A 12 months after President Donald Trump’s re-election, Republicans are already seeing their gains amongst Latino voters erode, latest election outcomes and polling recommend. Here’s what’s modified and what it might imply for subsequent 12 months’s midterm elections.
Trump made considerable inroads with Latino voters in 2024, shedding this group by simply 5 factors nationally after shedding by 38 and 33 factors in 2016 and 2020, respectively, in keeping with NCS’s 2024 exit ballot. Analyses by Catalist and the Pew Research Center additionally discovered a detailed race amongst Latinos final 12 months.
Trump’s comparatively sturdy efficiency got here amid a wave of financial discontent. NCS’s exit ballot discovered that Latino voters had been extra probably than every other racial or ethnic group to pick out the economic system as their prime situation and to explain inflation as a extreme or average hardship. They had been the least more likely to say their monetary scenario had improved since 2020.
Many Latinos entered Trump’s second time period feeling optimistic. Over half authorized of his dealing with of the presidential transition in a December 2024 NCS ballot, an analogous proportion described themselves as enthusiastic or optimistic about his second time period, and 72% expressed at the least some confidence in his potential to deal with the economic system.
But in NCS’s latest poll, simply 20% of Latinos authorized of his job efficiency, down from 41% in February. This 21-point drop far outpaces the 4- and 9-point drops amongst Black and White Americans and the 10-point drop in his approval score general. Several other polls have additionally discovered Trump’s approval score amongst Latinos declining from the beginning of his second time period.
This drop in approval comes as Latinos proceed to be targeted on the economic system: In the late October ballot, 54% say the economic system and value of residing is the nation’s prime situation (in comparison with 47% for Americans general). Latinos are extra probably than Americans general to fee financial situations as considerably or very poor (81%, in comparison with 72% of all Americans) and to say Trump’s insurance policies have worsened financial situations (75%, in comparison with 61% of all Americans).
Latinos are additionally likelier than the overall inhabitants to say that immigration is extraordinarily or essential to them (77% mentioned so in NCS’s late summer season ballot, in comparison with 65% of Americans general). From July to October, the proportion of Latinos who say that Trump has gone too far on deportations has gone up from 66% to 79%.
Since March, the Republican Party’s favorability score amongst Latinos has dropped from 26% to 16%, whereas the Democratic Party’s score has largely held regular, going from 37% to 34%. And by late summer season, Latinos gave Democrats a 10-point benefit on financial points, up from a near-even break up in May.
In an announcement, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson mentioned that Trump “received historic support from Latino voters in the 2024 election” and was starting to meet his guarantees on the economic system and immigration.
“President Trump has consistently outperformed the mainstream media’s so-called polling, and he will continue doing so by delivering for everyday Americans,” Jackson mentioned.
In the primary alternative for hundreds of thousands of Americans to weigh in on Trump’s second time period, Latinos supported Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey respectively, by at the least a 2-to-1 margin, in keeping with NCS’s exit ballot. Latinos additionally voted for a Democratic-supported redistricting poll measure in California 71% to 29%.
There have been questions on Democrats’ potential to win again Latino voters given their very own reputation points. (NCS’s most up-to-date polling discovered that extra Latinos view the occasion unfavorably than favorably.) The Latinos who voted within the November 2025 contests usually held favorable views of the Democratic Party – 56% in California and Virginia and 67% in New Jersey mentioned they seen the occasion favorably.
Democrats had been additionally higher ready than Republicans to win over Latino voters who seen their respective events negatively. Voters in California who seen each events negatively supported the Democratic-backed poll measure 78% to 21%. In Virginia and New Jersey, simply 2% of Latino voters who held a unfavourable view of the Republican Party supported Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican gubernatorial candidates, whereas over a 3rd who held a unfavourable view of the Democratic Party throughout the 2 contests solid votes for the Democratic candidates.
Democrats’ sturdy efficiency amongst Latinos on November 4 was not solely the results of extra Democratic-leaning Latino voters turning out. Mirroring the Latino disillusionment with Trump’s presidency, Latino Trump voters additionally seem to have defected from Trump at larger charges than the general voters.
Among Latino voters who turned out within the November 2025 elections and mentioned that they had supported Trump final 12 months, 24% in California voted for the Democratic-supported poll measure and 18% in New Jersey supported Sherrill. The defection charges had been significantly decrease amongst all Trump voters who turned out in 2025: 12% in California supported the poll measure and seven% in New Jersey voted for Sherrill.
While the 2025 contests signify a comparatively slim and Democratic-leaning enjoying discipline, early polling on the 2026 midterms additionally exhibits Democrats gaining ground. NCS’s October ballot discovered that Latino registered voters say, 64% to 19%, that they’d desire a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one. And 60% say there’s no probability they’d contemplate supporting a Republican candidate, whereas simply 19% say they’ve dominated out backing a Democrat.
An October Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll discovered a narrower however nonetheless substantial lead for Democrats amongst Latino voters – in that ballot, 52% mentioned they’d desire a Democratic congressional candidate and 35% a Republican one.
NCS’s newest polling means that Democrats are at the moment holding onto extra Latino voters who selected Democrat Kamala Harris final 12 months than Republicans are holding onto Latino Trump voters. Among non-Latino voters, Democrats and Republicans are holding onto related shares of their occasion’s voters.