The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys and put to Ukraine this week got here with a deadline and an implicit risk: Sign up or face the danger of being deserted.
US President Donald Trump stated Friday that Ukrainian chief Volodymyr Zelensky would “have to like” the US plan, suggesting he’s in no temper to negotiate, and saying he has till Thursday to settle for.
Zelensky acknowledged the stark alternative in a somber speech to the nation on Friday, casting the plan as a alternative between dropping the United States as an ally and giving in to Russian calls for, which lots of the 28 factors cater to.
If Kyiv have been to lose US assist, the results can be grave for its weapons provides and entry to intelligence, compounding present crises: an absence of troopers, a monetary crunch and a deepening insecurity amongst Ukrainians in a presidency tainted by scandal.
Above all, rejecting the proposal would herald an existential separation from the US, with huge strategic implications for Ukraine and its European backers. It would threat the US turning its again on the battle altogether, reneging on pledges of a safety assure for Ukraine and telling not simply Zelensky however the Europeans: You’re on your own.
Not getting US weapons would harm Ukraine, however not as a lot as it might have executed three years in the past. That’s partly as a result of the battle has modified a lot: Tanks, anti-tank weapons and armored automobiles now play a subordinate position to the ever-present drones.
And it’s partly as a result of the weapons pipeline from Europe is now larger than that from the US. From the beginning of the conflict by way of June 2025, Europe has allotted at least $40 billion in army support, $5 billion greater than the US.
The lack of US weaponry would most of all have an effect on Ukrainian air defenses, which embody Patriot batteries and missiles. Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded for extra air defenses from the US, however the Patriots are in brief provide. Even if the US minimize off its own provide of missiles and spare components, it would possibly enable European and different allies to proceed serving to.
Ukraine has additionally had a restricted provide of extremely efficient US ATACM missiles.
The Trump administration has proven higher willingness to promote US weapons to a European-financed fund often called the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) price some $90 billion. But it might punish Ukraine by abandoning this system – if Kyiv rejects the plan.
On the upside, Ukraine has constructed a formidable drone and missile trade, even when it wants scaling-up. Ukrainian officers have stated that 90% of the drones it makes use of are made in Ukraine.
The US briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine again in March, after the notorious Oval Office encounter between Trump and Zelensky.
The precise nature of that cooperation has by no means been publicly divulged however possible contains early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time evaluation of Russian troop actions, essential at a time when Russian forces are making advances on a number of components of the frontlines.
In October, Zelensky acknowledged that every one of Ukraine’s defenses towards Russian missiles – Patriot, NASAMS and the IRIS-T – would have restricted information with out US intelligence, which means there wouldn’t be sufficient info to guarantee protection.
US intelligence has additionally been utilized by Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, together with towards army and power infrastructure, Ukrainian sources have instructed NCS.
The Europeans are bettering their entry to such intelligence, nevertheless it takes years to construct and coordinate such capabilities.
Men and cash
Ukraine’s biggest issues are extra do-it-yourself and couldn’t be mounted by any variety of US tanks or missiles. Its army has a manpower disaster. Tens of hundreds of troopers went AWOL within the first seven months of this yr alone.
Many infantry items are severely under-staffed, however lowering the draft age from 25 is seen as a political landmine.
Should Kyiv reject the blueprint, US backing for its solvency could also be one other casualty. The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine wants $65 billion in funds assist over the following yr alone. The European Union has been struggling to agree to a manner to use frozen Russian belongings as some kind of mortgage assure.
The 28-point plan – the work of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian official Kirill Dmitriev – threatens to blow up the fragile negotiations on utilizing these belongings.
“$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture.”
“Frozen European-held Russian funds will be unfrozen,” the plan insists – even when these funds are past US management and Europe isn’t occasion to the plan.
The US-Russian plan (level 5) says that “Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees,” however no element is obtainable.
Language akin to: “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries” (level 3) is not going to encourage confidence in Kyiv.
Some reports recommend that in accordance to an annex to the plan “a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice line into Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.”
NCS has been unable to affirm such a clause.
Without exact and detailed ensures, endorsed by the US Congress so that they have the power of regulation and backed by the specter of sanctions, it’s laborious to see why Zelensky would accede to the naked define within the plan.
But rejection would convey existential threat.
Long earlier than Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dream was to break up Europe from the US. A favourite theme of the Kremlin since Trump took workplace has been to distinction Trump’s efforts to settle the battle with the “war-mongers” in Europe.
The 28-point plan nods to this US administration’s semi-detached view of NATO, the cornerstone of peace in Europe for 80 years.
It says “a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States,” exchanging the position of ally for one in every of arbitrator.
European leaders, together with Japan and Canada, got here as shut as they may to a well mannered rejection of the plan in a statement on Saturday, saying it “requires additional work.”
They added they have been “concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces,” which would go away Ukraine weak to assault.
Some Europeans assume this is a cathartic second.
“We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is,” former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated on X Saturday.
Just one month in the past, Zelensky stated that in a telephone name with Trump, he had “discussed opportunities to bolster our air defense, as well as concrete agreements that we are working on to ensure this. There are good options and solid ideas on how to truly strengthen us.”
Those good choices have evaporated.
The potential lack of weapons methods and intelligence – and their fast influence on a battlefield that’s steadily tilting Moscow’s manner in addition to Ukraine’s power provides – very a lot matter.
But they pale by comparability to the prospect that Washington is prepared to reward Putin’s aggression, shrug at his seizure of European territory and detach itself from essentially the most profitable alliance for peace within the fashionable period.
“There is a long tradition of great powers in Europe making deals over the heads of smaller countries, leading to terrible suffering,” writes Anne Applebaum within the Atlantic.
“The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with its secret protocols, brought us World War II. The Yalta agreement gave us the Cold War. The Witkoff-Dmitriev pact, if it holds, will fit right into that tradition,” she says.