The debate round the Arctic is changing into hotter than ever as US President Donald Trump continues to insist on Greenland changing into a part of the United States. But whereas Trump’s calls for that the US take over a territory belonging to one in all its closest and most dependable allies have puzzled the world, the race for the Arctic has been on for a long time.
And for a very long time, Russia has been successful it.
There’s no query that Moscow has had a dominating presence in the Arctic area.
It controls roughly half of the land and half of the maritime unique financial zone north of the Arctic Circle. Two thirds of the Arctic area’s residents stay in Russia.
And whereas the Arctic accounts for solely a small fraction of the international economic system – some 0.4% based on the Arctic Council, the discussion board that represents Arctic states – Russia controls two thirds of the area’s GDP.
Russia has been expanding its navy footprint in the Arctic for a long time, investing in new and current amenities in the area.
There are 66 navy websites and a whole lot extra protection installations and outposts inside the broader Arctic area, based on the Simons Foundation, a Canadian non-profit that displays Arctic safety and nuclear disarmament.
According to publicly obtainable information and the Simons Foundation analysis, 30 are in Russia and 36 in NATO international locations with Arctic territory: 15 in Norway – together with one British base – eight in the United States, 9 in Canada, three in Greenland and one in Iceland.
And whereas not all bases are created equal – specialists say that Russia can’t presently match NATO’s navy capabilities – the scale of Russia’s navy presence, and the tempo at which Moscow has expanded it in current years, is a significant concern.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based protection suppose tank, mentioned that Russia has in current years invested a major amount of cash and effort in modernizing its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, which kinds the spine of its navy energy in the Arctic. As it continues to struggle its conflict in Ukraine, Russia has additionally improved its radar, drone and missile capabilities.
The image wasn’t at all times so perilous. For years after the finish of the Cold War, the Arctic was one in all the areas the place it appeared like Russia and Western international locations might really do enterprise collectively.
The Arctic Council, based in 1996, tried to carry Russia nearer to the different seven Arctic international locations and permit for tighter cooperation on points resembling biodiversity, local weather and the safety of indigenous individuals’s rights.
For a time, there was even an try and work collectively on safety, with Russia attending two high-level conferences of the Arctic Chiefs of Defense Forum earlier than being kicked out over its unlawful annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Most types of cooperation have since been suspended, with relations between the West and Moscow reaching a brand new post-Cold War low after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023 and 2024 has successfully cut up the Arctic area into two roughly even halves: one managed by Russia and one by NATO.
Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the US “needs” Greenland for nationwide safety causes, pointing to Russian and Chinese ambitions in the Arctic. He has argued that Denmark, which has sovereignty over the world’s largest island, shouldn’t be sturdy sufficient to defend it in opposition to threats posed by the two international locations.
While not an Arctic nation, China has not been hiding its curiosity in the area. The nation declared itself to be a “near-Arctic state” in 2018 and outlined a “polar silk road” initiative for Arctic transport.
In 2024, China and Russia launched a joint patrol in the Arctic, a part of a broader collaboration between the two.
But safety shouldn’t be the solely cause why curiosity in the Arctic is rising. The area is reworking sooner than another space of the world as the local weather disaster deepens, warming up round 4 occasions sooner than the international common.
Sea ice is shrinking at a speedy fee. But whereas scientists are warning that this might have extremely damaging penalties for the pure world and the livelihoods of the individuals who depend on it, there are numerous who argue melting sea ice might additionally unlock an enormous financial alternative in phrases of mining and transport.
Two transport routes that have been just about unviable simply twenty years in the past are actually opening up due to the dramatic ice soften – though researchers and environmental watchdogs have warned that sending fleets of ships via this pristine, distant and harmful atmosphere is an ecological and human disaster waiting to happen.
The Northern Sea Route, which runs alongside the northern Russian coast, and the Northwest Passage, hugging the north coast of North America, have each been just about ice-free throughout the peak of the summer time since the late 2000s.
The Northern Sea Route shortens the crusing time between Asia and Europe to round two weeks, roughly half the time it takes by way of the conventional Suez Canal route.
While elements of the route have been utilized by Russia throughout Soviet occasions to succeed in and provide distant areas, the challenges it posed meant it was largely disregarded as an choice for worldwide transport.
That modified in the early 2010s when the passage grew to become extra accessible, and since then the variety of journeys via it has risen from a handful every year to round 100.
Russia has stepped up its use of the route since 2022, utilizing it to move oil and fuel to China after sanctions lower it off from its earlier European prospects.
Similarly, the Northwest Passage has additionally change into extra viable, with the variety of via sailings rising from a pair a 12 months in the early 2000s to as many as 41 in 2023.
A 3rd, central route that might take ships immediately throughout the North Pole might additionally change into doable in the future, though the stage of ice soften that might be crucial for this could carry alarming penalties, dashing up warming of the planet, rising climate extremes and decimating treasured ecosystems in the space
As for mining, there’s a chance that the melting ice might expose land that was beforehand inconceivable to take advantage of. Greenland in specific could possibly be a scorching spot for coal, copper, gold, rare-earth components and zinc, based on the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.
However, researchers say it could be extraordinarily troublesome and costly to extract Greenland’s minerals as a result of a lot of the island’s mineral deposits are in distant areas above the Arctic Circle, the place there’s a mile-thick polar ice sheet and darkness reigns a lot of the 12 months.
The concept that these sources could possibly be simply extracted for the good thing about the US was described to NCS as “completely bonkers” by Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at The Arctic Institute.
While Trump has just lately centered on the safety features of Greenland, his former nationwide safety adviser Mike Waltz instructed Fox News in 2024 that the administration’s concentrate on Greenland was “about critical minerals” and “natural resources.”