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Halfway between the 2020 and 2030 census is not the traditional time to be speaking about redistricting, or gerrymandering, however the situation has nonetheless taken over the political dialog.
Perhaps sensing some political weak point and fearing the lack of their House majority, Republicans are searching for extra congressional seats. But slightly than simply making an attempt to win them on the poll field, they’re primed to conjure further seats by redrawing congressional maps in Texas.
Democrats, uninterested in being outplayed, have threatened to redraw maps in states they management, corresponding to New York and California, though it’s tougher to perform in states that, heretofore, have tried to make the method much less political.
Enabled by conservatives on the Supreme Court, whose selections have chipped away on the Voting Rights Act and given a inexperienced mild to partisan gerrymandering, the Texas effort may set off a full-on redistricting war within the years to return.
So it’s price taking a step again to have a look at redistricting, gerrymandering and why issues work the way in which they do.
The Constitution lays out the overall order of how members of Congress are divided among the many states.
The fundamental define is this: There is a nationwide census each 10 years to determine the variety of residents in every state. House districts are then apportioned to the states primarily based on every state’s inhabitants.
As states develop, they will acquire seats. But if their inhabitants shrinks in contrast with these of different states, they will lose seats.
But the Constitution leaves it to states to find out who, precisely, these members of Congress will signify. In states with multiple US consultant, the method of drawing congressional maps is referred to as redistricting. Some states give that energy to their legislatures. Others have assigned the duty of redistricting to nonpartisan or bipartisan commissions.
The Constitution says that “the whole number of free persons” ought to be counted. The authentic model excluded “Indians not taxed” and counted solely “three fifths of all other Persons.” That ugly acknowledgment of slavery is one of many few mentions of the nation’s authentic sin within the Constitution. The 14th Amendment, enacted after the Civil War, eliminated the three-fifths clause and declared everybody born within the US to be a citizen.
Now, notably, Trump desires to end birthright citizenship as one option to tackle undocumented immigration. Republicans additionally wish to exclude undocumented individuals from the census, one thing Trump tried and failed to perform in 2020.
What is gerrymandering?
It’s the drawing of political maps for partisan acquire. Republicans and Democrats each do it, however Republicans have extra overtly embraced the method. In apply, it’s the equal of politicians selecting their voters as a substitute of the opposite method round, which is an inversion of the democratic course of. North Carolina, for example, leans ever-so-slightly towards Republicans in presidential elections, however because of gerrymandering, 10 of its 14 congressional seats are held by Republicans. Democrats have completed the identical in a number of states they management.
Elbridge Gerry was a signer of the Declaration of Independence, however later, as governor of Massachusetts, he signed on to the drawing of a serpentine, salamander-like state Senate district. He is depicted in CGI in a just lately revealed video on the White House Youtube’s page pissed off that his title has been mispronounced ever since. His title ought to sound like Gary, Indiana. But when it comes to redistricting, it’s typically pronounced with a gentle “G,” like Jerry.
What does gerrymandering seem like?
It can seem like inkblot artwork. Cities may be creatively carved as much as unfold like-minded voters to different districts. They will also be strung collectively to push like-minded voters collectively. In the present Texas map, for example, Democratic voters from Austin and San Antonio are each positioned in a single district, related by a sliver of land. In the newly proposed map, these Democratic voters could be unfold to different districts. It is dependent upon what legislators drawing the map are attempting to perform. In Texas, they now wish to add Republican seats.
Quite merely, the White House requested it to. The president’s celebration often loses at the least some seats throughout midterm elections and, in an effort to blunt an anticipated flip towards the him within the subsequent election, President Donald Trump asked Texas to redraw its maps. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott complied by including an agenda merchandise about redistricting to a deliberate particular session of the legislature.
Trump’s Department of Justice is additionally offering some cowl by arguing that a few of the state’s districts, which had been drawn to adjust to the Voting Rights Act, truly violate the US Constitution.
Can Texas Democrats cease this gerrymander?
