The biggest fantasy football busts of 2025 caught us off guard — what needs to change in 2026?

One of my favourite film collection all through my late highschool and early school days was The Matrix. Back then, the martial arts sequences (I do know kung-fu) had me on the sting of my seat. And there’s in all probability an image floating across the web someplace of me dressed as Morpheus for Halloween. But afterward, the idea of alternative and Neo’s conversations with The Oracle got here again to me at this level of the fantasy season.

I’ve made a lot of mistaken calls all through the course of the 2025 season. Just watch the compilation the crew put together after Justin Boone ran away with the Primetime Picks phase. But whenever you’re in the thick of it, there’s all the time one other week to work out — a brand new set of angles to take into account. Now, with a while on our arms, let’s undergo some of this 12 months’s biggest busts. And not simply why we made the selection, but in addition what it’d take for us to take into account them once more in ‘26.

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Justin Jefferson, Vikings (Draft Rank: WR2, EOS Rank: WR26)

Let’s be trustworthy with one another right here. Everybody who drafted Justin Jefferson in the early first spherical knew the dangers along with his scenario. But his ADP, at worst, indicated that we had been keen to push the concerns coming out of training camp apart. Besides, HC Kevin O’Connell had constructed up belief inside the fanbase and fantasy neighborhood over time. From Kirk Cousins to “The Passtronaut Game,” O’Connell’s standing as a QB whisperer was untarnished. And to begin the season, the outcomes had been favorable for people who took the plunge on Jefferson:

Week 1 was about pretty much as good a season-opener because the Vikings and fantasy people may’ve hoped. Jefferson had a 39% goal share, caught JJ McCarthy’s first TD and the Vikings gained in primetime. However, McCarthy’s peripherals set off alarm bells. He averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback with a 39.1% passing success fee on simply 20 makes an attempt. In different phrases, what we noticed wasn’t sustainable. However, no matter development plans O’Connell had for McCarthy went out the window, leaving Jefferson in the worst scenario doable.

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• w/ Wentz: 29.4% (goal share), 68% (catchable goal fee), 18.2 (PPR PPG)

• w/ McCarthy: 30.4%, 60%, 9.4

• w/ Brosmer: 25.6%, 65%, 4.7

I brought this up back in Week 8, totally acknowledging that Carson Wentz was a catastrophe, however he at the least knew how to get the ball to Jefferson. I’m positive folks with Jefferson on their roster went by means of the identical course of every week. They’d see him averaging 8.2 targets per sport (tied for ninth-most amongst receivers), verify the matchup and pray for a landing.

His downside wasn’t quantity. It was both an inaccurate throw or an ill-timed miscue that dragged him down. But (hopefully) these are issues the QB and WR can work on over the offseason.

For proper now, I’m assuming McCarthy (with a healthy Christian Darrisaw and a plan to mitigate Ryan Kelly’s potential retirement) would be the Week 1 starter. With an offseason to get proper, information of the triumvirate of McCarthy, O’Connell and Jefferson getting collectively to determine what ideas the on-field duo are most comfy with would get me again on board. The two discovered a rhythm in Week 16, with Jefferson operating his second-most snaps from the slot and McCarthy triggering to throw quicker than he had all season (2.65 seconds). If they’ll use that sport because the blueprint for designing the offense for 2026, Jefferson’s ADP might be price the price.

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Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (Draft Rank: WR9, EOS Rank: WR44)

As I’ve usually stated, progress isn’t linear. The success a participant accrues one 12 months gained’t all the time translate to the subsequent, particularly if the scenario modifications. And it did for Brian Thomas Jr. in his second 12 months. But the changes had been supposed to be optimistic.

First, he’d be getting his QB again. Trevor Lawrence and the then-rookie performed collectively for half of the season earlier than a shoulder harm and concussion put TLaw on IR. However, even with Mac Jones taking up, Thomas ranked in the highest 5 in yards per route run by season’s finish. He confirmed the power to win at every level as a route runner. Bringing in Liam Coen because the play-caller was all we would have liked to see to maintain Thomas as a staple of the 1-2 flip in drafts.

But there have been issues from the beginning.

I may excuse a 25% goal fee in Week 1, after watching Thomas soar to 35% of the appears to shut out ‘24. Jacksonville just traded up to add Travis Hunter. The target distribution would take some time to get right. But catching just one of the seven balls thrown his way was a red flag. And a Week 2 wrist injury, causing Coen to area questions on Thomas’ effort, didn’t assist issues. So, with one other mouth to feed and a bruised wrist (and ego), the second-year receiver took a step again regardless of the same workload.

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• Target Rate (Weeks 1-7): 21.3% (2024), 21.8% (2025)

• Slot Snap Rate: 22.9%, 21.9%

Now, the blame wasn’t all on the receiver. Lawrence ranked twenty fourth in adjusted completion proportion over the identical span, with misfires to Hunter and everybody else. But it didn’t deter Coen from testing what labored greatest.

