New York
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For the higher a part of the final decade, sharper cameras, larger screens and longer battery life have outlined annual smartphone upgrades.
But which will now not be sufficient to dazzle shoppers – no less than not in Apple’s opinion.
The firm on Tuesday announced the iPhone Air, the primary main design overhaul to its flagship product in almost a decade. An Apple govt described it as being “so thin and light, it seems to disappear in your hands” in the course of the firm’s keynote presentation.
The iPhone Air’s debut comes as Apple’s hit product, and smartphones extra broadly, are in want of a refresh. The smartphone market has lastly rebounded after years of slumping gross sales, dragged decrease partly by an absence of compelling new options. That means shoppers are holding onto their smartphones for longer durations of time.
Launch weekend gross sales of the iPhone 16 in 2024 were estimated to be lower than the earlier yr, ramping up stress for Apple to ship with the iPhone Air and iPhone 17 lineup.
Analysts have been ready greater than a decade for an improve “supercycle” just like the one Apple skilled greater than a decade in the past with the iPhone 6, certainly one of Apple’s most profitable telephones in historical past.
It’s unclear if the iPhone Air might help Apple ship that, however some analysts are optimistic {that a} modern new iPhone will do extra to persuade consumers to improve than the iterative updates of years previous. And extra importantly, the brand new gadget might set the route for the place Apple takes the iPhone subsequent.
“The new iPhone 17 lineup represents the biggest design overhaul since the iPhone X. In itself, this is a strong reason for users to upgrade,” Francisco Jeronimo, an analyst for the International Data Corporation, mentioned Tuesday through electronic mail.
The smartphone market is popping out of a tough patch, with gross sales seeing their largest ever decline in a single quarter within the fourth quarter of 2022 due to sluggish demand, in accordance to the IDC. Counterpoint Research, one other main agency that tracks world smartphone shipments, additionally reported that the smartphone market noticed eight consecutive quarters of decline in 2023.
The scenario is totally different in 2025; gross sales grew by 1.4% year-over-year within the second quarter of this yr in accordance to the IDC, though the report says unemployment, inflation and tariff uncertainty are nonetheless hindering demand.
Consumers are certainly holding onto their units for longer durations of time; Morgan Stanley not too long ago estimated smartphone alternative cycles to be 4.7 years, with the potential for that to prolong to 5 years in 2026. Verizon CEO and chairman told CNBC in 2024 that subscribers had been holding onto their telephones for “way over 36 months,” which he described as being “very long.”
“We remember when we changed a phone every year,” he mentioned. “That was exciting times.”
When individuals do improve, it’s usually out of necessity reasonably than a need for brand new options and applied sciences, in accordance to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The agency, which tracks shopping for habits amongst US smartphone consumers, discovered that 68% of American smartphone patrons improve their cellphone as a result of it wants changing, as a result of the battery life is too quick, or the display screen is cracked, for instance.
That actuality isn’t misplaced on tech giants, which have been making an attempt to reinvigorate curiosity in smartphones for years. Samsung launched its first foldable cellphone in 2019 and said that preorders of its most up-to-date Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip, launched in July, elevated by greater than 25% in contrast to the earlier mannequin.
Samsung was among the many first smartphone makers to launch a foldable cellphone, and since then almost each main Android participant, from Motorola to Google and Chinese tech giants like Oppo, have adopted go well with.
Apple has but to launch a foldable cellphone, but it surely’s spent years getting ready for a state of affairs wherein shoppers aren’t lining up to purchase iPhones anymore by rising its secure of digital providers and wearable units over the previous decade. Those segments have offered some buffer to satiate buyers in periods of weak iPhone development; Apple’s digital providers division is now its second-largest enterprise behind the iPhone – though latest court docket battles have challenged Apple’s dominance.
For the primary time in almost a decade, Apple is releasing an iPhone that appears and feels considerably totally different. The iPhone’s look adjustments subtly from yr to yr, but it surely hasn’t dramatically shifted since Apple launched the iPhone X in 2017, the primary mannequin to function a bigger display screen with Face ID as a substitute of the house button.
The iPhone Air, regardless of its compromises in contrast to the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro (it solely has one digicam, for instance), might attraction to patrons that desire a cellphone that feels new however don’t care about digicam upgrades or bigger screens.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives cited “bold redesigns” as an element that might contribute to an uptick in iPhone upgrades over the following 12 to 18 months, he wrote in a analysis notice on Tuesday. He estimates that 315 million of 1.5 billion iPhone world iPhone customers haven’t upgraded their gadget in 4 years and are due for a refresh.
Analysts at market analysis agency Forrester additionally imagine the iPhone Air’s daring new design could possibly be sufficient to spark renewed curiosity within the iPhone. Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee wrote in an electronic mail on Tuesday that the iPhone Air will possible attraction to those that have “been reluctant to upgrade their old models for the lack of a differentiated option.”
The new Air mannequin might additionally function a sign that Apple is rethinking the iPhone’s design extra broadly. The concentrate on slimness may benefit a future foldable iPhone, ought to Apple ever develop one. Phones that fold in half just like the Galaxy Z Fold and Google Pixel Pro Fold are normally thicker than your common cellphone when closed, generally resembling two telephones stacked on prime of each other. That makes thinness all of the extra vital.
The iPhone Air additionally features a new wi-fi networking chip known as the N1 that the corporate says ought to enhance Wi-Fi and Bluetooth efficiency. Improving these forms of connections could possibly be vital if Apple had been to create an iPhone with no ports as reviews from Bloomberg have indicated, as a result of such a tool would rely solely on wi-fi connections. The monetary information outlet reported in March that Apple might revive efforts to develop an iPhone with no charging ports if the iPhone Air is a success.
Setting the stage for a extra dramatic overhaul could possibly be vital amid mounting hypothesis that new forms of AI units like smart glasses might in the future displace a number of the smartphone’s core duties. Meta, Google and Samsung are all investing in good glasses that may analyze a person’s environment and reply questions, whereas OpenAI is collaborating with former Apple design chief Jony Ive on a mysterious new AI gadget.
That doesn’t imply the smartphone will go away anytime quickly. It’s extra possible that the way wherein individuals use smartphones will change if merchandise like good glasses acquire traction, simply as laptops and desktops are nonetheless in broad use, whilst they shifted away from being the first approach individuals entry the web within the cell period.
Apple is conscious of that potential transition, with the corporate’s senior vice chairman of providers Eddy Cue saying “you may not need an iPhone 10 years from now” throughout his courtroom testimony within the Google search antitrust trial, in accordance to Bloomberg.
The iPhone Air could possibly be a primary step towards what an Apple smartphone made for that period appears like.