Probably not, however they’ll strive. A bunch of state Democratic legislators have left the state in an effort to carry all enterprise within the Texas legislature’s particular session to a halt. They’ve tried this tactic earlier than, together with the final time Texas Republicans did a mid-decade gerrymander in 2003. Abbott has issued civil arrest warrants and threatened to take away fleeing Democrats from workplace. The query shall be how lengthy the Democrats stay out of state, in search of refuge in blue states like Illinois and New York. The present particular session lasts for 2 extra weeks. But Abbott can all the time name one other one.
States are largely answerable for the method of drawing maps for the districts they’re apportioned. It’s uncommon, however not unprecedented, to redraw these maps in the course of the last decade. Texas did it beforehand, in 2003. Mid-decade redistricting is prohibited by state regulation in some locations, however not in Texas.
Sure is, at the least underneath federal regulation. The conservative majority on the Supreme Court so took away federal courts’ energy to assessment politically gerrymandered districts in a 2019 case.
“Federal judges have no license to reallocate political power between the two major political parties,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote on the time, drawing the criticism of liberals on the court docket.
Yes. Under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, there are restrictions on how state strains may be drawn to reduce the voting energy of minorities. The Supreme Court is set to hear a case this year over maps in Louisiana that might additional intestine the Voting Rights Act protections.
Districts are additionally purported to have comparatively equal illustration, however that doesn’t all the time work out. Delaware had greater than 990,000 residents for its sole congressional district after the 2020 apportionment, however Rhode Island had about 549,000 each for its two. There are winners and losers within the apportionment course of.
Do Democrats gerrymander too?
Where they will, they do. In Illinois, former Vice President Kamala Harris bought 54% of the vote in 2024, however Democrats, because of gerrymandering, gained 14 of 17 congressional seats. But Democrats have handed away their energy to gerrymander in states like California, the place a nonpartisan fee attracts congressional maps. In pink states with such commissions, they’ve regularly been overturned by state lawmakers, corresponding to in Utah, the place a Democratic seat centered on Salt Lake City was carved up amongst Republican seats.
Texas Republicans initially drew maps to guard incumbents. States like California, which have commission-drawn maps, regularly have extra aggressive seats. Democrats gained most of them in 2024 in California. Republicans are actually eyeing 5 extra seats in Texas primarily based on Trump’s energy within the state in 2024. They’re assuming, for example, that Latino voters who swung towards Republicans in 2024 will proceed to help Republicans. If the nation turns towards Trump, it may, in idea, backfire.
It’s a a lot harder carry. While governors in New York and California have promised to “fight fire with fire,” their fingers are tied by their very own state legal guidelines.
In New York, it would take a multi-year course of to amend the state Constitution.
It could be extra potential in California, however it would nonetheless require a particular election this November to primarily ask voters to undo the nonpartisan course of they created in 2008.
If the Texas maneuver snowballs into efforts to redraw maps in a number of states, Republicans would come out with extra benefit, particularly within the quick time period, according to NCS’s Arit John and Manu Raju. They write:
GOP lawmakers in states corresponding to Missouri and Florida have additionally expressed openness to new maps. Ohio, the place lawmakers should redraw their maps underneath state redistricting legal guidelines, may additionally yield further seats.
Republicans maintain authorities majorities in 23 states in comparison with Democrats’ 15.
Will gerrymandering decide the end result of the 2026 midterms?
The expectation ought to be that help for Trump and Republicans will soften within the coming election. That’s not a worth judgment on their management, however a historic actuality. Every president’s celebration going again to George W. Bush has misplaced the House in a midterm election. That contains Joe Biden’s Democrats in 2022, Trump’s Republicans in 2018, Barack Obama’s Democrats in 2010, George W. Bush’s Republicans in 2006 and Bill Clinton’s Democrats in 1994.
The redrawing of maps may blunt the results of such a flip, however Democrats solely have to win three extra seats to flip the House. If there’s a wave towards Republicans, no quantity of gerrymandering is prone to save that GOP majority.