Trump voter regret is clearly registering now

As President Donald Trump’s ballot numbers have hit new lows amid the Iran warfare, there’s now the firmest proof but of a long-anticipated dynamic: the regretful Trump voter.

While a good variety of Trump voters have had reservations for some time, a sequence of polls in latest weeks exhibits these reservations are beginning to tip over into one thing extra critical.

A YouGov ballot from the University of Massachusetts Amherst — a survey we’ve spotlighted before on this concern — is the toughest proof.

Rather than ask a straight query about whether or not folks regret their votes, the ballot affords a sliding scale of more-nuanced choices, together with “some concerns,” “mixed feelings” and “some regrets,” moderately than simply full-on regret.

In April 2025, 74% of Trump voters scorned any of these choices and stated they had been “very confident” of their vote. But right this moment, that quantity has declined to 62%.

The 38% of Trump voters who selected a less-resolute possibility was double the 19% of Kamala Harris voters who did the identical.

Another 21% of Trump voters stated they had been nonetheless “confident” of their votes however had “some concerns.”

And the share who declined to precise confidence of their vote — and stated they a minimum of had “mixed feelings” — has gone from 8% in April 2025 to 17% right this moment.

Just 5% stated they regret their vote and would vote in a different way if they might. But that seems to really undersell the extent of regret.

When given an opportunity to recast their 2024 votes, in reality, simply 84% of Trump voters stated they might vote for him once more — in comparison with 91% for Harris voters.

So whereas some would possibly want to not name it “regret,” 16% would apparently do issues in a different way with hindsight.

A Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll from across the similar time fills out the regretful image.

It discovered 13% of Trump voters stated they both “strongly” (5%) or “somewhat” (8%) regret their vote — double the quantity for Harris voters.

Regret was notably excessive amongst Trump voters beneath 30 years previous (17%) and Hispanics (16%).

The proportion of Trump voters expressing regret is not solely double the share for Harris voters; it’s additionally double the 6-7% of Trump voters who stated the identical in polling final April and October from the Washington Post and Ipsos.

Just to underscore, these surveys recommend between 1 in 8 and 1 in 6 Trump voters categorical some measure of regret for his or her 2024 votes. Were these percentages to abandon the GOP within the 2026 midterm elections, it might virtually undoubtedly be a wave election for Democrats.

And this is hardly the one proof of Trump’s base softening on him. While there was loads of speak about how self-described MAGA supporters again the Iran warfare, it’s clear lots of voters in Trump’s base don’t.

And a NCS poll this week confirmed an actual softness on that concern and loads of others.

Here are the chances of 2024 Trump voters who disapproved of him in every of those areas:

Those are giant chunks of Trump’s voter base who disapprove of him on among the central problems with the day — and among the central points he campaigned on. At this level, whether or not these voters technically subscribe to the phrase “regret” is form of irrelevant.

And in case it wasn’t clear how a lot Trump’s base has soured on him, take into account this nugget from NCS’s ballot:

“Working-class White voters” has change into shorthand for the form of voter Trump has locked all the way down to nice political impact. And 63% approved of him in a February 2025 NCS ballot.

His approval score amongst them within the new NCS ballot? Just 49%.