Brett McGurk is a NCS world affairs analyst who served in senior nationwide safety positions beneath Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
After six weeks of war, the United States and Iran are actually planning essentially the most senior assembly between the 2 international locations for the reason that Islamic Republic of Iran was based in 1979. Led by Vice President JD Vance on the US aspect and Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf on the Iranian aspect, the talks mark a mind-boggling flip of occasions now two months into this disaster.
The solely precedent for cabinet-level engagement between Washington and Tehran was the negotiations in President Barack Obama’s second time period, when Secretary of State John Kerry met regularly with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Those talks lasted nicely over a 12 months. Before and after every spherical at their degree, groups of consultants on each side spent weeks and months in Switzerland or Vienna hammering out the main points of a nuclear pact.
The lead as much as these talks has been totally different. There seems to have been little diplomatic legwork in preparation. The agenda just isn’t fully clear.
President Donald Trump introduced a two-week ceasefire to set the body for the talks — however since then, the ceasefire has confirmed fragile at finest and Trump’s precondition of a “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has not been met.
Iran claims the ceasefire should embody Lebanon, the place it helps Hezbollah. Vance has mentioned that’s a misunderstanding.
As a former diplomat who has negotiated with Iran — typically succeeding and different occasions failing — I’m extraordinarily cautious of such a high-level assembly absent some signal that the 2 sides are narrowing variations. There is not any signal of that in any respect.
Iran will strategy these conferences pretending it’s the facility on the desk. That’s what they do. But the boastfulness conceals a rustic that has simply been hammered militarily, is in shambles economically and that doesn’t have the assist of its personal individuals.
Brett McGurk on the Iran ceasefire: ‘fragile is an understatement’
So what can we count on? In phrases of outcomes, not a lot. Talks with Iran, in the very best case situation, are time consuming and complicated. There can be no breakthroughs in Islamabad. In phrases of symbolism and positioning nevertheless, the stakes are excessive. That’s the place I’m centered.
Let’s think about the draw back potential for these talks, adopted by the upside potential.
From the US vantage level, Iran’s army industrial base has been massively degraded, with its potential to produce missiles and drones set again years along with its nuclear program. Iran’s management losses could degrade inner cohesion and cut back its potential to successfully mission energy exterior its borders, together with by way of proxies and terrorist teams — because it’s accomplished for years.
From Iran’s vantage level, its losses are survivable, and it has retained strategic benefit in its favor by way of management — for the primary time — of the Strait of Hormuz. This has all the time been a presumed card in Iran’s pocket, and in taking part in it, they’ve confirmed they’ll maintain the worldwide economic system hostage. As a deterrent, that may be even larger than the nuclear weapon Iran has, prior to now, pursued.
For the vp to satisfy publicly with Iran’s new management as Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz carries important danger. For Iran, the assembly itself is the purpose — and the United States can have legitimized its new strategic place.
The motive no assembly like this has ever occurred just isn’t as a result of the US refused to satisfy. Obama and even Trump in his first time period have been ready to satisfy with Iran’s president. But Iran has rejected any such face-to-face engagement. The Iranian system has portrayed itself as standing aside and above the “Great Satan” without having for such direct diplomacy, because it has pursued an agenda with violence to in the end eject the US from the Middle East altogether.
The assembly with Vance, so quickly after new leaders got here to energy, would smash a precedent that Iran has imposed for the reason that earliest days of its Islamic Revolution. The benefit on this new equation — if the US holds agency in its negotiating positions — could disfavor Iran. The mannequin right here could be Ronald Reagan assembly with the president of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev. Reagan held agency in his calls for and in the end tipped dominos that led to the tip of the USSR.
The Iranian individuals — hundreds of whom have been massacred earlier this 12 months for demanding a change to Iran’s authorities — may be dismayed by the imagery of Vance assembly with Ghalibaf, a consummate hardliner and former police chief. That’s comprehensible. It makes me uneasy, as nicely. But there’s an opportunity that by breaking Iran’s taboo, the US will increase inner fissures throughout the new management’s construction.
After all, Trump this 12 months shattered a second taboo that has lengthy outlined US relations with Iran: Using army drive contained in the borders of Iran itself. Iran’s leaders had lengthy thought the US was deterred from such strikes, due partly to its threats to Hormuz. They now know, Trump was not.
Presuming these conferences happen over the approaching days, the very best strategy for Vance is the Reagan mannequin. That means extending an open hand however making clear that until US calls for are met — significantly on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear enrichment and stockpiles — that Iran will proceed to face excessive financial strain by way of sanctions and a risk of US army drive.
Iran will goal to make use of the one card it now has: the Strait of Hormuz. But it might overreach as US army forces stay positioned close by and on the prepared if diplomacy fails. Trump simply yesterday mentioned Iran’s ongoing management of the Strait “is not the agreement we have!”
In this historic assembly, the vp can have a stronger hand — and he ought to use it.