The Mariners took one other two steps backwards over the weekend after such a promising begin to their week final week. The 12-run outburst on Friday was superb to see however to comply with that up by scoring two runs whole over the ultimate two video games in Chicago was a enormous let down. It seems like I write this similar bit each week, however the uninspired play throughout your complete American League means Seattle isn’t actually in an excessive amount of bother regardless of its struggles. The M’s are nonetheless the favourite to win the division and at the moment have the third highest playoff odds within the AL. The final time the Mariners confronted the Astros, the vibes have been in the bathroom following a three-game sweep at the fingers of the Rangers. Seattle responded by sweeping Houston in 4 video games. The group is in want of a few of that schadenfreude this week.

Game

Time

Mariners Starter

Astros Starter

Mariners Win%

Astros Win%

Game 1

Monday, May 11 | 5:10 pm

RHP George Kirby

RHP Peter Lambert

56.4%

43.6%

Game 2

Tuesday, May 12 | 5:10 pm

RHP Bryan Woo

RHP Tatsuya Imai

52.9%

47.1%

Game 3

Wednesday, May 13 | 5:10 pm

RHP Bryce Miller

RHP Lance McCullers Jr.

47.6%

52.4%

Game 4

Thursday, May 14 | 11:10 am

RHP Luis Castillo

RHP Mike Burrows

49.2%

50.8%

Overview

Astros

Mariners

Edge

Batting (wRC+)

113 (2nd in AL)

104 (third in AL)

Astros

Fielding (FRV)

-2 (seventh)

-13 (fifteenth)

Astros

Starting Pitching (FIP-)

107 (thirteenth)

97 (seventh)

Mariners

Bullpen (FIP-)

136 (fifteenth)

91 (third)

Mariners

Nothing has gone proper for the Astros this yr. They’ve been decimated by accidents and have limped alongside at the underside of the AL West standings for practically your complete season. Carlos Correa was the most recent star to succumb to a important harm; he injured his ankle final week and can be out for the season. He joins 14 different gamers on the IL, probably the most of any group within the majors. While the lineup hasn’t actually been affected by all these absences but, the pitching employees has been one of many worst in baseball. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader are all working by way of important accidents and 6 different pitchers have been sidelined with minor maladies.

Player

Position

Bats

PA

Okay%

BB%

ISO

wRC+

Jose Altuve

2B

R

163

19.0%

10.4%

0.132

99

Yordan Alvarez

DH

L

180

14.4%

13.3%

0.325

188

Isaac Paredes

3B

R

148

16.2%

9.5%

0.124

111

Christian Walker

1B

R

167

18.0%

9.0%

0.242

143

Cam Smith

RF

R

158

27.8%

10.1%

0.131

83

Zach Cole (MiLB)

LF

L

37

27.0%

18.9%

0.310

138

Brice Matthews

CF

R

95

33.7%

8.4%

0.212

93

Braden Shewmake

SS

L

21

14.3%

0.0%

0.450

218

Christian Vázquez

C

R

74

18.9%

8.1%

0.194

130

The lone brilliant spot for the Astros has been their offense. They’ve scored the second most runs within the AL and it doesn’t seem to be a fluke. Yordan Alvarez has been among the best hitters in baseball to this point, operating a career-high 188 wRC+. Christian Walker has additionally bounced again after a tough first season in Houston final yr; he’s blasted 9 dwelling runs this yr and is sporting a 143 wRC+. Even although the harm bug has hit the lineup exhausting, Houston has discovered sufficient depth to cowl for its absences. Isaac Paredes has regarded strong overlaying third base whereas Correa was overlaying shortstop for the injured Jeremy Peña and Brice Matthews and Zach Cole have been strong within the outfield whereas Jake Meyers and Joey Loperfido have been sidelined.

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Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

Pitcher

IP

Okay%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Peter Lambert

22.1

24.7%

11.8%

0.0%

44.6%

2.42

2.82

George Kirby

52

19.1%

5.9%

8.3%

57.6%

2.94

3.44

Pitch

Usage vRHB

Usage vLHB

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

42.2%

32.9%

94.7

95

118

48

0.381

Sinker

18.1%

0.0%

94.2

89

Cutter

8.6%

16.7%

92.3

88

Changeup

7.8%

36.0%

88.6

80

Slider

23.3%

14.4%

86.4

101

Slurve

16.4%

10.8%

81.8

100

After struggling to make a lot of an affect with the Rockies to start out his profession, Peter Lambert signed a one-year take care of the Yakult Swallows of NPB final yr. He didn’t precisely excel, however he confirmed sufficient promise exterior the oppressive surroundings in Colorado to earn a minor league take care of the Astros this offseason. He’s been pressed into service because of all of the accidents Houston has handled and he’s regarded fairly strong throughout 4 begins this yr. He developed a straight cutter in Japan and that pitch has been a strong addition to his repertoire. He’s additionally acquired a superb changeup to spherical out his deep arsenal.

