Premier League predictions and best bets: Don’t be fooled by Manchester United – they haven’t changed | Football News

Our soccer betting professional Jones Knows supplies his perception throughout the Premier League and he is not able to belief Manchester United at quick costs.

Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm

A stable betting tactic to make use of is to present Brighton respect in opposition to the massive boys and again them to be flaky in opposition to the remainder.

The Seagulls can flip Manchester City into mush one week, then flip into mush themselves the following in opposition to a group battling relegation. All three of Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester prevented defeat on the Amex final season and Brighton have already did not beat Wolves this marketing campaign when odds-on to take action.

Against sides who sit in, frustrate and counter at velocity, they typically wrestle to transform dominance into outcomes. And Leeds possess the fourth best defensive course of within the Premier League this season (9.23 anticipated objectives in opposition to). They could make this one other fiddly afternoon for the hosts with 10/11 with Sky Bet on Leeds double probability standing out.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Some bets simply make sense. Sometimes the apparent ones are those laced with essentially the most worth.

You take a look at the numbers, you take a look at the patterns, you take a look at the opposition and you may nearly hear the worth whispering in your ear, saying “back Arsenal to win to nil.”

Yes, the ten/11 with Sky Bet is not going to alter lives but it surely’s a rock-stable play that over time will hold you forward of the ledger on this battle in opposition to the oddsmakers. Arsenal’s defensive document is not simply good, it is title-successful, elite, brick-wall good. They’ve now conceded simply three objectives of their final 14 matches throughout all competitions, successful 11 of these with out conceding.

If Arsenal win, they nearly all the time do it while preserving their sheets clear. And Burnley, for all their endeavour, look ailing-geared up to alter that narrative.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Crystal Palace vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Yeremy Pino’s begin to life at Crystal Palace has been like a sparkler in a petroleum station: energetic, unpredictable and very harmful. And that is precisely why Pino to both rating or be carded at 5/4 with Sky Bet appears to be like a cracking wager this weekend. Pino has the need be concerned – a technique or one other – with or with out the ball.

Since arriving in south London, he is been averaging 2.5 photographs per 90, entering into the central areas of the field repeatedly and displaying precisely the form of low-centre-of-gravity menace that’s onerous to mark – as seen by his stylish aim at Anfield in midweek.

But there is a flip facet. For all that aptitude, there is a fiery edge. He leaves a leg in when the ball’s gone and does not take kindly to being kicked himself. He’s already been carded in three appearances which backs up his card-completely happy knowledge from Spain the place he was booked 12 occasions final season at a really wholesome price of 0.52 per 90.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Fulham vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm

Fulham’s new attacking livewire Kevin appears to be like to have lastly discovered his ft after being built-in into Marco Silva’s system. And for these of us sniffing across the photographs on course markets, he is shaping up as a participant to comply with over the following few weeks. Over his previous couple of appearances, he is been popping up in harmful areas, pulling defenders aside along with his motion and, most significantly, taking pictures.

He had seven photographs within the midweek win on penalties in opposition to Wycombe, hitting the goal thrice. It’s time for him now to be trusted in a Premier League recreation and the two/1 with Sky Bet for him to have two or extra photographs on course is brimming with potential.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Some groups make you’re feeling secure when they’re hovering round Evens away from residence: Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, spring to thoughts.

However, betting Manchester United at these costs is like going again to the ex who says: “I’ve changed.”

You wish to consider them, however deep down, you realize precisely how this ends with hearts damaged, fingers burnt and wallets bruised.

This model of United below Ruben Amorim stay a deeply unreliable, defensively chaotic group. And that makes them punting poison at quick costs like they are right here at 21/20 with Sky Bet to win at Forest, which means the house group on the double probability at 8/11 with Sky Bet is the assured play.

Defensively, they’re nonetheless hanging on by their fingernails. They’ve conceded 22 large probabilities within the Premier League this season, greater than some other group. That’s not dangerous luck, that is structural fragility, particularly within the central midfield space.

A low-scoring residence win it’s.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Nottingham Forest double probability (8/11 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

You know a Premier League season has gone a bit rogue when Micky van de Ven, a centre-again who failed to attain final season, is Tottenham’s prime scorer with 5 objectives. But right here we’re. And for punters, that’s the place the worth hides.

