The Republicans’ Plan to Win the Shutdown – NCS Political Briefing

‘On Wednesday morning, the U.S. Government shut down. Federal workers are furloughed, lots of them beneath menace of firing. And the off-ramp to this visitors jam? What off-ram?

We’re headed to a shutdown as a result of the Democrats will not do the proper factor.

Donald Trump is inflicting the shutdown. This is a Trump shutdown.

The Schumer shutdown that’s looming is a Democratic alternative. I do not understand how they get out of this.

Republicans management the House, the Senate, and the presidency. They have determined to shut the authorities down.

When Republican Congressman Mike Lawler defeated Sean Patrick Maloney, a Democrat, in 2022, it despatched a shockwave from New York to Washington. The upset helped safe Republicans a majority they nonetheless take pleasure in at this time. And he is right here to inform us how he plans to navigate the shutdown and assist Republicans hold management of the House subsequent fall. I’m David Chalian, NCS’s Political Director and Washington Bureau Chief. And that is the NCS Political Briefing. Congressman Lawler, thanks a lot for being right here.

Thanks for having me.

Now we’re on this authorities shutdown. Where are we by way of how lengthy you, in speaking to your colleagues, assume this will final or what a doable path out of this can be?

‘I feel it is going to final so long as Chuck Schumer permits it to final. I imply, that is the Schumer shutdown. He has reversed each earlier place he is ever held when it comes to authorities shutdowns and is now demanding issues in trade for conserving the authorities open and funded. I’ve been very constant and clear on this. Whether Republicans have finished it in the previous or Democrats are doing it now, it is incorrect. It’s incorrect to maintain the American individuals hostage. It’s to maintain to maintain financial system hostage. It’s incorrect to create this pointless chaos in our federal authorities, all since you did not win an election and you do not get your means 100% of the time. The reality is that there’s a clear CR sitting in the Senate that has already handed the House that three Democrats have already voted for in the senate. It simply takes 5 extra. And we will open up the authorities and keep away from this complete dialogue any additional in order that we will get about finalizing fiscal yr ’26 appropriations and addressing points like the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which I’ve already co-sponsored laws to lengthen by a yr. And I’m open to additional negotiation on that. But I feel this concept that you just’re simply going to shut the authorities down in perpetuity till you get your means is foolhardy. It has by no means labored. It would not work when Republicans do it, and it is actually not going to work when Democrats do it.

But if certainly, as the Democrats like to say, the Republicans are answerable for the House, the Senate, the presidency, given all the levers of energy in your facet of the aisle, is there some duty to interact in a negotiation to get the authorities again open on a few of these factors that the Democrats are in search of?

There have been 13 CRs beneath Joe Biden.

Which I ought to simply say for folk, that is a unbroken decision. These are stopgap funding payments that kind of hold spending at beforehand agreed upon ranges.

Right, there have been 13 of them beneath Joe Biden, and Republicans like me voted for them to hold them open. I voted for eight CRs beneath Joe biden to hold the authorities open and funded. This CR is predicated on spending ranges that have been agreed to beneath Joe Biden’s presidency. So this concept that there ought to have been a negotiation that Democrats did not get what they need in right here. These are spending ranges by a Democratic president. These are coverage riders by a Democratic president. And all that they’ve finished is shut down the authorities and admittedly give extra authority to the govt as a result of there isn’t any funding and there is not approval of packages or companies and departments. And so the govt has plenty of leeway right here. So from my vantage level, they’re very silly.

Tell me what you imply by that, extra authority to the govt.

Well, when you do not have funding, David, how are you supposed to really proceed appropriations? When you do not have authorities and approvals of those packages, legally, how do you really proceed them? So to me, this can be a very silly endeavor by the Democrats, particularly in the event that they really feel the govt department has taken an excessive amount of authority. They’ve really actually simply given OMB and the govt plenty of authority. So. To me, this can be a very silly factor that they’ve entered into they usually’re going to remorse it.

One of these potential authorities, talking of OMB, Russell Vought, the director, spoke about and it appeared in a few of President Trump’s language, he kind of agreed with this notion that there may very well be completely firing a few of the furloughed authorities staff right here, completely dropping their job. Is that an motion you assist?

