Yet one other spat over territory is rocking the troubled US-Canada relationship – and it’s not a results of a Donald Trump menace to flip his northern neighbor right into a 51st state.
This week, Canadian chief Mark Carney as soon as once more urged Trump to “respect Canadian sovereignty” after the Financial Times reported that State Department officers had met thrice since final April with leaders of a gaggle that desires to see the province of Alberta secede from Canada.
The group, named the Alberta Prosperity Project, has been pushing for a referendum on Alberta independence and, according to an X post by certainly one of its leaders, plans to ask US Treasury officers for a $500 billion line of credit score to “support the transition to a free and independent Alberta.”
A White House official downplayed US involvement to NCS, saying that “administration officials meet with a number of civil society groups. No support or commitments were conveyed.”
But the studies have sparked new anger in Canada because it seeks to current a united entrance towards the Trump administration’s tariffs and threats to its territory. The chief of British Columbia, a neighboring province, likened the outreach by the Albertan group to “treason.”
Here’s what we find out about the Alberta independence motion and the chance the province might break off from the remainder of Canada.
Alberta is an oil-rich province in western Canada, roughly the dimension of Texas.
Home to about 5 million individuals, the province is crossed by the Rockies mountain vary and vacationer locations together with Banff and Lake Louise.
The province has a singular political and cultural identification, pushed by its robust vitality and agricultural sectors, dedication to financial individualism, and low taxes. Frequently dubbed “the energy province,” Alberta has oil sands that account for about 84% of Canada’s complete crude oil manufacturing.
Politically, it’s thought-about the bastion of conservatism in Canada, although its city facilities, Calgary and Edmonton, are extra progressive.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been pleasant with Trump and different Republicans, paying a go to to the president’s non-public Mar-a-Lago membership final January. That’s come at the same time as her counterparts in different provinces have banded collectively towards Trump and his threats to annex Canada and undermine its financial system.
Separatist Albertans have lengthy felt like their pursuits are not properly represented in Ottawa.
They argue the federal authorities’s efforts to cease local weather change are holding again Alberta’s oil trade; that they pay greater than they get again via federal taxes; and that their conservative values are drowned out by the extra liberal and populous jap provinces.
“Western alienation has existed since confederation and certainly since Alberta became a province in 1905,” stated Michael Solberg, a accomplice at strategic advisory agency New West Public Affairs, who served as a political staffer in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s authorities.
“Though, it tends to rise during periods when Albertans feel Ottawa is making decisions that directly harm their way of life.”
Federally mandated COVID-19 lockdowns and greater than a decade of Liberal management in Ottawa precipitated simply that, and the temperature has solely picked up as the remainder of Canada has united in patriotism towards Trump.
Soon after Carney’s Liberals rode a wave of anti-Trump sentiment to win the 2025 federal election in April, the Alberta legislature handed a regulation making it simpler to set up a referendum on independence.
However, the separatist motion lacks a frontrunner or structured marketing campaign and is “driven by a handful of outspoken activists and mostly amplified online,” Solberg stated. None of the separatist political events at the moment maintain seats in the Alberta legislature.
The return of Trump, a pro-oil conservative, to the White House has buoyed the secession motion and, for some, reshaped its finish aim.
At a rally for Alberta independence last summer attended by NCS, supporters donned MAGA-style “Make Alberta Great Again” hats, praising Trump as “North America’s best asset” and a possible ally for secessionists.
While most attendees at the rally needed to see Alberta turn out to be a completely impartial country, some confirmed their assist for one other risk: that Alberta might turn out to be the 51st US state.
In February, a billboard appeared alongside the freeway between Calgary and Edmonton, urging onlookers to inform Premier Smith that Alberta ought to “Join the USA!” superimposed over an image of her shaking arms with Trump. It was funded by a gaggle which bears the tagline “Canadians for the 51st State.”
Top Trump officers have additionally confirmed assist for Albertans in search of independence.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated Alberta is a “natural partner for the US” in an interview with the right-wing TV station Real America’s Voice final week.
“They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people,” he stated, including he had heard there could also be a referendum quickly.
“People want sovereignty. They want what the US has got,” he stated.
Bessent claimed Canada gained’t let Alberta construct an oil pipeline to the Pacific, and stated “I think we should let them come down into the US.”
It is “highly likely” that Alberta will name a referendum on independence, stated Solberg. Only twice earlier than has a Canadian province referred to as such a plebiscite, each instances in French-speaking Quebec. Most lately, in 1995, voters there solely narrowly determined to stay.
“All signs point to a referendum this Fall on whether Alberta should remain in Confederation,” Solberg stated. “The stakes are high and it’s starting to feel real.”
Another separatist group referred to as Stay Free Alberta has been gathering signatures for a petition to ask the provincial authorities to name a referendum, and a few conferences have drawn massive crowds. The group has till May to accumulate 177,732 signatures from eligible voters.
However, public opinion polling reveals assist for Alberta independence stays comparatively low. A January survey by Pollara Strategic Insights discovered simply 19% of Albertans stated they’d assist secession.
However, a major proportion of individuals supporting the referendum could also be “symbolic separatists,” stated Lori Williams, professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“Some of the people lining up to sign a petition to force a referendum on separation said they simply wanted to send a message to Ottawa so that Alberta would have a stronger negotiating position.”
Another citizen-led petition for a referendum, from the anti-secession facet, has already been permitted, gathering greater than 400,000 signatures.
Some of the loudest critics of the thought come from Indigenous communities, whose treaties with the Canadian state are older than the province of Alberta. Under stress from that group, the authorities added a provision to the referendum invoice that ensures their treaty rights no matter the consequence.
Smith, the province’s chief, has stated she doesn’t assist secession however refused to denounce these lobbying for it, calling their grievances “legitimate.”
Even if the referendum have been to cross, the technique of seceding could be “extraordinarily complex and destabilizing,” Solberg stated.
There is not any roadmap for what secession would entail, Solberg stated, particularly with questions on whether or not the finish aim is to be impartial or to be a part of the US.
“These are unresolved questions, or at least do not yet have great answers, and the legal and economic risks remain immense.”