“Finally, something no one else has,” a Russian journalist says throughout a TV documentary on the country’s largest drone factory. “Such mass production of two-stroke engines doesn’t exist anywhere else in Russia.”
The factory in query, Alabuga, 600 miles east of Moscow in Russia’s Tatarstan area, has been pumping out rising numbers of the Iranian-designed Shahed-136 assault drone (identified in Russia as Geran), however the man behind the web site believes this can be one among its best achievements.
“This is a complete facility,” CEO Timur Shagivaleev provides in the documentary, explaining most of the parts for the drone at the moment are produced regionally. “Aluminium bars come in, engines are made from them; microelectronics are made from electric chips; fuselages are made from carbon fiber and fiberglass – this is a complete location.”
The declare indicators that manufacturing of the Iranian-designed Shahed, which has been the spine of Moscow’s drone war on Ukraine, has now been principally absorbed into Russia’s navy industrial machine. Analysts and intelligence officers imagine 90% of manufacturing phases now occur at Alabuga or different Russian services.
To that finish, recent satellite imagery shows the site is continuing to expand, with new manufacturing services and dorms that will enable it to scale up manufacturing exponentially. Analysts NCS spoke with imagine this progress would enable Russia to doubtlessly export an up to date and battle-tested model of the drone it initially imported from Iran – perhaps even to Tehran itself.
But a Western intelligence supply says the growth and the full Russian integration of the Shahed-136, have successfully marginalized Iran, revealing a rift between Moscow and Tehran. They say Tehran has been rising more and more impatient with the little return it’s obtained from Russia, regardless of having supported Moscow’s struggle effort with not simply drones, however missiles and different property.
That discontent successfully boiled over all through Israel’s 12-day bombing marketing campaign of concentrating on Iran’s nuclear weapons program in June, throughout which Russia’s statements of condemnation had been seen as paltry help for a nation that has been serving to Moscow since the begin of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“Iran may have expected Russia to do more or take more steps without being required to do so,” Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst for the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Studies, the analysis arm of the Iranian President’s workplace, informed NCS. They might not intervene militarily, however they might beef operative help, in phrases of weapons shipments, technological help, intelligence sharing, or issues like that.”
But Russia’s distant strategy was not stunning for the Western intelligence official NCS spoke with, who argued it confirmed the “purely transactional and utilitarian nature” of Russian cooperation with Iran.
“This explicit disengagement demonstrates that Russia never intervenes beyond its immediate interests, even when a partner – here an essential supplier of drones – is attacked,” they stated.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it started importing Iranian Shahed drones. By early 2023, Moscow and Tehran had inked a $1.75 billion deal for Russia to make the drones domestically.
The 6,000 drones by September 2025 stipulated in the preliminary contract had been manufactured about a yr forward of schedule and, in accordance to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Alabuga is now pumping out greater than 5,500 models monthly. It’s additionally doing so in a extra environment friendly and cost-effective manner.
“In 2022, Russia paid an average of 200,000 US dollars for one such drone,” a Ukrainian Defense Intelligence supply stated. “In 2025, that number came down to approximately 70,000 US dollars.”
Ukraine additionally stated Russia has additionally modernized the drone, with improved communications, longer-lasting batteries and far bigger warheads, making them deadlier and more durable to deliver down.
The Western intelligence official stated Iran initially appeared to embrace Russia’s efforts to localize roughly 90% of manufacturing of the Shahed 136 at Alabuga however Moscow’s upgrades appear to have caught it off guard.
“This evolution marks a gradual loss of control for Iran over the final product, which is now largely manufactured locally and independently,” the supply defined. They added Moscow’s finish aim is “to fully master the production cycle and free itself from future negotiations with Tehran.”
Dareini says Russia’s predatory habits isn’t a surprise and describes the relationship between the two nations as “both cooperation and competition.”
“It’s obvious that Russians want more, to get more and give less, and this is this applies to Iran as well,” he defined. “Iran has provided Russia with drones and technology and the factory, and it has not been for free.”
But in the technique of increasing, the official says, Alabuga has been unable to meet obligations to its Iranian companions. According to them, in addition to the lack of management over the ultimate product, Iranian authorities and corporations, specifically Sahara Thunder, have complained that some funds haven’t been made, in half due to the suffocating worldwide sanctions the Russian financial system has been beneath for greater than three years.
NCS has been unable to independently confirm this. NCS has reached out to the Alabuga administration for remark however has but to hear again.
“These obstacles add to Tehran’s frustration with the blockages hindering the transfer of Russian aeronautical technologies to Iran, which were promised by Moscow in exchange for its support,” the official added.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has seen Tehran principally withdraw from the worldwide sphere to regroup, reorganize and rebuild what was destroyed throughout the battle. And in addition to the well-publicized harm to Iran’s nuclear services, Israel focused a number of different Iranian services.
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) suppose tank, believes Alabuga’s growth might enable Moscow to present some significant help and ship a few of the up to date variations of the Shahed again to Iran.
“Some of [Iran’s] drone production facilities were bombed and they fired a lot of [drones], so as a way to build back stock, they may do that,” Albright stated. “And then then Iran could reverse engineer or receive the technology to make the better quality Shahed.”
“I think it’s very dangerous,” he added.
Other navy gear could also be making its manner to Tehran as properly. Open-source flight monitoring knowledge exhibits a Gelix Airlines Ilyushin–76 navy cargo airplane flew from Moscow to Tehran on July 11.
The IL-76 is a heavy transport airplane regularly utilized by the Russian navy to ferry troops and navy gear, and Gelix Airlines has been related to the transport of navy gear in the previous.
The plane spent round three hours on the floor after which flew again to Moscow.
NCS was unable to verify what was on board however Iranian media reported it was the ultimate parts of a Russian S-400 air protection system.
NCS requested the Russia Ministry of Defense for touch upon the pressure between the two nations however has not obtained a response. Similarly, NCS additionally reached out to the Iranian authorities, each in Tehran and through its embassy in the UK, however has but to hear again.
These newest developments spotlight Dareini’s core perception about relations between the two nations: whereas there could also be pressure, in the end Iran will even reap the advantages of the partnership.
“Iran has got, and very likely will get the things it needs for its own security,” he defined. “Whether it’s military hardware, whether it’s in terms of economic cooperation, technology and whatever it needs.”