Against the 49ers, Thomas primarily performed on the perimeter, however in the brief and intermediate elements of the sphere (9.7 air yards per goal). Lawrence and Thomas began to get in sync on a number of out-breaking routes, however nonetheless no touchdowns. A pair of weeks later, Thomas was in the slot for 33.3% and 44.4% of his targets, avoiding the brunt of the Seahawks’ and Rams’ protection and eventually discovering the top zone. The loss of Hunter and Thomas’ high-ankle sprain delayed the trio from getting the much-needed reps required for this offense. But one Jakobi Meyers commerce later, and we’re beginning to see what works for BTJ in Year 2.

Sometimes one of the best resolution is the only one. What’s a manner to use a 6’3”-209-lbs receiver who can run a 4.33 40-yard sprint? Send him downfield!

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Since Thomas’ Week 13 return, 15 of his 26 targets have come on out-breakers or vertical routes. He’s averaging 17.8 air yards per goal. But, extra importantly, his catch fee is up to 57.7% with only one fewer first down than Parker Washington. I’m excited to see how the Jags carry out in the playoffs, however the bigger query is what to anticipate subsequent 12 months.

Hunter must be again in the lineup, and Meyers acquired a multi-year extension. These are good issues for a company, however robust for fantasy as a result of Thomas is already on the trail to getting again in sync with Lawrence because the staff’s X-receiver. And with the personnel in place, there’s not a lot to counsel that’ll change. But Thomas does have two issues working in his favor. One, he can function across the middle of the field, opening up extra ideas for him in the long run. Plus, Lawrence continues to be as aggressive as ever. At 9.5 air yards per try, there’ll be sufficient targets for Thomas to keep in the low-end WR2, high-end WR3 dialog for 2026.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers (Draft Rank: WR11, EOS Rank: WR27)

I’ll speak to Matt Harmon about this, however we must always give you one other receiver archetype. Harmon’s been one of the best at contextualizing WR play, with it now being understood that outdoors pass-catchers are typically taking part in a special sport than the blokes on the inside. But then once more, Ladd McConkey is perhaps difficult that concept.

There had been 12 receivers that lined up in the slot on greater than half of their snaps. Of these 12, seven earned greater than 5 targets per sport. See for those who can spot the distinction.

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• DeVonta Smith: 6.8 (Targets per Game), 11.9 (Receiving aDOT)

• Wan’Dale Robinson: 8.8, 8.5

Hopefully, the clip gave it away. In any case, McConkey has the “coveted” slot function that we’ve cherished for different WRs in the previous, however each he and Smith are downfield threats from their pre-snap alignment. That’s supposed to be the simple job! For reference, when Ja’Marr Chase goes to the within, his aDOT drops to 4.2 air yards, and he has a 73.3% catch fee. Meanwhile, we’re simply hoping McConkey sees the ball thrown his manner. At a 26% goal fee to finish his rookie marketing campaign, we didn’t assume alternatives can be onerous to come by.

However, we anticipated him to be Justin Herbert’s solely possibility when concentrating on the intermediate and deep elements of the sphere. We had been mistaken.

• Target Share (on throws of 5 or extra air yards): 24.2% (McConkey), 18.4% (Quentin Johnston)

• Yards per Route Run: 2.1, 2.5

Quentin Johnston’s ascension into being a dependable possibility has been one of the brilliant spots for the Chargers. Even if the third-year receiver performs on the boundary, his skill to come down with contested catches (relative to the earlier two years) and create first downs (simply eight fewer than McConkey, with two fewer video games performed) has unfold the Chargers’ passing sport out. And that’s with out even mentioning Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden II popping up all year long. Plus, I’m assuming most will level to L.A/.’s offensive line (or lack thereof) as the explanation behind the shakeup for the previous Bulldog. But even when Herbert’s safety was wholesome, the rotation wasn’t working in McConkey’s favor.

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• Target Share (Weeks 1-3): 19.8%, third (out of the three WRs)

• Air Yard Share: 19.4%, third

• Yards per Route Run: 1.37, third

Let’s assume Keenan Allen retires. But then one of Harris or Keandre Lambert-Smith soaks up some appears. Gadsen takes a step ahead. Simply put, there’ll all the time be anyone inside the receiving corps for Herbert. More importantly, an possibility to permit him to assault downfield (9.4 air yards per try in the primary three weeks) makes McConkey’s slot function much less invaluable than others. As a outcome, with out a drop in draft value, it’s onerous to see him returning worth in 2026.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers (Draft Rank: RB10, EOS Rank: RB35)

The necessities for an early-round RB are easy: keep a majority of the carries and earn a major quantity of targets. Both descriptors sound subjective, so I’ll add some thresholds.

