With hundreds of US floor troops reportedly on the means to the Middle East, hypothesis is mounting that they could be assigned to take Iran’s Kharg Island, a key gas hub in the northern Persian Gulf which handles 90% of Tehran’s oil exports.
But Kharg is only one of dozens of Iranian islands in the gulf, and others could also be extra essential to securing the protected passage of ships – and naval vessels – by way of the Strait of Hormuz.
Seven of these islands – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Hengam, Qeshm, Larak and Hormuz – kind what researchers at Sun Yat-sen University in Zhuhai, China, name Iran’s “arch defense.”
“A hypothetical curve connecting these islands would further help to understand Iran’s strategic superiority in controlling the security” of the Hormuz strait, Iranian researcher Enayatollah Yazdani and Chinese researcher Ma Yanzhe wrote in a 2022 paper for the Canadian Center of Science and Education.
Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb – the smallest of the seven and at the western finish of the arch – are key to strait management, the two researchers wrote.
Because of the restricted distance between them and the depth of the water in the largely shallow gulf, “large warships and tankers are forced to walk past” the three islands, the researchers stated. That could make them straightforward targets for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fast-attack boats, mine layers, or drones working from these islands.
Iranian officers have referred to them and different gulf islands as Tehran’s “stationary and unsinkable aircraft carriers,” Yazdani and Ma wrote.
Last 12 months, the IRGC stated it was reinforcing its presence on Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, in accordance to a report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“Our tactical approach dictates that we must arm and operationalize this group of islands. We have the capability to strike enemy bases, warships, and assets in the region,” IRGC navy commander Rear Adm. Alireza Tangsiri stated at the time. (Tangsiri has now been killed in an Israeli operation, Israel and US Central Command stated Thursday.)
Because the islands are unsinkable, Iranian army positions on them would have to be eradicated to guarantee the protected passage of US warships – doubtlessly these carrying US Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) – into the coronary heart of the Persian Gulf, if a touchdown have been to be tried on Kharg Island.
The islands are “strategically located to control any shipping” attempting to depart or enter the gulf, stated Hawaii-based analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
There is not any timeline for doable US amphibious assaults on any of Iran’s islands.
US President Donald Trump stated Thursday he was extending a deadline for initiating strikes on Iran’s vitality infrastructure for 10 days to April 6, to see if a deal could possibly be reached with Tehran to finish the preventing. An earlier deadline was set to expire Friday night, Eastern time.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio advised reporters “progress has been made” in the negotiations with Iran.
But no pause was introduced in the total army marketing campaign. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated Thursday the US would proceed “negotiating with bombs.”
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NCS has reported that components of two MEUs – with round 4,000 troops – are on their means to the Middle East. Additionally, some 1,000 troops of the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division have been alerted to deploy.
Schuster stated the full may of these items could also be wanted to take management of Iran’s key defensive islands. “I would use two MEUs to ensure overwhelming force,” he advised NCS.
Getting US troops on the islands would occur in a single of two methods – air or sea.
The US Navy ships carry touchdown craft, together with LCACs (Landing Craft Air Cushioned) that can slide up onto seashores to disembark troops and their tools. But getting them inside the gulf could possibly be an issue as their motherships would have to get previous doable Iranian defenses on islands earlier in the curve – Hormuz, Larak, Qeshm and Hengam – in addition to on the Iranian mainland.
NCS army analyst Cedric Leighton on Thursday stated Larak, at the japanese entrance to the strait, presents an issue for naval vessels attempting to get into the gulf.
With missiles or small assault craft launched from Larak, “(Iran) could cut off anything that’s going through the strait. This is a critical military target,” he advised NCS’s Erin Burnett.
The Navy ships additionally carry CV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor plane that can carry out vertical takeoffs and landings alongside with helicopters. But these plane are slow-moving and susceptible to air defenses that earlier airstrikes could have missed.
Troops from the 82nd Airborne may parachute onto the islands from higher-flying plane, however such an assault would come with much less tools than could be transported by sea.
All in all, assaults on the islands may take two days to two weeks to full, however yield essential outcomes, if profitable, Schuster stated.
“Take it, put a radar and some troops on it, you can monitor activity in the strait while denying Iran a staging area for drones and so forth,” Schuster stated, of Abu Musa.
A March 24 report from the Institute for the Study of War stated US and/or Israeli warplanes had begun attacking Iranian army infrastructure, together with plane hangars, ports and warehouses on Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb – the sort of assaults Schuster stated would come earlier than an amphibious invasion.
But taking the islands is only one half of the job. An occupational drive of about 1,800 to 2,000 troops can be required to guarantee the islands couldn’t be utilized by the Iranians once more, Schuster stated.
And that may depart the occupying US troops susceptible.
“Controlling any of these territories will also require U.S. forces to prevent drone, missile, and artillery attacks from the Iranian mainland, potentially embroiling the U.S. in a longer-term, unpopular engagement on Iranian territory, accompanied by escalating U.S. casualties,” stated a brand new report from the Soufan Center, a New York-based nonpartisan evaluation group.
Schuster known as drone and missile protection very important for any US troops on the three Iranian islands.
“If (Iran) has the drones and ballistic missiles available, it will pound any hostile force on those islands,” he stated.
A deep dive on Kharg Island following US strikes
But Schuster sees benefits in attempting to take the three islands in the decrease gulf fairly than Kharg, the oil heart, in the higher half.
“There is less risk of damaging a future Iranian government’s economy,” he stated.
Because most of Iran’s oil flows by way of Kharg, a battle that damages any of its oil infrastructure may set postwar restoration again years because it’s rebuilt.
Iranian assaults on Qatar’s liquified pure fuel amenities earlier this month prompted injury that may take up to 5 years to restore, QatarVitality officers stated.
But analysts stated US motion to take Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb may have post-war repercussions, too.
In 1971, Iran, then dominated by the US-supported Shah, took management of the islands as the United Arab Emirates gained independence from colonial Britain.
The UAE has since challenged Tehran’s actions as unlawful at the United Nations, and supplied to negotiate a settlement of the dispute.
Iran claims it has a historic and geographic proper to the islands. The UAE says it could take the dispute to the International Court of Justice, if the matter can’t be resolved.
The US and different nations have been supportive of the UAE in its declare, the UAE Embassy in Washington stated in a press release.
And that’s the place any US seizure of the islands turns into tough, Schuster stated, calling it a “political dilemma” for Washington with its UAE ally.
If the US returns the island to any new Iranian authorities, it dangers angering the UAE, stated Schuster. But he added that if the US returns them to the UAE, it may undermine any perceived legitimacy of the new Iranian regime.
Of course, that’s solely an issue if the US succeeds in retaining any seized islands at the finish of the battle. But Schuster stated it’s one thing that planners want to think about as a result of it’s the sort of dispute that may see preventing flare anew.
“This is why modern military planning is so complex,” he stated.
“Every option has a negative impact. There are no perfect plans or solutions. There is only a balance among costs, risks and impact, both intended and unintended.”