Yet once more we’ve made it to the weekend. After a chaotic stretch of line motion and harm stories, it’s time to reset, evaluate the panorama and fireplace on a pair extra positions to spherical out the Week 3 college football betting card.
Injury watch
The quarterback carousel is already spinning throughout the nation, and the ripple results are hitting markets rapidly. Three QB’s I’ve been protecting shut observe of:
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Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons has been in a strolling boot all week and hasn’t practiced. Officially “probable,” however message boards recommend it’s nearer to a coin flip.
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Wisconsin QB Billy Edwards appears uncertain to play in opposition to Alabama after initially being listed as questionable. Optimism round him suiting up has all however light.
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Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed ought to be nice. Postgame pressers and market motion verify as a lot, with Aggies cash trimming the unfold from Notre Dame -7 to -6.5 and the entire creeping as much as 50.5.
Injuries assist paint an image of why the market is shifting and can assist seize high quality positions if the information is a bit over exaggerated or the market strikes too far on a participant’s influence. For my early-week bets, you’ll be able to take a look at the Monday article. Looking to make use of a number of the data that the market has given us all through the week, let’s flip to new positions.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-6.5, 63)
The Simmons state of affairs at QB looms giant right here. If he performs at lower than 100%, Ole Miss’ tempo (the core of its offense) takes a severe hit – and can probably imply fewer snaps, extra conservative pacing and fewer explosive sequences. Looking again ultimately yr’s matchup, the entire opened at 57 and closed at 54.5, regardless of that includes a first-round QB and two NFL-bound receivers for Ole Miss. Yes, Ole Miss additionally misplaced a ton of defensive expertise, however this yr’s line is sort of 10 factors greater, which feels inflated given the downgrade in offensive personnel and Simmons’ unsure well being.
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Bet: Arkansas-Ole Miss Under 63
No. 13 Oklahoma (-22, 51.5) at Temple
John Mateer has surged into the Heisman dialog, and the transition with coach Ben Arbuckle working the offense appears seamless. Arbuckle’s quick time period historical past as a heavy favourite is telling: his groups not often let off the fuel. In their two matchups as favorites of 20 or extra final season, Washington State scored 70 and 49 factors below the Arbuckle and Mateer marketing campaign. Temple, in the meantime, employed offensive coordinator Tyler Walker, contemporary off main Montana State to the nation’s high scoring offense on the FCS degree. That philosophy is already seeping into their method, making them a dwell ‘canine to place up factors.
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Last yr’s matchup closed at 57.5 with much less offensive optimism on either side. Dropping this yr’s complete by practically a landing doesn’t make sense given the upgrades.
Bet: Oklahoma-Temple Over 51.5
Duke at Tulane (-1.5, 54)
This matchup is value highlighting due to how the market dealt with it. Tulane opened as practically a 4-point favourite following Duke’s blowout loss to Illinois. Then got here the wave: Blue Devils cash poured in, flipping Duke all the way in which to a 1.5-point favourite earlier than resistance confirmed and the road settled again with them as a slight underdog.
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So why would bettors again Duke contemporary off a 45-19 loss? EPA per play is the reply. Despite the scoreboard, Duke really graded out higher in estimated factors per try, suggesting the Blue Devils had been way more aggressive than the ultimate margin confirmed. If that sport had been simulated a number of instances, superior metrics recommend Duke would come out on high as a rule.
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For sharp bettors, that meant the opener was inflated by the optics of a lopsided field rating, giving them an opportunity to “buy low” on the Blue Devils earlier than the market corrected.
Bet: Duke-Tulane Under 54
Final ideas
Week 3 is shaping up as the primary true “injury week” of the season, and the betting market has responded accordingly. For handicappers, the sting lies in balancing these changes with historic comps that the general public market usually overlooks. Whether Simmons limps out for Ole Miss or Mateer continues his Heisman surge, the worth comes from recognizing the place the quantity merely doesn’t line up with actuality.