Over the 5 seasons earlier than ‘25, a rusher needed to average at least 15.0 PPR PPG to be in the top 10 by the end of the season. Their rush share was 53.6%. Plus, the average target rate was 10.6%, with the lowest in the sample being 3.8% (2021 Derrick Henry).

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Bucky Irving’s school profile highlighted his pass-catching ability set, and he was up to an 11% share on the shut of ‘24. With the former fourth-round RB at the head of a potent offense, despite losing their OC, Irving’s standing because the RB1 wasn’t in doubt. And even with the staff coming into the season with offensive line issues, his dual-threat skill sustained his worth.

We couldn’t have requested for a greater opening script by means of the primary 4 weeks. Baker Mayfield was underneath hearth on 41.8% of his dropbacks, however nonetheless averaged the Eleventh-most makes an attempt of any starter. Accordingly, Irving was simply behind Jahmyr Gibbs in targets per sport. Coupled along with his 17.3 dashing makes an attempt every week, we had an RB1 on our arms.

But, of course, accidents had to damage every thing.

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Now, don’t get me mistaken. Irving continues to be fun to watch. He turns what would be a loss for some into a positive play at the least as soon as per week. However, there aren’t any model factors in fantasy scoring (but). Each contact has to imply one thing (e.g., like a reception for a primary down) or set the staff up for a rating (e.g., an explosive achieve). That’s why contextualized utilization can level us towards the precise gamers. And in Irving’s case, they had been indicating we must always look elsewhere.

• Rushing Share: 71% (pre-injury), 64% (after return from harm)

• Short-Yardage Share: 79%, 58%

• Two-Minute Snaps: 75%, 54%

During the primary month, the Bucs’ RBs loved a 20.1% goal share from Mayfield. But with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan again, there have been fewer makes an attempt to cut up between Irving and Rachaad White. Even worse for Irving was his loss because the goal-line possibility. To be honest, Tampa solely ran one operating play from inside its opponents’ 5-yard line by means of the primary month. But that quantity has been up to eight since Week 13, and Irving hasn’t seen the ball as soon as. Sean Tucker (7 carries) and White (1) have that job. So, unbiased of Tampa making it to the postseason, we’ll nonetheless have questions on Irving’s function heading into 2026.

Both White (unrestricted) and Tucker (restricted) are free brokers on the finish of the season. But since neither carries a major cap hit, one or each might be again. If it’s simply Irving plus one other, we will venture extra work funneling again his manner with the offseason to get wholesome. However, with one other marketing campaign and no actual growth as a goal-line or short-yardage possibility, Irving must be extra of an RB2 than a top-12 possibility.

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Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (Draft Rank: RB15, EOS Rank: RB23)

Honestly, taking a look at Kenneth Walker III’s ranks from the draft and thru Week 17, you may make the case that he wasn’t a bust. But it doesn’t really feel that manner. After an injury-riddled ‘24, Walker’s 38.6% compelled missed deal with fee was the metric fantasy analysts (me) latched onto when projecting what issues would appear like this 12 months. And we acquired glimpses of it all through the season.

However, his absence gave us extra time to watch Zach Charbonnet. And we (once more, I) ought to’ve taken discover. Across his 5 begins in the course of the fantasy common season, Charbonnet completed as an RB1 thrice. Sure, he benefited from a pair of brief runs for a TD. But the underlying metrics pointed to a cut up backfield lengthy earlier than Week 1 got here round.

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• Rushing Success Rate (as starters in 2024): 42.5% (Walker), 47.3% (Charbonnet)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.2, 4.1

• Explosive Play Rate: 6.8%, 8.8%

In both case, the attract of Walker in an outside-zone blocking scheme that OC Klint Kubiak was putting in stored the veteran RB as a staple of early/center rounds. It was honest to query whether or not or not the brand new offensive workers would see Walker because the unquestioned bellcow, however a foot injury sustained in early August ought to’ve added extra chilly water on the thought. But even after the bye, he couldn’t separate from Charbonnet on the identical ideas that had been supposed to elevate him into the RB1 dialogue.

• Rushing Success Rate (on outdoors zone runs after the bye): 51.9% (Charbonnet), 27.9% (Walker)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 5.9, 4.4

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 37.0%, 39.5%

My hope for Walker is a change in surroundings for 2026. He’s one of 16 players on Seattle’s roster who will be free agents after the season. Five of that are on the defensive facet with over 500 snaps this season. With HC Mike Macdonald being a defensive coach, prioritizing his defenders and letting Walker test the market would make sense. Minnesota, Kansas City and Jacksonville (assuming the Jaguars transfer on from Travis Etienne Jr.) can be very best touchdown spots for a rusher with Walker’s imaginative and prescient and utility in the passing sport.

However, if he re-signs with Seattle, it’d be onerous to anticipate something totally different than what we noticed in 2025.