The price increases attributable to President Donald Trump’s choice to go to conflict with Iran have made a lot of Americans unhappy with him. When he’s been requested in regards to the inflation or the unhappiness, Trump has repeatedly responded with lies — fictional tales about how low prices supposedly have been earlier than the conflict.
It’s not like individuals can’t bear in mind what they have been paying for issues lower than three months in the past. But the president has concocted a fantasy — of sub-$2 fuel, sub-2% inflation, and customarily lowered prices — that bears little resemblance to the precise state of the nation previous to the primary strikes in opposition to Iran on February 28.
Here’s a have a look at Trump’s feedback and the reality.
Trump told members of Congress at a White House picnic on Tuesday: “We had — inflation was at 1.6% for the last three months just prior to the war.” That “1.6%” determine was a little decrease than the determine he cited in comments to reporters final week: “If you go back to just before the war, for the last three months, inflation was at 1.7%.”
Neither quantity is correct.
The year-over-year increase within the Consumer Price Index was 2.7% in November 2025, 2.7% in December 2025 and 2.4% in January 2026. The inflation fee was 2.4% again in February 2026, for which practically all the information was collected earlier than the conflict started on the final day of the month.
The fee jumped to 3.3% in March 2026 and 3.8% in April 2026.
Trump has not restricted himself to claiming there was little or no inflation earlier than the conflict. Rather, he has additionally declared that prices had decreased earlier than the wartime spike in oil and fuel prices.
“We inherited high prices and we got the prices down, and we got them down to numbers that in some cases people have not seen before,” he said on the Tuesday picnic.
“Look, prices are down, but the energy caused it to go up,” he said in a Fox News interview final week. “You know, when they talk about high prices, I inherited the high prices. I’m getting them down; I’ve got them down incredibly,” he said in one other Fox News interview final week. “Outside of the gasoline, prices are way down. Prices have come down,” he told reporters in early May.
Trump might pretty say that some merchandise had declined in worth for the reason that starting of this presidency in January 2025; eggs, one merchandise he has repeatedly talked about, are a good example. But the president retains speaking as if general prices have been down earlier than the conflict — and even are down general at present — and that’s clearly not true.
Even earlier than the conflict, far more products had elevated in worth throughout this administration than had decreased in worth. Through February 2026, common prices have been up 2.9% general for the reason that starting of Trump’s second time period, Consumer Price Index figures present.
Through April 2026, the newest month with obtainable information, there had been a 4.8% general enhance in common prices since January 2025.
“You know, I had gasoline down to $1.85 in Iowa,” Trump told reporters Tuesday whereas speaking in regards to the pre-war financial system. “I was in Iowa, and the stations had it at $1.85. But I was down to, in many cases, less than $2.00 a barrel — a gallon.”
“We had numbers that nobody’s seen in a long time. So you had $2 a gallon,” he told reporters on May 7. “We were down — I think you were $1.85, $1.90 in Iowa, and a lot of other places.”
Nope.
The nationwide common for a gallon of normal fuel on February 28, the day the conflict started, was not near $2 a gallon; it was $2.98 per gallon, in keeping with information supplied by AAA. No state had an AAA common decrease than Oklahoma’s $2.47 per gallon that day. And whereas there might need been some stations someplace within the US promoting fuel for beneath $2, there have been, at most, extraordinarily few of them.
Four days earlier than the conflict, on February 24, NCS requested the price-tracking agency GasBuddy what number of stations nationwide have been promoting for beneath $2 per gallon that day (except for particular reductions). As of that night time, the reply was… 4 stations out of roughly 150,000 the agency was monitoring. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum evaluation, instructed NCS on Wednesday there would have been “the same or fewer stations” beneath $2 on February 28, as general prices have been trending upward on the time.
As for Iowa? Its common worth for normal fuel on each February 27 and February 28 was $2.64 per gallon, in keeping with AAA. On the day Trump visited the state in late January, the state common was $2.57 per gallon; GasBuddy discovered simply 4 stations within the state promoting that day for beneath $2 per gallon — $1.97, to be particular, not “$1.85” — out of two,036 stations the agency was monitoring there. And a NCS reporter noticed that the station proper exterior the venue the place Trump spoke was at $2.69 per gallon that day.
It’s attainable Trump was referring to the price of E85, an ethanol-gasoline mix that’s bought in a minority of gas stations and may solely be used within the small percentage of automobiles which are appropriate with it; the mix was promoting for round $1.85 per gallon in Iowa on the time of his go to. But that might be deceptive, since Trump merely spoke of “gasoline” and provided no indication he was speaking about a area of interest product.
The AAA national average for normal fuel was as much as $4.56 per gallon on Wednesday. Iowa’s average was $4.28 per gallon.