Rows of worshippers, some with their faces raised towards the sky, others with their heads bowed, prayed for rain at a mosque in Tehran earlier this month. Theirs is an more and more desperate plea. The metropolis is grappling with a water crisis so severe the Iranian president has prompt individuals may have to evacuate. The weeks tick by, nonetheless the rains don’t arrive.
There are fears water may run out fully in this huge, bustling metropolis, whose metropolitan space is dwelling to round 15 million individuals.
In a speech earlier this month, President Masoud Pezeshkian said water will be rationed if it doesn’t rain in Tehran by December. If the lack of rain continues, residents “have to evacuate,” he mentioned. Many consultants say evacuation is unfeasible, however Pezeshkian’s rhetoric displays the seriousness of Iran’s state of affairs.
Tehran is in the highlight, however this is a crisis that goes nicely past the capital. Around 20 provinces haven’t seen a single drop of rain since the begin of the wet season at the finish of September, mentioned Mohsen B. Mesgaran, an affiliate professor of plant sciences at the University of California, Davis. Roughly 10% of the nation’s dams have successfully run dry, in keeping with Reuters.
The roots of Iran’s water woes echo these in many other parts of the world: a long time of over-extraction; growing older, leaky infrastructure; a proliferation of dams erected throughout rivers; mismanagement; accusations of corruption. Through it all runs the thread of local weather change, driving hotter, drier climate, which means 12 months after 12 months, dried-out reservoirs will not be replenished.
Iran’s present drought is the worst for not less than 40 years and water ranges are shrinking “at a time of year when you would normally expect storage to be recovering, not collapsing further,” mentioned Amir AghaKouchak, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Irvine.
Iran, a principally semi-arid nation, is no stranger to water shortages, however hardly ever have they affected Tehran, dwelling to most of the nation’s wealthy and highly effective.
The principal reservoirs supplying the metropolis are solely round 11% full, in keeping with Mohsen Ardakani, the director common of the Tehran Provincial Water and Sanitation Authority, as reported by Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency earlier this month.
The Latyan Dam, round 15 miles exterior the metropolis, is only about 9% full. Since May, the reservoir, nestled in the foothills of the Alborz mountains, has receded so a lot it has left an virtually totally dry riverbed in its wake, etched with only a few trickling streams.
The Amir Kabir Dam, about 40 miles northwest of Tehran, is additionally at perilously low ranges, at present at round 8% of its complete capability, in keeping with Reuters.
Beyond Tehran, water ranges in the reservoirs supplying Iran’s second largest metropolis Mashhad, dwelling to round 3 million individuals, are at solely round 3%, mentioned Hossein Esmailian, head of Mashhad’s water and wastewater utility firm, in keeping with ISNA News.
Iran’s state of affairs isn’t a brief time period catastrophe, however a rolling, long-term disaster bringing irreversible damages, mentioned Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, who beforehand served as deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment.
He described the nation as being in “water bankruptcy,” extracting from its rivers lakes and wetlands (akin to its checking account) and its underground aquifers (its financial savings account) at a a lot sooner fee than they’re replenished.
The authorities’s intention to attain meals self-sufficiency, partly in response to Western sanctions, is largely chargeable for the state of affairs, consultants say. “For decades, policies have encouraged the expansion of irrigated agriculture in arid regions,” AghaKouchak mentioned.
Irrigated farmland has doubled since 1979 and crops are thirsty, particularly rice, an Iranian staple. The overwhelming majority of Iran’s water, round 90%, goes to agriculture.
Lake Urmia, in northwestern Iran, is a transparent casualty. Once considered one of the planet’s largest saltwater lakes, Urmia has shriveled over the previous a long time. Drought has performed a job however the larger driver is the dams and wells that have sprung up close by to assist farms, choking off provide to the lake. They have “pushed the system beyond its limits,” Mesgaran mentioned.
Water-guzzling industries equivalent to oil and gasoline have additionally been constructed in Iran’s arid and semi-arid areas, including to the strain in already fragile areas.
Swelling city populations have elevated demand, too. The state of affairs is exacerbated by growing older infrastructure. “An estimated 30% of treated drinking water is lost through old, leaky distribution systems, and there’s very little water recycling,” Mesgaran mentioned.
On high of all these issues is the local weather crisis. “The house was on fire because of mismanagement, and then climate change … is adding fuel,” Madani mentioned.
Iran is now in its sixth consecutive 12 months of drought, which is now at a scale, depth and period that “is unprecedented in modern times,” Madani mentioned.
The circumstances driving it — low rainfall and hovering temperatures — wouldn’t have been attainable with out human-caused local weather change, in keeping with a current analysis by World Weather Attribution community.
For individuals in Tehran, it’s an anxious wait. There was hope fall would carry much-needed rains however, apart from just a few remoted bursts, they’ve didn’t arrive.
Authorities say there isn’t formal water rationing, however residents report lowered water strain. Sometimes the faucets run dry for intervals of time.
Government communication with the public has been fragmented and inconsistent, Madani mentioned, resulting in excessive ranges of distrust and flourishing conspiracy theories, together with the concept that overseas powers are modifying Iran’s climate and stealing clouds.
Evacuation appears a distant risk, regardless of the president’s phrases. “Where would people even go?” Mesgaran requested. “The country is facing one of its worst economic situations, and most households simply can’t afford such a move.”
Temporary evacuations may be extra probably. In the summer time, authorities introduced emergency public holidays to steer individuals to go away the metropolis. “If you have only days or weeks of water left, even saving for a few hours can make a huge difference,” Madani mentioned.
The authorities has additionally tried cloud seeding, where particles are injected into clouds to attract out rain or snow. There is little scientific consensus on how nicely this works, nonetheless. “It’s a good solution for desperate governments to just show that they’re taking action,” Madani mentioned.
To actually deal with the long-term crisis means widespread reform, together with diversifying the economic system away from water-intensive sectors like farming, consultants say. This, nonetheless, is prone to be extraordinarily unpopular and will trigger massive unemployment issues.
For now, officers are pinning their hopes on — and directing prayers towards — the arrival of rain. “In the past, people would go out to the desert to pray for rain,” mentioned Mehdi Chamran, head of Tehran’s City Council, in keeping with a Reuters report citing state media. “Perhaps we should not neglect that tradition.”
The state of affairs is so acute, nonetheless, that even when the rains come, it’s unlikely to be sufficient. “Nature is now imposing hard limits,” AghaKouchak mentioned. Aquifers which were drained is not going to rebound and ecosystems that collapse can’t rapidly be restored.
The longer the authorities waits to make significant reforms, the fewer choices stay, he added. “The water crisis is not only an environmental issue; it is increasingly intertwined with Iran’s social and political future.”