About 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or are lacking since its invasion of Ukraine nearly 4 years in the past, a price of casualties for a serious army energy not seen since World War II, a brand new report from a distinguished worldwide suppose tank says.
And the big human toll has secured comparatively small territorial positive aspects on the battlefield, with Russia growing the quantity of Ukrainian land beneath its management by simply 12% since 2022, the report from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says.
The report calls into query assumptions in many circles, together with in the White House, {that a} Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and incoming.
“Russia has the upper hand,” US President Donald Trump mentioned in an interview with Politico final month.
“They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger… At some point, size will win,” Trump mentioned.
But the CSIS report says Ukraine retains a big benefit because the defensive facet on the battlefield.
Kyiv’s “defense-in-depth” technique – utilizing trenches, anti-tank obstacles, mines and different boundaries together with drones and artillery have stymied Russia’s try for any significant positive aspects, the report says. Meanwhile, battlefield casualties favor Ukraine by a 2.5- or 2-to-1 ratio.
Russia and Ukraine don’t launch detailed figures for his or her fight casualties.
Ukrainian casualty tolls are about 500,000 to 600,000 killed – in comparison with Russia’s 1.2 million – wounded and lacking, in accordance with the report.
Russia has had between 275,000 and 325,000 battlefield deaths, in comparison with Ukraine’s 100,000 to 140,000, in accordance with the report.
“The data suggests that Russia is hardly winning,” the authors write.
Compared to conflicts involving main powers since World War II, Moscow’s losses are staggering.
The United States misplaced round 57,000 troops in the Korean War and 47,000 through the Vietnam War. Russia’s losses in Ukraine are 5 occasions larger than its complete losses from all Russian and Soviet wars since World War II mixed, together with the Afghanistan battle and two Chechen wars, the report says.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte informed the World Economic Forum in Switzerland earlier this month that Moscow misplaced 1,000 troops a day in December.
“Not seriously wounded, dead,” he mentioned.
“In the 1980s in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 20,000 in 10 years. Now they lose 30,000 in one month,” Rutte mentioned.
New troops have gotten more and more arduous to search out, overseas analysts say.
“Russian military losses, of those killed and wounded, now exceed sustainable recruitment and replacement rates,” James Ford, Britain’s deputy ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe mentioned in a speech final week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has comparatively little to indicate for the lots of of 1000’s who’ve died since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In the previous two years, Russian territorial positive aspects in some areas could be measured in simply yards per day, nicely beneath half a soccer area, the CSIS report says.
Russia each day battlefield positive aspects – 16 yards a day in Chasiv Yar, 25 yards a day in Kupiansk, 76 yards a day in Pokrovsk – are lower than what was seen by Allied troops through the notorious Battle of the Somme in World War I, a five-month marketing campaign in 1916 that noticed a British-French drive achieve fewer than 90 yards a day towards German defenders.
In the previous two years, “Russian forces have gained less than 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory,” the report says.
At dwelling, the toll of the Ukraine battle has successfully eliminated Russia from the ranks of the world’s financial powers, in accordance with the report.
“Russia is becoming a second- or third-rate economic power,” it says, citing declining manufacturing, weak shopper demand, excessive inflation and a scarcity of labor that led to financial progress of solely 0.6% in 2025.
The battle is burdening the not solely the present Russian financial system however its future prospects, the report says.
“While such items as ammunition, uniforms, and fortifications contribute to GDP, they do not improve long-term welfare or capital formation,” it says.
And Moscow has fallen behind in high-tech, with not one Russian firm among the many world’s high 100 know-how corporations.
In a Stanford University rating of high synthetic intelligence nations, Russia is twenty eighth out of 36 nations, behind nations like Spain, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia.
Despite the pessimistic outlook the report paints for Russia, Putin is unlikely to accept a peace deal with out additional Western stress on his regime, it says.
“The United States and Europe have failed to fully wield the economic or military cudgels. Without greater pain, Putin will drag the talks out and keep fighting — even if it means millions of Russian and Ukrainian casualties,” it concludes.