The authorities shutdown is unlikely to derail the inventory market’s momentum into year-end, in keeping with Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of analysis. Lee believes the suspension of financial information releases from federal businesses is a “sidebar issue,” including that previous shutdowns have had little lasting influence on equities. The extensively adopted strategist, who known as 2025’s bull run to all-time highs in shares, expects the S & P 500 to succeed in at the very least 7,000 by December with potential for additional positive factors. “We would not lean bearish because of shutdowns,” Lee wrote in a notice to shoppers Thursday. “If stocks are down, we would be dip buyers. This is something to be mindful of, as we may hear of dire warnings of calamity because of the shutdown.” The S & P 500 has surged nearly 40% since its April lows, returning to document highs and bringing 2025 positive factors to 14%. The fairness benchmark must climb about 4% to succeed in 7,000 from Wednesday’s shut of 6,711.20. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Many on Wall Street imagine the size of a authorities closure issues as a result of a longer-than-normal stoppage might weigh on an already fragile financial system and put strain on a inventory market close to document highs. Still, Lee pointed to seasonal power as the primary driver for equities from right here. He famous that since 1950 the S & P 500 has posted a median fourth-quarter achieve of 4.9% with an 81% win ratio. Lee additionally highlighted parallels to 1998 and 2024, when the Federal Reserve reduce rates of interest in September and the index rose a mean of 13.8% within the remaining three months of the 12 months. A repeat of that sample would indicate a transfer towards 7,750. “There is a strong seasonal tailwind underway and the upside is higher given the Fed is dovish,” he mentioned. Lee suggested in opposition to shifting defensive in response to the shutdown, although he mentioned gold and bitcoin stay engaging holdings.