President Donald Trump is getting into his State of the Union tackle in weaker political form than any U.S. president this century, in response to NCS’s chief information analyst.
Newsweek contacted the White House through e mail for remark outdoors of standard enterprise hours.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle advised Newsweek in an emailed assertion final week: “The final poll was November 5, 2024, when practically 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common sense agenda.”
Why It Matters
Presidents typically use the State of the Union to reset their standing, however historical past suggests Trump is doing so from an unusually fragile position.
With midterms looming, sustained weakness dangers compounding electoral problems for his party.
What To Know
NCS polling knowledgeable Harry Enten mentioned the numbers heading into Trump’s State of the Union are traditionally unhealthy—by fashionable presidential requirements and by Trump’s own record.
Speaking on NCS, Enten described Trump’s present internet approval rating as “minus 27 points” in polling conducted ahead of the address.
That was in response to a NCS/SSRS ballot performed from February 17 to February 20, 2026, with a big pattern of two,496 respondents and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 share factors, which discovered Trump’s total approval had fallen to 36 p.c, with 63 p.c disapproving, leaving him 27 factors underwater.
In sensible phrases, it means way more Americans disapprove of Trump’s job efficiency than approve, by a margin that dwarfs comparable moments for current presidents.
Looking again at Trump’s first time period, his standing forward of earlier State of the Union speeches by no means approached at this time’s stage of weak spot. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, Trump entered the tackle roughly 10 to fifteen factors underwater.
Those had been difficult numbers, however they’re considerably higher than the place he stands now.
Comparison with different fashionable presidents underscores the purpose much more clearly. At the same stage of their second phrases, Barack Obama was about 15 factors underwater going into the State of the Union. George W. Bush fared higher nonetheless, sitting round minus 11.
Trump’s minus 27 ranking locations him nicely beneath each, setting a low-water mark for any president this century at this second of their presidency.
As Enten put it, this isn’t a marginal distinction or a matter of interpretation. A niche of 27 factors is dramatically bigger than gaps within the low teenagers, and it displays a deeper stage of dissatisfaction throughout the citizens.
Independents are a significant driver of that decline.
According to Enten, Trump’s internet approval amongst independents now stands at minus 47 factors, the weakest exhibiting he has recorded with that group in both of his two phrases.
A yr earlier, independents rated him at minus 13, which means the shift has been each speedy and extreme.
That erosion issues as a result of independents typically determine shut races.
When a president is that far underwater with voters who usually are not aligned with both occasion, sustaining constructive total approval turns into practically unattainable.
Enten argued this dynamic explains why Trump’s total numbers have sunk to report lows forward of the tackle.
Taken collectively, the info paint an image of a president going through a State of the Union second from a traditionally deprived place—one formed by comparisons not simply to his previous, however to each different fashionable occupant of the Oval Office.
What People Are Saying
Enten mentioned: “You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that minus 27 points is considerably lower than minus 15 or minus 11. So Trump isn’t just weaker than he’s ever been going into a State of the Union address, he is weaker than any other president this century going into a State of the Union address at this point in their second term.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle advised Newsweek in an emailed assertion: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common sense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”
Speaking at a White House occasion on Monday, Trump mentioned: “It just amazes me that there’s not more support out there.
“We actually have silent support. I think it’s silent. I think that’s how I won.”
What Happens Next
Attention will now flip as to whether Trump’s State of the Union message shifts public opinion—or whether or not upcoming financial information, legislative fights, and marketing campaign dynamics deepen the patterns highlighted in current polling.