Pitcher

IP

Okay%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Tatsuya Imai (2025-NPB)

163.2

27.8%

7.0%

4.6%

48.3%

1.92

2.01

Bryan Woo

47

20.3%

4.3%

8.2%

30.9%

4.02

3.81

From a earlier collection preview:

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The Astros emerged because the stunning suitors for Tatsuya Imai this offseason, signing him to a three-year deal effectively under what many have been anticipating. Perhaps his contract fell brief as a result of it’s actually exhausting to determine his arsenal. There have been loads of questions on how his fastball would play towards MLB batters and pitch fashions had a horrible time making an attempt to determine his slider. That breaking ball is exclusive to say the least. The pitch has the least quantity of horizontal motion of any slider thrown within the majors, and relying on how he locates it, it might probably appear like a screwball at occasions. The heater has regarded actually good too, benefitting from a low arm slot and a lot of chopping motion. Imai will even pepper in a splitter, changeup, and curveball to spherical out his pitch combine, however the fastball and slider are the 2 main weapons.

Imai couldn’t work out of the primary inning in his final begin towards the Mariners, strolling 4 and permitting a single hit in simply 0.1 innings of labor. He was positioned on the IL with basic fatigue after that begin in Seattle and can be activated from that listing to make a begin on Tuesday.

Pitcher

IP

Okay%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Lance McCullers Jr.

34

25.0%

13.5%

16.1%

42.7%

7.41

4.81

Bryce Miller (2025)

90.1

18.9%

8.7%

15.5%

37.9%

5.68

5.17

Pitch

Usage vRHB

Usage vLHB

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

3.3%

6.5%

91.9

Sinker

57.1%

13.5%

91.4

91

100

177

0.349

Cutter

13.7%

40.6%

89.1

94

87

106

0.368

Changeup

16.5%

14.5%

85.5

83

Curveball

9.3%

24.9%

81.6

106

151

66

0.323

Sweeper

35.7%

10.5%

82.3

117

92

76

0.310

From a earlier collection preview:

Lance McCullers Jr. lastly acquired again on the massive league mound final season after lacking greater than two years following elbow surgical procedure again in 2023. It wasn’t a straightforward return to his earlier kind. He struggled along with his command all through the season and his velocity was down two ticks throughout the board from the place he was sitting method again in ‘22. His pitch mix looked a lot different too, with his sweeper taking the place of his trademark curveball as his preferred breaking ball. Command is usually the last skill to return after major elbow surgery and he’s now three years faraway from that process. I’m undecided we’ll ever see peak McCullers once more, however he’s acquired the deep repertoire and expertise to be a strong starter so long as his well being holds up.

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The Mariners scored six runs off McCullers in that collection in Seattle; he pitched 4.1 innings permitting 5 hits and two walks.

Pitcher

IP

Okay%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Mike Burrows

44.2

21.6%

7.2%

14.3%

37.8%

5.04

4.65

Luis Castillo

38.1

20.8%

7.3%

12.0%

34.1%

6.57

4.56

Pitch

Usage vRHB

Usage vLHB

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

21.6%

33.9%

95.0

100

51

88

0.403

Sinker

24.3%

5.4%

94.6

97

78

94

0.380

Changeup

16.4%

34.2%

87.1

86

118

140

0.250

Curveball

16.4%

14.0%

79.7

97

119

66

0.271

Slider

21.3%

12.5%

89.8

95

88

80

0.250

From a earlier collection preview:

The Astros acquired Mike Burrows in a three-team commerce involving the Rays and Pirates this offseason. He was surprisingly strong for Pittsburgh in his first full season within the large leagues, whilst he was overshadowed by among the larger title pitching prospects that have been arising by way of their system. Those similar prospects gave the Pirates a surplus to deal from and Burrows ended up in Houston. He throws comparatively exhausting and has a plus changeup to maintain batters from sitting on his heater. That offspeed pitch is his go-to swing and miss pitch too, although he has a pair of above common breaking balls as effectively. Because the Pirates deal with their pitching prospects so fastidiously, most of Burrows’s work got here in four- or five-inning stints. He’ll have to show he can work by way of an opposing lineup a third time to actually take a step ahead in his improvement.

Burrows is coming off his finest begin of the season, a scoreless seven-inning gem towards the Reds. In his earlier begin towards the Mariners, he allowed six runs on 11 hits and a stroll in six innings of labor.

The Big Picture:

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Run Diff

Recent Form

Athletics

21-19

0.525

-6

L-W-W-W-L

Rangers

19-21

0.475

2.0

-3

W-L-L-W-W

Mariners

19-22

0.463

2.5

+2

L-W-W-L-L

Angels

16-25

0.390

5.5

-24

W-W-L-L-W

Astros

16-25

0.390

5.5

-34

W-L-W-L-L

The Athletics maintained their grip on the highest of the AL West standings, profitable their weekend collection towards the Orioles. They return dwelling this week to tackle the Cardinals. The Rangers managed to quiet the purple scorching Cubs over the weekend, holding them scoreless throughout each video games on Saturday and Sunday. Texas hosts the Diamondbacks to start out this week.



Sources