I do not and I mentioned I did not assist it when the OMB memo got here out, however that is what occurs because of Democrats being unwilling to go a clear CR. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries and Nancy Pelosi have lengthy been on document lecturing America, lecturing Republicans about the want to hold the authorities funded and open, not maintain the American individuals hostage, not inflict pointless ache on the American People or trigger chaos in our financial system and but that is precisely what they’re doing proper now. And so there is a quite simple means to keep away from all of this, go the CR that’s sitting in the Senate.

Right, I take that time. That’s not the place they’re proper now. When you say that you just opposed that when the OMB memo got here out and also you mentioned you opposed that and I heard your colleague in the different physique, Senator Kramer, Kevin Kramer of North Dakota at this time mentioned there’s an actual potential political backlash danger and spoke particularly about individuals in aggressive districts such as you doubtlessly that want some wiggle room right here. I’m questioning, have you ever gotten on the telephone with the White House? Have you advised them that that’s not an motion they need to take that they need to again off from that menace?

Look, I’ve had many conversations with the administration and with my House management, clearly about these points. But once more, to me, that is very straightforward to keep away from all of it. And it’s to simply do the job we have been elected to do, which is to go a CR and hold the authorities funded and open. House Republicans have already handed all 12 appropriations payments via committee. We are prepared to negotiate with the Senate and the administration. There’s no cause to shut the authorities down whilst you’re attempting to cope with all these different points.

I hear you. I simply, you recognize, if you happen to’re John Thune and Chuck Schumer says, okay, however you are not going to get these votes and the purpose is ultimately to get the authorities again open and dealing for the American individuals, do you may have to regulate your strategy ultimately to get these Democratic votes is the query?

Did Chuck Schumer regulate his place in 2019 in the first Trump administration?

I’m not asking about Chuck Schumer, I’m asking about this shutdown proper now. Where we’re proper now.

I perceive, David, however previous is prologue. And so the query is, in case your place is that I’m going to hold the authorities shut down until you acquiesce to my checklist of calls for, why would anyone try this? There is zero cause to negotiate with Chuck Schumer given his previous positioning on this. So from my vantage level, no. And I do not assume there is a single Republican keen to try this. We’ve handed a clear CR. It’s time for the Senate to act. Pass the CR, open up the authorities, after which let’s end our negotiation.

Let’s take a fast break. We’ll have much more with Congressman Mike Lawler of New York in only a second.

We’re again with Congressman Mike Lawler, Republican of New York. Congressman, you had talked about about Chuck Schumer’s calls for right here. I imply, evidently the one large request, demand level of competition that Democrats appear to be pointing to is that this difficulty of healthcare subsidies on the Obamacare trade, doubtlessly practically doubling for hundreds of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of different Americans maybe getting kicked off of medical insurance altogether. I do know that these subsidies do not expire till the finish of the calendar yr, December thirty first, however that appears to be the factor they’re asking for a negotiation on proper now. You your self, I keep in mind in the spring, like when the one large lovely invoice was being debated, you got here on NCS, you probably did a city corridor. You had actual considerations you have been expressing about the healthcare implications of that invoice that you just ultimately supported. Do you see a path the place there’s an precise, actual negotiation for the Democrats if certainly they have been to give their votes to reopen the authorities?

Oh, look, you may have a variety of Republican members of the House which have already signed on to laws to lengthen the ACA subsidies by a yr. Leader Thune is on document saying that they’re open to a negotiation over this specific difficulty. Obviously you may have to have a look at the details right here. The ACA subsidy was put in place throughout COVID as a result of a variety of individuals have been dropping their well being protection as a result of their companies have been being shut down. They have been dropping their jobs. This was meant to assist individuals via that disaster.

The enhanced subsidy, proper?

