The 2026 NCAA tournament bracket will arrive in only a few hours. For now, all consideration turns to the bubble, the place teams both nonetheless discover themselves enjoying for an automated bid or ready to see if their physique of work is deserving of an at-large choice to March Madness.
With convention tournaments wrapping up and Selection Sunday upon us, Yahoo Sports is breaking down this yr’s remaining bubble teams.
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NOTE: KenPom rankings are up to date as of 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, and all NCAA WAB and NET rankings and staff stats are up to date by video games performed on March 13.
Miami (Ohio)
Record: 31-1 (18-0 MAC)
KenPom rating: 93
WAB rating: 38
NET rating: 64
The RedHawks ought to be in, even after falling to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. They’re the first staff to writer an ideal common season since 2020-21 Gonzaga, and, maybe extra importantly, they’re top 40 in the significant “Wins Above Bubble” (WAB) metric. A software to assist mitigate energy of schedule discrepancies, WAB measures a staff’s whole quantity of victories towards what number of wins the common bubble staff can be anticipated to tally when confronted with the identical schedule.
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NCAA senior vice chairman of basketball Dan Gavitt told CBS Sports that final yr’s choice of the remaining at-large teams to make the 68-team area was “probably more highly correlated” to a staff’s WAB rating than its NET rating, a metric that takes opponent high quality, effectivity of efficiency and recreation location into consideration. KenPom ranks Miami simply 93rd, however an eligible one-loss staff has by no means missed the fashionable NCAA match, in response to ESPN. A 31-1 file and a top-40 WAB rating will possible ship the RedHawks to the dance and provides the MAC a number of bids for the first time since 1998-99.
Peter Suder is the MAC Player of the Year. He leads a gaggle of six RedHawks gamers averaging double-digit scoring figures. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
(Dylan Buell by way of Getty Images)
Missouri
Record: 20-12 (10-8 SEC)
KenPom rating: 52
WAB rating: 41
NET rating: 58
A stretch that began at the finish of January and continued all through February appeared to make the Tigers a lock for the NCAA match. They gained six of their eight video games in that span, notably taking down then-No. 19 Vanderbilt and then-No. 22 Tennessee alongside the method. But head coach Dennis Gates’ staff has misplaced all three of its video games in March, together with an SEC match second-round matchup versus Kentucky.
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That momentum-killing skid started with a 16-point setback towards an Oklahoma squad that is additionally on the bubble. Fortunately for the Tigers, they’ve 5 Quad 1 wins. If they find yourself making the NCAA match, although, they might get bounced rapidly. They’re in the backside third nationally in free-throw proportion (68.6%) and opponent 3-point proportion (36.5%).
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Saint Louis
Record: 28-5 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom rating: 41
WAB rating: 37
NET rating: 29
There might be a bid stealer in the A-10. Dayton is one recreation away from successful the convention match after Amaël L’Etang tipped in the game-winner towards Saint Louis in an exhilarating semifinal victory Saturday. That loss alone possible will not have an effect on the Billikens’ possibilities. They spent the again half of January and all of February in the AP Top 25. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins, together with one towards a Santa Clara staff that is additionally on observe to make the NCAA match. Plus, they’re high 40 in WAB.
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If Dayton defeats VCU in the A-10 championship, nevertheless, then the committee should determine between Saint Louis and VCU if the league solely will get two bids. That state of affairs can be uncomfortable for a Billikens squad that had been so good in the second yr of the Josh Schertz period however has misplaced 4 of its final eight video games and wanted critical second-half comebacks to win two of the others.
VCU
Record: 26-7 (15-3 A-10)
KenPom rating: 46
WAB rating: 42
NET rating: 44
The Rams completed the common season on a tear, the type that noticed them win 13 of their remaining 14 video games. Their lone loss in that sequence? Well, that got here towards then-No. 18 Saint Louis, which additionally took a 15-3 A-10 file into the convention match.
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VCU is seeking to earn a bid to consecutive NCAA tournaments for the first time because it reached seven straight from 2011-17. At the time, the Rams had been led by Shaka Smart after which Will Wade. Now Phil Martelli Jr. has the keys. Under his watch this season, VCU has gone 2-5 in Quad 1 video games, per BartTorvik, with the staff’s greatest wins arriving versus South Florida on Nov. 26 and Dayton on March 6. With one other victory over the Flyers on Sunday, the Rams might be A-10 champs and off the bubble.
Phil Martelli Jr. is the newest head coach to thrust VCU in the NCAA match dialog. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
(Mitchell Layton by way of Getty Images)
SMU
Record: 20-13 (8-10 ACC)
KenPom rating: 42
WAB rating: 46
NET rating: 37
SMU face-planted down the stretch. The Mustangs dropped 5 of their remaining six video games, culminating in a ACC match second-round defeat to No. 24 Louisville that was inside the grasp of Andy Enfield’s group. SMU had a multi-possession lead greater than 12 minutes into the second half, in any case. Nevertheless, the Mustangs — at one level 19-8, together with 8-6 in ACC play — now await their destiny.
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To make issues extra aggravating for SMU, it has one fewer Quad 1 win than fellow bubble staff Stanford, and the Cardinal blew out the Mustangs by 20 factors on Feb. 28. But Stanford’s full résumé is not as spectacular as SMU’s, and the Cardinal missed out on a possibility to enhance it by bowing out to Pitt in the first spherical of the convention tourney. SMU’s offense, headlined by Boopie Miller (19.2 factors per recreation) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.6 ppg), is twenty seventh in adjusted effectivity, per KenPom.
