Iran’s clerical regime now faces the prospect of looking for a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following his killing in joint US-Israeli strikes.
The veteran leader, who dominated with an iron fist for practically 4 many years, doesn’t have an formally declared inheritor. Instead, an elected physique of 88 senior clerics, often known as the Assembly of Experts, will choose the subsequent leader.
It’s a process that has solely been carried out by the clerical physique as soon as since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, when Khamenei was rapidly chosen on the demise of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini greater than three many years in the past.
The ruling institution will need to transfer rapidly to indicate stability in the republic, with members of the meeting anticipated to convene quickly to deliberate over attainable candidates earlier than naming Khamenei’s substitute.
But it’s unclear whether or not they may even danger any gathering given US President Donald Trump has vowed that the joint US-Israeli bombing marketing campaign concentrating on the regime will proceed in the days forward.
The jurists would want to decide on a successor who meets the {qualifications} stipulated in the structure. The new leader should be male, a cleric with political competence, ethical authority, and loyalty to the Islamic Republic. The meeting might interpret the guidelines to exclude reformist clerics who favor better social freedoms and engagement with the outdoors world.
NCS takes a have a look at some of the contenders for the place, in keeping with specialists and analysts.
The second son of Khamenei, Mojtaba is thought to wield vital affect behind the scenes and has robust hyperlinks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the strongest army physique in the nation, in addition to its Basij volunteer paramilitary pressure.
But father-to-son succession is frowned upon in the Shiite Muslim clerical institution and significantly in a revolutionary Iran that took place after toppling a extensively reviled monarchy. An extra hurdle is that Mojtaba just isn’t a high-ranking cleric and has no official position in the regime. He was sanctioned by the US in 2019.
A lesser-known determine, Arafi is a longtime cleric with a monitor report in authorities establishments who was additionally a confidant of Khamenei.
He at present serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the highly effective Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and legal guidelines handed by parliament. He can also be head of Iran’s seminary system.
According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, Khamenei’s willingness to nominate Arafi to senior and strategically delicate positions confirmed he had “a great deal of confidence in his bureaucratic abilities.” Still, Arafi isn’t identified to be a political heavyweight and doesn’t have shut ties to the safety institution.
He is alleged to be tech-savvy and fluent in Arabic and English, in addition to having printed 24 books and articles, Vatanka wrote.
Mirbagheri is a hardline cleric and a member of the Assembly of Experts who represents the most conservative wing of the clerical institution.
He was just lately reported to have justified the excessive demise toll in Israel’s battle in Gaza by saying that the demise of even half the world’s inhabitants is “worth it” if it achieves closeness to God.
According to IranWire, an activist outlet, he’s strongly against the West and believes a battle between believers and infidels is inevitable. He at present heads the Islamic Sciences Academy in the northern holy metropolis of Qom.
Khomeini is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, giving him spiritual and revolutionary legitimacy.
He serves as the custodian of the Khomeini mausoleum however hasn’t held public workplace and seems to have little affect with the nation’s safety equipment or ruling elite. He is thought to be much less hardline than many of his friends and was barred from operating for the Assembly of Experts in 2016.
Bushehri is a senior cleric intently linked to the establishments that handle succession, significantly the Assembly of Experts, the place he serves as first deputy chairman.
He is alleged to have been near Khamenei however has a low profile domestically and isn’t identified to have robust ties to the IRGC.