Millions of Ugandans will Thursday solid their votes in a essential presidential rematch between a former pop star and their long-time authoritarian chief, who goals to extend his practically 40-year rule.
In their earlier encounter at the polls in 2021, President Yoweri Museveni, now 81, received by a landslide. Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician, completed a distant second.
Wine, whose actual identify is Robert Kyagulanyi, disputed the outcomes, claiming they had been rigged. The 44-year-old former pop singer, who claims he has been overwhelmed, tasered, and attacked with teargas whereas campaigning towards Museveni, is now not often seen in public with out a flak jacket and helmet.
Who are the fundamental contenders?
Museveni seized the prime job in 1986 – when Wine was simply three. He secured the presidency following an armed rebellion, and is now looking for a seventh consecutive time period in workplace. Observers and analysts count on he’s very more likely to obtain it.
He has constructed his marketing campaign round the motto “protecting the gains,” portraying a legacy of peace and stability throughout his 4 many years in energy, and promised to elevate Uganda – considered one of the world’s poorest nations – to a “high middle-income status” by means of funding in manufacturing and agriculture.
Museveni’s critics declare he has so-far held on to energy by sidelining opponents.
Wine has constructed his id on uncompromising opposition to what he describes as Museveni’s “dictatorship.” He is promising to construct “a new Uganda,” pledging to revive political freedoms, eradicate corruption and create jobs. His marketing campaign has mobilized hundreds of thousands of disenchanted younger Ugandans.
“It is important for us to challenge the authoritarian leader – again and again – until we eventually get our freedom,” Wine told NCS. “Because not challenging him means giving up.”
“We know that all (institutions of the state) are up against us – the military, the police… But it is clear that the people of Uganda are standing firm behind the positive change that I am leading.”
While the election is seen as primarily a contest between Museveni and Wine, there are six different candidates, together with outstanding lawyer Nandala Mafabi.
Mafabi, 59, attracted massive crowds in elements of Uganda, the place he promised to handle the nation’s assets prudently and campaigned with the slogan, “Fixing the economy; money in our pockets.”
Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement social gathering has altered Ugandan laws to assist him preserve energy, together with the elimination of age and time period limits for the presidency. After securing a fifth time period in 2016, he advised the BBC that “we don’t believe in (presidential) term limits.” He has confronted repeated criticism for suppressing opposition rallies and cracking down on anti-government protests.
On Tuesday, simply two days earlier than the vote, Ugandan authorities applied a nationwide web blackout and restricted cellular companies, just like actions taken throughout the earlier election.
In the lead-up to the 2021 election, violent clashes resulted in dozens of deaths. The European Union Council of Ministers highlighted widespread points with the electoral course of at the time, noting web blackouts, harassment of opposition leaders, and media suppression, together with raids on observer workplaces.
In the run-up to Thursday’s vote, chaotic scenes resurfaced, with NCS witnessing safety forces utilizing violence towards Wine and his supporters at rallies. Wine has characterised the election as a “war,” citing the imprisonment of a whole lot of his primarily younger supporters.
The Ugandan police deny any intention to focus on Wine or his supporters. However, final week, authorities imposed restrictions on stay broadcasts of riots and “unlawful processions.” Museveni inspired safety forces to make use of tear gasoline as an alternative of stay ammunition to disperse what he labeled as “the criminal opposition.”
The UN Human Rights Office raised issues about “widespread repression and intimidation against the political opposition, human rights defenders, journalists.”
Presidential hopeful Mafabi advised NCS he had been “targeted by police” a number of instances. He recounted one such incident in Amudat, a city in northeastern Uganda, the place his automobile got here below gunfire. “Challenging Museveni comes with a lot of risks,” Mafabi stated.
NCS has contacted police authorities for remark.
About 21.6 million Ugandans are registered to vote, making up lower than half of the nation’s inhabitants of over 45 million, based on the electoral fee. Notably, practically half of Uganda’s inhabitants is below the age of 18, the voting age.
