President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after stepping off Air Force One on September 7, 2025 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.
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The United States government has already collected tens of billions of {dollars} from President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.”
But that cash — and much more — may find yourself being refunded if the Supreme Court agrees with decrease courts that most of the levies on imports from different nations are unlawful.
How a lot may that find yourself being?
Anywhere between $750 billion to a whopping $1 trillion, warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a declaration filed with the Supreme Court final week.
That eye-popping complete may embody the greater than $72 billion in tariff revenue collected thus far by U.S. Border and Customs enforcement since Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, in response to knowledge as of Aug. 24.
It would additionally embody cash projected to be collected from the at-risk tariffs by subsequent June.
“Unwinding them could cause significant disruption,” Bessent instructed the Supreme Court.
Bessent’s declaration was a part of a request by the Trump administration to have the Supreme Court rapidly rule the tariffs are authorized, and never wait till subsequent summer season, the conventional time-frame for such a call.
The sooner the court docket guidelines, the much less cash the federal government might be required to refund if a majority of justices discover the tariffs to be unlawful.
Refunding tariffs just isn’t an unprecedented state of affairs for the U.S. authorities. But the quantity of tariffs the Trump administration might be pressured to refund is.
Under former President Joe Biden, importers of some Chinese items had been granted refunds on Section 301 tariffs throughout a restricted interval, in response to a 2022 Holland & Knight alert. But these refunds had been comparatively paltry.
Bessent stated he’s “confident” that the Trump administration will get the Supreme Court to reverse the decrease court docket’s rulings.
But if the Supreme Court says that refunds are required, “we’d have to do it,” Bessent instructed NBC News‘ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. And that might be “terrible,” he added.
Two decrease courts have dominated Trump overstepped his presidential authority when he invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify imposing steep levies on nearly each U.S. buying and selling companion.
Last week, the Trump administration requested the Supreme Court to reverse these choices — rapidly.
“The stakes in this case could not be higher,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote within the administration’s petition to the excessive court docket. “To the President and his most senior advisors, these tariffs thus present a stark choice: With tariffs, we are a rich nation; without tariffs, we are a poor nation,” Sauer wrote.
“The President predicts that if “the United States had been pressured to pay again the trillions of {dollars} dedicated to us, America may go from power to failure the second such an incorrect choice took impact,’ and ‘the financial penalties can be ruinous, as a substitute of unprecedented success.’ “
The Supreme Court has not indicated when it might act on the Trump administration’s request to take the case.
But the fact that the Trump administration did not wait until mid-October to ask the high court to take the case “at the very least will increase the chances that we may see a call from the Supreme Court by the top of the 12 months,” said Ryan Majerus, a partner in the international trade team at King & Spalding.
Major questions remain over how a refund process would work for the administration and the companies hit hardest by the tariffs
Majerus said it is possible that importers could be required to file claims themselves to secure the refunds.
Cargo containers stacked aboard a ship at the Jakarta International Container Terminal in Tanjung Priok Port on Aug. 7, 2025.
Str | Afp | Getty Images
Trade experts are already urging companies to keep meticulous records and prepare to file refund claims, warning that the process could be messy.
“Documenting import histories and submitting vital paperwork promptly might be key,” a recent client alert from Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck said.
If brokers are required to file for their refunds, “the workload for our customs groups would double in a single day and be met with importers very desirous to get these {dollars} again,” Mike Short, president of worldwide forwarding at C.H. Robinson, recently told CNBC.
The New York Times’ DealBook newsletter reported that some importers are being approached about promoting their rights to potential refunds to third-party companies at pennies on the greenback.
Buyers of these rights are successfully betting that the Supreme Court will overturn Trump’s tariffs, and provides them a good-looking return on these wagers.
The White House didn’t instantly reply to CNBC’s request for remark.