Early voting data means that Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are heading into the ultimate weekend in a barely stronger place than Kamala Harris was on the similar time final 12 months.
In New York City, Andrew Cuomo could also be in a stronger place than within the major, however there are indicators of elevated exercise from youthful voters, a key a part of Zohran Mamdani’s base.
NCS’s specialists analyzed the pre-election voting data in all three areas, evaluating to 2024 in New Jersey and Virginia to raised mirror the modifications in early voting patterns during the last 4 years.
Although early voting evaluation can present hints about which candidates could also be effectively positioned heading into November 4, it’s unattainable to know who pre-election voters supported or how candidates will do on Election Day, when most of the ballots shall be forged.
In New Jersey, Democrats have turned out at the next fee than Republican voters in each mail and early in-person voting, placing the Democratic candidate for governor, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill, in a stronger place than Harris was final 12 months at this level. Harris finally received the state by about 6 factors.
Through the top of Thursday, registered Democrats led registered Republicans in mail poll returns by over 41 factors, a few factors higher than the 39-point hole at this level final 12 months. But not like final 12 months, Democrats additionally maintain an almost 2-point lead in in-person early voting. Last 12 months at the moment, Democrats trailed in in-person voting by 2 factors.
Mail ballots additionally characterize a bigger portion of the pre-election vote to date. As a consequence, registered Democrats characterize a bigger share of the overall pre-election citizens than they did at this level final 12 months.
Among registered Democrats, a gaggle that may make up the lion’s share of New York City mayoral voters, older voters have turned out extra to date than they did throughout the major, when sturdy backing from youthful voters helped propel Mamdani to a shock victory. But the citizens remains to be youthful than in previous mayoral elections and has solely been getting youthful because the week has gone on.
A NCS evaluation of early voting data from the New York City Board of Elections has discovered that by October 31, about 53% of registered Democratic voters (55% of all voters to date) are ages 50 and up, whereas virtually 16% of Democratic voters are ages 18 to 29 (15% of voters total).
That’s extra weighted in direction of older voters than the overall Democratic major citizens, when about 48% have been 50 or older and about 18% of voters have been 18-29, in keeping with data from L2.
Polls have proven that youthful voters overwhelmingly favor Mamdani, whereas Cuomo, who’s operating as an impartial, has a smaller lead amongst older voters.
This 12 months’s turnout remains to be youthful than the town’s final mayoral election in 2021, when simply 9% of voters have been ages 18 to 29 and 62% have been ages 50 and older.
Over the course of the week, every day turnout amongst Democrats has gotten youthful: whereas older voters outnumbered youthful ones by about 50 share factors on the primary day of early voting, that dropped under 20 factors on the seventh day.
The geographic distribution of Democratic votes has additionally been extra favorable to Cuomo than it was within the June major, with turnout strongest to date in precincts the place Cuomo did finest and comparatively weaker in sturdy Mamdani areas. The most Cuomo-friendly precincts have forged 125% of their major early in-person totals whereas essentially the most Mamdani-friendly precincts have forged 85% of their early voting totals.
Still, if the precinct-level Mamdani vs. Cuomo vote from the first stayed the identical, the modifications to date in geographic distribution alone wouldn’t be almost sufficient for Cuomo to overhaul Mamdani amongst Democratic early voters.
While voters don’t register by social gathering in Virginia, the geographic breakdown of votes forged to date suggests Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in barely stronger place heading into the ultimate stretch than Harris was on the similar level in final 12 months’s election, when she received Virginia by lower than 6 factors.
The geographic distribution of early in-person votes has barely favored Republicans, whereas the distribution of mail ballots is just like what it was at this level final 12 months. But mail ballots, wherein Democrats usually carry out higher, make up a bigger share of the pre-election vote this 12 months (24%) than they did at this level final 12 months (21%), leading to a geographic breakdown of the mixed pre-election vote that’s extra Democratic-leaning relative to the identical level within the 2024 election.
Through Thursday, counties the place Trump received final 12 months are averaging 61% of their in-person votes forged on the equal level final 12 months, whereas Harris-won counties are at simply over 57%. The worst performing counties to date have been locations the place Trump received greater than 75% of the vote – they’re at simply 54% of the in-person votes they’d forged at this level final 12 months.
And that hole between Trump- and Harris-won counties has been narrowing over the course of the final week, dropping from 10 factors to 4 factors now, largely coinciding with an elevated variety of voting areas opening in massive Democratic-leaning counties reminiscent of Arlington and Fairfax.