The enhanced subsidy. It was slated to expire at the finish of this yr. So that is clearly a key dialogue level. We don’t need to have anyone get sticker shock. We don’t need to have individuals get a large improve of their healthcare premiums. But you do not shut the authorities down over this. That is a negotiation to be had throughout the appropriations course of, which, once more, the goal right here is hold the authorities open and funded via November twenty first, to negotiate the appropriations bundle and cope with the healthcare subsidies then. But let me simply level out, there’s extra to their checklist of calls for than simply that, together with on rescissions, in addition to attempting to reverse many facets of the tax invoice that was put in place. They need to get rid of the $50 billion rural well being fund. And they do need to present healthcare to unlawful immigrants. And the reality is.

I’m blissful to undergo that chapter and verse.

No, no, I feel it might be useful if you happen to did. Can you clarify to me precisely how an undocumented immigrant right here who will not be eligible for Medicaid advantages, who’s now eligible for subsidies on the Obamacare trade, how are they getting taxpayer funded free healthcare? Separate and aside, clearly, from exhibiting up at an emergency room, which goes to present care at an Emergency Room. That occurs and that occurs whether or not federal funds are there or not. So I’m speaking about federally funded packages.

Sure, you may have emergency Medicaid, clearly, which has been in existence for a really very long time. And in fact, the hospitals are responsibility sure to deal with individuals. So proper there, clearly you may have people who find themselves right here illegally getting well being advantages via that, primary. Number two.

But wait, that occurs no matter this, appropriate?

I perceive, however that, appropriate.

But that does occur. So let’s cease performing…

But it has nothing to do with this level that you just’re saying about that they’re…

I do know, so let me stroll via. But I feel it is vital that folks really perceive it already occurs. Okay, so this notion that Democrats are saying, no, it would not, they do not get any advantages. That’s a lie.

Obviously, I simply acknowledged that as a reality.

Two, if you have a look at New York State, okay, Kathy Hochul got here to Congress and testified over the summer season. And I requested her level clean, do you assist giving taxpayer funded well being advantages to illegals? And she tried to hem and haw. And I pressed her on her growth of Medicaid in New York, okay? And what they did to enable unlawful immigrants to get Medicaid advantages in New York, spending billions of {dollars}. And she admitted that they did it.

Governor, sure or no, do you assist unlawful immigrants getting taxpayer funded healthcare? Yes or no?

We present healthcare to individuals in want, together with mothers with new infants.

Do you assist giving unlawful immigrants, taxpayer funded healthcare? Yes or no?

We assist giving cash, assist for healthcare.

The reply is sure. You expanded healthcare entry in 2024 beneath Medicaid.

Yes, I did. For senior residents, for mothers with new infants, and I’d do it over again.

Reclaiming my time, Governor…

So if Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have this place that no, it would not occur. We are towards this. Then they need to choose up the telephone and name Kathy Hochul instantly.

‘But do you imply – you are saying in New York at present there are undocumented immigrants who’re allowed to get Medicaid advantages, Medicare advantages, and get Obamacare trade subsidies?

Correct.

Because that is towards federal legislation.

Correct. Go have a look at what New York has finished.

But it is towards federal legislation, proper?

‘Well, is not that the elementary drawback? Kathy Hochul actually got here and testified earlier than Congress. I requested her very explicitly and he or she admitted that they did it. So that is the elementary drawback. Go look California, go have a look at New York. They have spent billions of {dollars}. And by the means, and I’ll offer you one other working example, if Democrats need to discuss healthcare, Tom DiNapoli, the Democratic Comptroller of New York State simply got here out with a report two weeks in the past about how New York spent $1.2 billion on non-New York State residents’ Medicaid premiums. How is that even doable? How is it occurring? And but it did. So- If they’re critical about cleansing up this program, in the event that they’re critically about defending healthcare for Americans and ensuring that American’s healthcare premiums aren’t skyrocketing, then they need to be working with us to root out methods for an abuse. And if Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are so assured of their place that they aren’t attempting to give illegals healthcare advantages beneath Medicaid, then they should not be part of me in calling on Kathy Hochul and New York State Democrats to reverse what they’ve finished in New York.

And Congressman, when President Trump places out on his social media these racist memes of placing Hakeem Jeffries in a sombrero and placing a mustache on his face that’s a part of this debate that we’re speaking about proper now, do you assume that helps the trigger or hurts the trigger?