Recent polls point out that corruption and unemployment stay voters’ prime issues. Uganda is grappling with important authorities corruption, with roughly Sh. 10 trillion ($2.7 billion) in public funds misappropriated yearly, based on the Inspectorate of Government, the nation’s anti-corruption company.
Additionally, knowledge launched by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics in September revealed that almost half of the nation’s youth inhabitants, aged 18 to 30, is unemployed, uneducated, or missing coaching. This age group makes up over 23% of Uganda’s complete inhabitants.
Analysts consider that many potential voters are craving for new management. “Clearly, everybody wants to see a different government,” acknowledged Yusuf Serunkuma, a columnist for the Ugandan Observer newspaper and a researcher at Makerere University in Kampala, the nation’s capital.
While the need for change is widespread, “the government has a firm hold on any space where change might come from,” he added.
“There’s zero chance,” Serunkuma stated of Wine’s possibilities of gaining the presidency. He advised NCS that Uganda’s opposition is hampered by ineffective organizational constructions.
“The government has put in place measures to make sure that the incumbent is declared winner,” he claimed, alluding to the alleged affect the authorities has over the electoral fee.
Simon Mulongo, a former lawmaker and ex-African Union envoy, echoed Serunkuma’s prediction about the election outcomes.
“Bobi Wine has emerged as a powerful symbol of generational aspiration. However, winning national power requires more than symbolism,” he defined. “It demands deep organizational structures, nationwide coordination, and the capacity to secure and protect votes across rural and urban areas.”
Wine got here to prominence in the early 2000s for his vibrant dancehall music, which regularly addressed social injustices. His rise to international recognition got here in the 2010s when his music “Kiwani” featured in the soundtrack of the Disney film Queen of Katwe (2016).
Despite his reputation, Wine has confronted backlash for a few of his previous lyrics, together with homophobic messages advocating for the “banning and killing of all homosexuals.”
It led to a 10-year ban on his entry into the United Kingdom, which was lifted in 2023.
Following a journey to the UK two years in the past, Wine publicly renounced his earlier beliefs, telling supporters that “people grow and transform”.
In 2023, Ugandan lawmakers enacted a few of the strictest anti-gay laws in the world, which embody the loss of life penalty for “aggravated homosexuality,” and as much as 20 years in jail for people figuring out as LGBTQ+. NCS couldn’t affirm whether or not Wine was in assist of the laws.
Serunkuma expressed uncertainty about the potential for unrest throughout and after the election, describing the state of affairs as “unpredictable.”
“There’s so much anger and anxiety. You can’t be 100% sure where the spark would come from,” he stated. “It’s a nervous moment for everybody; it’s a nervous election.”
However, Mulongo doesn’t foresee chaos on polling day.
“Historically, voting itself has been relatively orderly, with most tensions arising either during the campaign period or after results are announced,” he defined. “The days following the announcement of results will be as important as election day itself.”
Under Museveni’s management, Uganda has emerged as an vital ally of Western nations, offering troops for regional army operations. The nation at present shelters practically 2 million refugees, the most in Africa.
Museveni has maintained a favorable relationship with the United States, just lately agreeing to simply accept migrants rejected by the US. He has additionally facilitated the entry of French and Chinese firms to start oil drilling in Uganda, with manufacturing set to begin later this 12 months.
Wine has acknowledged that he intends to overview the oil contracts if he’s profitable in the elections, telling Reuters that “any part in those agreements that does not favor Ugandans will definitely be revised.”
He has been essential of Uganda’s overseas companions for persevering with to assist Museveni regardless of his human rights report.
According to Serunkuma, this courting of the West could also be a technique for Museveni to tighten his grip on energy as he seeks a seventh time period in workplace.
“In 40 years, Museveni has succeeded tremendously in sustaining Western capital. That is his genius (and) that has given him a longer hold on to power,” he stated.