The members of the College Football Playoff choice committee will not be paid for his or her companies. But they’ll earn their maintain this weekend, as they are going to really be pressured to make some troublesome choices.
BYU misplaced to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship sport, which signifies that at the least two of the following groups ought to make the 12-team CFP: Alabama, Notre Dame and/or Miami.
Now, solely a kind of three groups performed this weekend, and that one staff (Alabama) bought blown out. The Crimson Tide basically no-showed towards No. 3 Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon, shedding 28-7 and delivering Alabama its second loss in its previous 4 video games. The CFP choice committee has — in the previous — penalized groups that slumped into Selection Sunday whereas propping up groups trending upward, so that’s one issue to maintain in thoughts.
It’s actually not clear what the choice committee goes to do that yr. Last yr, groups that have been already “in” the bracket as of the committee’s pre-championship weekend rankings didn’t fall out of the subject after collaborating in (and shedding) convention championship video games. SMU entered the weekend ranked No. 8 and fell two spots to No. 10 however stayed in the subject. Ultimately, the committee didn’t need to resolve whether or not or not convention championship video games are value placing on.
Now, it might need to make such a press release. If 10-3 Alabama falls out of the subject totally after being ranked No. 9 on Tuesday night time, there will probably be vital fallout from such a choice. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey would, undoubtedly, be livid if a staff that reached (and misplaced) the SEC championship sport (as the No. 1 seed in the league) bought knocked out of the 12-team CFP when it was already penciled into the subject just a few days in the past.
If that sport can harm you so badly, it could utterly disincentivize each staff from wanting to play in the SEC championship sport transferring ahead — which may result in the elimination of convention championship video games in common. That is what’s at stake in Sunday’s resolution by the committee. It’s not one thing committee members ought to take flippantly.
At the prime, I anticipate that the committee will (clearly) slide Indiana as much as No. 1 after the Hoosiers’ win over then-No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship sport. I solely dropped the Buckeyes to No. 2 as a result of it was a three-point loss to the different greatest staff in the nation. No offense to Georgia, however I can’t see the committee penalizing the Buckeyes too harshly after such an evenly matched sport.
I’ve bought each Tulane and James Madison making the subject out of the American convention and the Sun Belt, respectively. CFP guidelines state that the 5 highest-ranked FBS convention champions routinely qualify for the 12-team subject — and, in most years, we’d assume that 4 of these champions can be Power 4 groups. Not this yr. Not this ACC. An 8-5 Duke staff that wasn’t ranked in Tuesday’s Top 25 (which included JMU at No. 25) is unlikely to leapfrog the Dukes, now the Sun Belt champions.
But, let’s deal with the urgent query: What will the committee make of the Miami-Notre Dame debate? We’ve all spent the previous month arguing about the results of a Week 1 sport. Should Miami’s three-point win over Notre Dame knock the Fighting Irish out of the Playoff three months later? Or does it matter extra that Miami’s two losses are worse than the two losses Notre Dame has?
The choice committee has talked an excellent deal about how impressed it’s with Notre Dame’s consistency over its 10-game successful streak and the way a lot its protection has improved since September. But, 5 days in the past, it additionally mentioned that Alabama’s win over 5-7 Auburn was so spectacular it needed to bounce the Crimson Tide forward of the Fighting Irish.
So, the committee stays complicated — and unreliable. It seemingly makes up causes to justify a rating after the reality … even when it’s inconsistent with its analysis of one other staff in the similar set of rankings. Or the method it seen these groups per week in the past.
Ultimately, I feel the committee will select the best of its troublesome paths. I feel the committee will drop Alabama two spots after its blowout loss to Georgia (whereas highlighting the Tide’s win over the Bulldogs and different top-25 victories to maintain it forward of BYU, Vanderbilt and others).
But that might drop Alabama behind each Notre Dame and Miami, which might permit two of the most nitpicked groups of the season to each get into the 12-team subject — and it could basically run cowl for the ACC to ensure it has a CFP participant. At that time, the committee may even rank the Hurricanes one spot forward of the Irish because of that Week 1 outcome. If it desires to. The committee lastly put Texas forward of Vanderbilt (a staff it beat) this week when the two groups landed back-to-back in the rankings, in spite of everything.
So a lot of this comes all the way down to which groups the committee likes proper now — and what it decides to justify. We’ll discover out extra at midday ET on Sunday.