Middle East Forum Director of Policy Michael Rubin spoke with CNBC concerning the attainable endgame of the U.S.–Iran confrontation. They mentioned whether or not the Trump administration is aiming for full regime change or a “Venezuela-style” transition, the names circulating as attainable successors inside Iran’s political institution, and why Rubin believes any post-Khamenei management drawn from the present system would nonetheless carry the identical ideological constraints.
CNBC: Get some perception from Michael Rubin. He’s not solely a senior fellow on the American Enterprise Institute, former Pentagon official, he really lived in Iran. So Michael, there’s no one higher to talk with than you proper now, thanks.
You know, I used to be speaking earlier and saying it’s like a fist struggle — you may discuss an endgame, however when you throw a punch, you don’t know the way it ends. Iran is a proud nation. We can beat them militarily, however what’s the final endgame? What does Iran need?
RUBIN: At this level, what Donald Trump needs is extra essential, and that more and more appears to be regime change. The query is whether or not will probably be full regime change or one thing extra like a Venezuela mannequin.
Increasingly, it seems like Donald Trump is leaning towards the latter. Venezuela’s present management isn’t any buddy of the United States, however individuals I speak to say Washington can nonetheless work with them. The query is whether or not Iran may produce somebody comparable.
CNBC: Is there any individual in Iran who suits that mould? They shouldn’t have to love us, however they’d be keen to work with us, notably round their nuclear program.
RUBIN: I feel it’s attainable the Iranians will compromise on their nuclear program. In 1988, when Ayatollah Khomeini accepted a ceasefire with Iraq, he likened it to consuming from a chalice of poison.
The late supreme chief may by no means make that compromise as a result of Iran misplaced greater than $2 trillion underneath his watch via sanctions and misplaced alternatives. He couldn’t inform the Revolutionary Guard that that is what their sacrifice was for after which give up it. But his successor may.
Three names are being mentioned — Hassan Rouhani, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Larijani — all figures tied in alternative ways to the present system. But that is the place I feel Donald Trump will get it unsuitable: he underestimates the ideology these males embrace and the way constantly they are going to attempt to protect it.
CNBC: Rouhani is 77. Is that basically if you need to begin working a nation? And what concerning the Iranian individuals? We have seen 1000’s reportedly killed by the regime. Is there an opportunity they step up and reclaim their nation, or does the theocracy nonetheless have too robust a grip?
RUBIN: What it’s good to perceive is that in 1979, Iranians united round what they opposed — the Shah. They had been promised Islamic democracy. They obtained neither. Instead, they obtained the Iran-Iraq War, a battle that killed 1,000,000 individuals.
That historical past has made Iranians deeply afraid of what comes after regime collapse and the sacrifice that will observe. The likelihood of civil warfare inside Iran could be very excessive.
That mentioned, they hate this regime. It has no legitimacy. The worst factor we may do now could be to grab defeat from the jaws of victory by signaling that Iran is perhaps dismantled — for instance, via a Kurdish mannequin. That could be the worst choice at this level.