Republicans avoided catastrophe on Tuesday night time by successful a special election in a solidly crimson Tennessee congressional district.
But the single-digit race there is merely the newest in an unambiguously troubling collection of current election outcomes for President Donald Trump’s get together 11 months earlier than the 2026 midterm elections.
Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps led Democrat Aftyn Behn by about 9 factors with 95% of the vote counted.
That’s in a district that Trump carried by 22 factors and former GOP Rep. Mark Green received by greater than 21 factors final 12 months.
That signifies that, as issues stand, Behn over-performed Democrats’ 2024 presidential margin by about 13 factors and their 2024 House margin by about 12 factors.
The swing is truly smaller than different US House particular elections this 12 months. Before Tuesday’s race, Democrats had over-performed Kamala Harris’ margins by a mean of 18 factors and their House margins by an average of 16 points in 4 particular congressional elections held in three states: Arizona, Florida and Virginia.
The sum complete of these 2025 races is fairly outstanding.
Democrats have now over-performed by double digits in each particular election for the House held in 2025. And this 12 months’s particular elections account for five of their 15 greatest over-performances (in comparison with their margin in the earlier presidential race) since Trump first grew to become president in 2017. That’s throughout greater than three dozen particular elections in that span.
Special elections are, after all, an imperfect and rare gauge of upcoming elections. They are inclined to characteristic very low turnout, which locations a premium on enthusiasm and may create bigger swings than regular. Turnout in Tuesday’s contest truly rivaled the 2022 midterm election in the district, which may account for why Behn’s over-performance was beneath the common of the opposite particular elections this 12 months.
(Even if Democrats had one way or the other received this district, there is little or no likelihood they’d have held it even in a robust 2026 election for his or her aspect.)
But just about each different indicator has additionally pointed in Democrats’ course this 12 months.
That contains particular elections held for state legislative seats, which have additionally swung harder towards Democrats than ever before in the Trump era.
Democrats additionally notched a double-digit over-performance in a high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April. And that they had a excellent Election Day final month that included double-digit wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races in addition to successful their first non-federal statewide workplaces in Georgia in almost 20 years. Democrats additionally overwhelmingly handed a redistricting poll measure in California regardless of some early doubt concerning the measure’s prospects.
Given all the eye the Tennessee race obtained, it’s possible there’ll be a good bit of dissecting the outcomes.
One truthful query for Democrats, given the smaller over-performance, is whether or not they failed to completely reap the benefits of the surroundings by working a fairly liberal candidate in Behn.
She gave Republicans loads of materials along with her previous feedback, which included saying she “hates” Nashville, expressing assist for defunding the police and calling herself a “very radical person.”
But with 2025 quickly coming to a shut, all advised, Democrats seem like performing higher electorally than they did in 2017. And Democrats went on in 2018 to win again the US House in a “wave” election.
That doesn’t imply a midterm victory is assured. Eleven months is a very long time. But historical past exhibits the president’s get together fairly often loses seats in midterm elections, and Trump proper now seems to be at a low level of both of his presidential phrases.
Tuesday’s outcomes crammed out that picture, even when Democrats fell nicely shy of a shock upset.