Virginia on Friday turned the newest state to escalate the nationwide redistricting battle forward of November’s midterm elections that can decide which celebration controls the US House throughout the ultimate two years of President Donald Trump’s time in workplace.
Democrats who management the state Senate moved ahead on a proposed constitutional modification on redistricting, setting up a referendum as quickly as April – comparable to California’s 2025 ballot initiative – on whether or not to enact a new US House map in time for the midterms.
(*4*)
Friday’s 21-18 vote within the state Senate creates one other high-profile and costly contest over redistricting, the newest salvo in a mid-decade redistricting struggle started final yr in Texas at Trump’s behest in an effort to acquire extra seats which can be favorable to Republicans.
So far, that struggle has yielded 9 extra GOP-friendly seats and 6 that favor Democrats. While Virginia Democrats haven’t but launched the map they need to enact, celebration leaders have talked about flipping as many as 4 Republican-held US House seats, a doubtlessly crucial margin.
A Democratic-aligned group, Virginians for Fair Elections, this week launched its public push to mobilize forward of a referendum that would happen as early as April. Meanwhile, Virginians for Fair Maps, a GOP group whose leaders embrace former US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, is vowing to struggle the redistricting effort and continues to be attempting to block motion by Virginia Democrats in courtroom.
Neither group has publicly launched fundraising objectives, however the coming confrontation mirrors final yr’s redistricting struggle in California that noticed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom elevate greater than $100 million for a redistricting poll measure. In the tip, Californians overwhelmingly backed a map promoted by Newsom that made 5 US House seats friendlier to Democrats.
Virginia, like California, should take the redistricting situation to voters as a result of their state constitutions give unbiased commissions, slightly than lawmakers, the facility to draw congressional maps.
Virginia represents the most important remaining redistricting prize for Democrats, however political figures within the state are nonetheless wrangling over how aggressively to goal Republicans of their map-drawing.
Democrats at the moment management six of the state’s 11 US House seats and entered 2026 emboldened by huge victories in final yr’s elections that noticed the celebration flip the governor’s workplace and develop its majority within the House of Delegates.
Some lawmakers favor a maximalist method. Virginia Senate Pro Tem Louise Lucas has spent months taunting Republicans with social media posts promising to draw the GOP out of all however one seat.
“I said in August of 2025 that the maps will be 10-1 and I’m sticking with that today,” the Democrat wrote lately on X. “Anyone in the Congressional delegation who wants a seat needs to campaign for it and not expect a safe seat.”
Virginia House Speaker Don Scott additionally has stated he’s open to a 10-1 map.
But some want a map that may cluster Republican voters into two districts, giving Democrats safer margins of victory in 9.
So far, efforts by Virginia Republicans to block Democrats’ actions in courtroom have been unsuccessful. Another courtroom listening to is set for subsequent week.
Michael Young, a veteran GOP strategist working with the Virginians for Fair Maps, stated Republicans deliberate to struggle Democrats “in any available venue if they continue to pursue this lawless power grab.”
In their early messaging on the Virginia referendum, Democratic teams are taking a cue from the profitable California marketing campaign and framing the trouble as a short-term measure, that can restore the facility over map-drawing to an unbiased redistricting fee in 2030.
“We wish we didn’t have to take this step,” Keren Charles Dongo, a longtime aide to Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine who’s main the marketing campaign, stated in a assertion. “But with Donald Trump pressuring MAGA-controlled legislatures to rig their maps, this temporary, emergency exception will keep Virginia’s elections fair until every state plays by the same rules — and make sure the people, not politicians, decide how Virginia’s voice is heard in Congress.”
In interviews, Democrats pointed to potential motion in Florida – the place Republicans may goal as many as 5 Democratic seats – as added incentive for Virginia voters to draw new traces. Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis lately referred to as a particular session on redistricting.
“Virginia voters are being given the opportunity to unstack the deck,” stated Kelly Hall, government director of the Fairness Project, which has backed progressive poll measures across the nation and is supporting the brand new Virginia marketing campaign.
She declined to say how a lot cash her group is committing to the Virginia redistricting push.
Virginia’s Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, who can be sworn into workplace Saturday, has had a extra muted response to the redistricting effort. At a current public look, she famous that she carried two of the Republican-held districts in her landslide victory final November and anticipated to flip these seats on this yr’s midterms, even with out new traces.
There are key variations between deep-blue California and Virginia, the place Democrats are flexing newfound political powers. Notably, Newsom – who’s term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential contender – emerged as the general public face of the redistricting marketing campaign, investing his personal political capital in his celebration’s efforts to flip the US House.
A Spanberger spokesperson didn’t reply to a NCS inquiry.
“I doubt that (Spanberger) wants to make her first opening months in office being at the center of this partisan fight over redistricting,” stated Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a e-newsletter revealed by University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
But Hall, whose group has backed dozens of profitable poll efforts since 2016, stated having a well-known political determine headline the marketing campaign, as Newsom did, is “an exception to the rule.”
“It’s certainly not necessary for the success of a ballot measure effort,” she stated.