the delta really easy to identify, there will probably be moments, if not outcomes of video games, thwarted by the areas by which they arrive up quick.
For a group that’s not moonwalking its strategy to a division title for the first time in years, that’s more durable to reside with than regular.