The NFL is again, and there’s no higher solution to rejoice than by constructing a same-game parlay. The downside? Most SGPs are longshots designed to empty your bankroll. Those flashy +1,000,000 tickets look enjoyable, however they nearly by no means money. The books need you to wager on these! At FTN, we take a special method to SGPs.
Using our Same Game Parlay Tool, powered by 10,000 simulations for each matchup, we establish spots the place the chances are literally mispriced. That means you’re not simply throwing darts, however you’re constructing parlays with actual edges, even when the payouts are massive.
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Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Same-Game Parlay
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas in what could possibly be a blowout on Sunday Night Football. Coming into the sport, many of the media consideration will probably be on Parsons, who was shockingly traded to Green Bay proper earlier than the season began. But whereas everyone seems to be distracted by that storyline, my focus is on the Cowboys protection, particularly how unhealthy it’s been. They rank lifeless final in DVOA in opposition to the cross, and after struggling vs. the Browns, the Packers ought to bounce proper again and have an enormous sport on offense this Sunday. With that in thoughts, here’s a three-leg parlay specializing in the Packer offense.
This one pays +525 on BetMGM.
Leg 1: Jordan Love Over 234.5 Passing Yards
Jordan Love actually struggled in opposition to the Browns, however he additionally didn’t play like himself. He sometimes likes to throw downfield and play aggressively, so it was stunning to see him end a sport with an aDOT of 1.9 yards. In Weeks 1 and a couple of, he was main the NFL with an aDOT of 12.5. This week he’s going through a Cowboy protection that’s fourth within the league in aDOT in opposition to at 9.6 and is third within the league in catchable air yards in opposition to at 571. Expect an explosive efficiency by Love this week.
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Leg 2: Tucker Kraft Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
Tucker Kraft popped up on the damage report final week, scaring Packers followers and fantasy soccer gamers alike. But whereas he wasn’t productive in Week 3, all I care about is the truth that he had a 90% route participation fee, indicating he’s in good bodily well being. He ought to get again on monitor this week in a matchup in opposition to the terrible Cowboy protection.
Leg 3: Dontayvion Wicks Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
Whenever a receiver is out for Green Bay, bettors love to have a look at Wicks props. While he has discovered success when given the chance previously, issues are totally different now after drafting Matthew Golden. Even with Jayden Reed out final week, Wicks ran a route on simply 70% of the dropbacks, working 5 fewer than Golden. The workforce additionally combined Savion Williams and Malik Heath into the rotation. All advised, Wicks had simply 4 targets and turned it into 21 yards. Even in a juicy matchup, this line signifies Wicks is a full-time starter, which he’s not.
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