‘Look, I feel it is a distraction and I feel clearly you guys in the press and positively Hakeem Jeffries have spent an inordinate period of time centered on these memes and what’s on social media as opposed to what the substance of the difficulty is right here. So to me, that is a dis- But I imply is that- It’s a dissraction that the-

It’s a distraction that the President of the United States has injected into the dialog.

Right, and also you all fall for it, hook, line and sinker each time.

Well, it is not about us falling for it. I imply, he is placing that out.

But you are masking it.

But does that, do you assume that helps?

You perceive why he does it and you then guys fall for it. Like, to me, it is a distraction centered on the substance of the difficulty.

‘You are a captivating political animal to me since you’re one in all three Republicans who sit in a district that Kamala Harris gained. Of your different cohort there, one is retiring, one really voted towards the “Big Beautiful Bill.” So you all have a kind of totally different positioning right here. You should know a Harris-Lawler voter. I’d think about you have come throughout one. And I’m questioning if you happen to might describe to me, like given so lots of them exist in your district, clearly. What is that voter? What is a Harris-Lawler voter appear like?

Well, to offer you context on my district, it is undoubtedly a captivating one. It is primarily suburban, instant suburbs north of New York City, Westchester County, Rockland. It’s house to the Clintons, George Soros. So in no way a Republican bastion. There’s about 80,000 extra Democrats than Republicans in the district. 50% of adults have a university diploma or larger. Yet 50% a households in my district have a cop, a firefighter, or a veteran dwelling in the family. So it is prosperous and educated, but blue collar working class. 19% of my district is Latino. I’ve the largest Jewish inhabitants wherever in the nation. So it’s totally various, totally different points, totally different considerations. But I feel, you recognize, look, primarily it is people who find themselves very centered on the substance of points. They could also be extra socially liberal and extra fiscally conservative. You know, Westchester County used to be closely Republican over the final 20 years. It’s undoubtedly trended extra Democratic. Rockland, you recognize, blue collar, has moved rightward. Trump’s largest positive factors have been in Rockland County nationwide. And he gained the Orthodox Jewish vote overwhelmingly. He did nicely in the Jewish communities.

Have you ever heard a voter clarify why they voted for you and for Kamala Harris final yr on the identical poll?

‘Yeah, they might not like the president personally and disagree with, you recognize, his strategy, however they recognize the proven fact that I present up, that I interact in bipartisanship, that I give attention to the substance of those points. I had 11 payments handed final Congress, six of which have been signed into legislation by Joe Biden. I did over 1,200 in-district occasions. So plenty of it’s private and the private connection from me exhibiting up. Today, I did an occasion in-district with about 150 seniors in a housing complicated. And plenty of Democrats there asking me plenty of questions by the finish of it. They mentioned, I actually recognize that you just confirmed up and answered our questions. That’s the distinction, you recognize, in plenty of these races.

And my ultimate query for you on that is, wanting forward to your reelection effort subsequent yr, what would you say are the three single largest elements which are possible to decide whether or not you get reelected or whether or not you lose the seat?

The financial system clearly is primary. I feel clearly the difficulty of affordability, individuals are extremely centered on that. They need to see the financial system transfer in the proper course. I feel the tax invoice, when individuals really perceive all of the key components of the tax invoice and acknowledge that they are going to see a large tax lower, particularly in my district the place state and native taxes are excessive, the elevated SALT cap goes to imply so much for folk. And then I feel plenty of these overseas coverage points, I’m chair of the Middle East and North Africa subcommittee. Obviously the state of affairs in the Middle East is of eager curiosity to plenty of my constituents and that actually issues to plenty of of us in my district. So look, there’s plenty of points. I feel what individuals most recognize about me, I’m not afraid to say the place I stand. I speak to everyone. I’m going on each community and reply the questions. And I feel individuals recognize the reality that you just present up and also you’re combating for them. And that is what I’ll proceed to do.

Well, I actually recognize you spending a while with me at this time on this podcast.

Thanks so much.

That’s it for this week’s version of the NCS Political Briefing. We’ll be again with a brand new episode subsequent Friday. Thanks a lot for listening.