Texas
Record: 18-14 (9-9 SEC)
KenPom rating: 37
WAB rating: 47
NET rating: 42
Texas slipped up late, too. The Longhorns’ misstep may need been as huge as the state they play in and will very nicely preserve them out of the NCAA match. They misplaced 5 of their final six video games as nicely, even infamously struggling an SEC match first-round exit at the fingers of a 14-win Ole Miss staff that had solely gained 4 league video games all season earlier than occurring to succeed in the SEC tourney semis.
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Texas wasn’t simply dropping expensive video games late in the season. It was dropping some of them badly. That batch included an 11-point defeat to a Georgia squad it beforehand beat, a 13-point setback to then-No. 7 Florida and a 20-point embarrassment at then-No. 20 Arkansas. The Longhorns, spearheaded by projected first-round NBA Draft decide Dailyn Swain, have six Quad 1 wins. Those are protecting them afloat.
Oklahoma
Record: 19-15 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom rating: 40
WAB rating: 49
NET rating: 47
Another one of the probably fateful losses Texas took was to Oklahoma. The Sooners gained that recreation in extra time and on the street. That’s one of the 4 Quad 1 victories head coach Porter Moser’s crew logged this season. Once once more, Moser was on the scorching seat, similar to he was final season earlier than he guided Oklahoma to an surprising NCAA match look. He’s making an attempt to work some extra magic this time round.
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The Sooners wrapped a daily season that was dragged down by a nine-game dropping streak early in SEC play with six wins in the remaining eight video games. Tack on two extra victories in the SEC match — together with a dominant Quad 1 win versus Texas A&M — and instantly Oklahoma is in the March Madness dialog. Like Saint Louis, Miami and SMU, Oklahoma is high 35 in the nation in 3-point proportion. A 36.8% clip from deep can open the door to chaos.
Auburn
Record: 17-16 (7-11 SEC)
KenPom rating: 38
WAB rating: 44
NET rating: 39
A 16-loss at-large staff in the NCAA match? Auburn’s been making an attempt to make its case. On one hand, the Tigers have 4 Quad 1 wins. Two of these are Quad 1-A victories, per BartTorvik, though it is price noting that each of these had been added to their résumé earlier than February: Auburn defeated then-No. 14 St. John’s on Nov. 26 in the Players Era Festival and knocked off then-No. 16 Florida on the street on Jan. 24.
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Auburn was in the AP Top 25 by mid-December. By the finish of January, it was in a advantageous spot at 14-8. On the final day of the month, although, the Tigers sustained the first of 5 straight losses. The setbacks snowballed and the season spiraled to the tune of a 3-9 end over the remaining 12 video games. Yes, Auburn has needed to play by the third-hardest schedule, per KenPom, however 17-16 is 17-16.
San Diego State
Record: 22-11 (14-6 Mountain West)
KenPom rating: 47
WAB rating: 45
NET rating: 45
If the Mountain West is a two-bid league this time round, San Diego State has shot to turn into the convention’s at-large staff. It possible edged New Mexico in that regard when junior guard BJ Davis lifted the Aztecs over the Lobos with a game-winning layup in the Mountain West match semifinals. In the course of, head coach Brian Dutcher’s squad picked up a much-needed third Quad 1 win.
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SDSU has booked a visit to the NCAA match 5 seasons in a row, most notably in 2023, when the program made its first Final Four after which completed as nationwide runner-up. Its KenPom rankings these seasons had been thirtieth (2021), twenty fifth (2022), 14th (2023), twenty second (2024) and 51st (2025). Now at forty fifth following a loss to Utah State in the convention title recreation on Saturday, the Aztecs are a toss-up to make the area.
New Mexico
Record: 23-10 (13-7 Mountain West)
KenPom rating: 49
WAB rating: 58
NET rating: 46
As talked about above, New Mexico’s NCAA match possibilities took a probably decisive hit Friday, with a spot in the Mountain West championship on the line. The Lobos will now sweat out Selection Sunday. New Mexico has to hope the committee nonetheless favors its résumé over SDSU’s, regardless of the latest head-to-head consequence. After all, the Lobos did get the greatest of the Aztecs as soon as this season. That was on Feb. 28.
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What got here subsequent, nevertheless, had been three New Mexico losses over its remaining 4 video games. Friday’s convention tourney showdown between the teams made the distinction of their Quad 1 win totals. New Mexico has solely two this season. While the Lobos have the higher general file, the Aztecs have the higher WAB and NET rankings and performed towards a bit stronger schedule.
Indiana
Record: 18-14 (Sep 11 Big Ten)
KenPom rating: 45
WAB rating: 52
NET rating: 41
In his first season as head coach, former Drake and West Virginia frontman Darian DeVries has Indiana on the bubble. The Hoosiers have an opportunity to seize one final at-large bid for a beefy Big Ten, however they definitely shot themselves in the foot over the remaining month of the season. Indiana misplaced six of its final seven video games, in the end going one-and-done in the convention match with a 13-point defeat to Northwestern in the second spherical. That was the Hoosiers’ second loss to the Wildcats in the span of about two weeks.
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Indiana additionally misplaced to then-No. 8 Illinois by 20, received blown out by then-No. 7 Purdue by 29 factors and fell to then-No. 13 Michigan State by 13 factors. Indiana’s three Quad 1 wins passed off from Jan. 27-Feb. 7, as the Hoosiers topped a Twelfth-ranked Boilermakers squad and NCAA tournament-bound UCLA and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have not appeared like the staff that gained these video games shortly, although.