Because at 14/1 with Sky Bet to attain anytime in opposition to Chelsea, the Dutchman appears to be like a cracking worth in a season the place defenders have all of the sudden change into the headline acts.

This Premier League season is producing document ranges of objectives from corners and free-kicks, one thing which nonetheless is not being factored into the markets. Excluding penalties, 67 of the 241 objectives scored this season have come by way of a set-piece (27.8 per cent). And 45 of these 241 objectives scored have come by way of corners (18.7 per cent), a better proportion than some other Premier League season.

At 14/1 anytime, Van de Ven’s implied chance is simply 6.7 per cent. Given his kind, Spurs’ relentless set-piece output and Chelsea’s defending, that quantity underplays the true chance.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Micky van de Ven to attain (14/1 with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Saturday 8pm

As Liverpool head right into a pivotal stretch of their season, the neatest play may simply be trusting Arne Slot to get it proper once more at a time the place the narrative is portraying him as somebody who’s out of his depth.

Because if the title-successful marketing campaign taught us something, it is that Slot is aware of how one can handle chaos, rotate properly and hold his squad peaking whereas others run out of steam.

When Liverpool lifted the Premier League trophy final season, it wasn’t nearly ways and in-recreation substitutions, it was about participant administration. Slot acquired the mix between rotation and rhythm spot-on. He trusted his fringe gamers and made courageous calls within the league that left his stars contemporary for the massive days. That’s what this fixture is for Liverpool: an enormous one.

And Slot is aware of it, therefore why he is sacrificed the Carabao Cup so as to reboot his key gamers. It’s the product of a supervisor who understands when to gamble and when to guard.

Slot’s already confirmed he can navigate the chaos higher than anybody else. He can get Liverpool shifting in the suitable route once more – beginning right here the place the house win is generously priced at 4/6 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

West Ham vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

West Ham stay unfit for goal on this Premier League season as they’ve change into a plodding, predictable outfit who’re simply bullied.

And this can be a horrible match-up for them in opposition to maybe essentially the most aggressive and intense group on these shores.

Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon all will be licking their lips at successful their particular person battles and I’m anticipating Newcastle to be at it from the primary whistle so as to flip the stress up on the house gamers in entrance of their very own followers, who’ve now seen 9 video games with no win at residence, together with 5 defeats in a row.

Eddie Howe is a marginal good points kind of supervisor and he’ll know a quick begin to get the house followers turned will be a key tactic to win this match.

So, the way in which to spice up the 8/13 with Sky Bet on a Newcastle win is simply to focus on the primary half. West Ham have scored simply 4 first half objectives of their final 20 matches and none within the final seven. Back the Toon to win the primary half at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Newcastle to be successful at half-time (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Manchester City vs Bournemouth, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Bournemouth are a punters pal relating to over aim traces away from residence as 14 of their final 16 matches on the highway have sailed over the two.5 line. And for the reason that begin of final season their away video games in opposition to final season’s prime 5 have averaged 3.9 objectives per 90.

However, with the Premier League solely trending at 2.68 objectives per 90 this season, which is nearly 0.6 of a aim fewer than two seasons in the past, I’m slightly cautious of backing over traces.

The smarter play when your learn on a recreation is for objectives is to slip throughout into the goalscorer markets as a substitute and chase a much bigger worth. Antoine Semenyo, who has scored eight objectives in final 10 Premier League appearances, is the play at 7/2 with Sky Bet.

Looking on the knowledge, Bournemouth’s goal is to get him into harmful positions in transition and City will depart areas to be hit by way of that tactic. In what ought to be a aim heavy recreation, merely backing him to attain at 7/2 is the neatest solution to get a objectives and professional Bournemouth play on facet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Sunderland vs Everton, Monday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports

Everyone’s speaking about Jack Grealish, but, he isn’t even Everton’s best participant.

If you truly use your eyes somewhat than simply focus on the Grealish love-in, it is Iliman Ndiaye who’s operating the present within the ultimate third. He’s the one drifting between the traces, wriggling into pockets of house defenders hate and, crucially for us punters, is entering into taking pictures positions with actual intent. Something that Grealish is not doing.

Ndiaye has already scored three objectives this season – two greater than Grealish. He’s had seven photographs on course – three greater than Grealish and his anticipated objectives return is larger by 1.5 anticipated objectives than Grealish.

He’s additionally the penalty taker for Everton, which means the anytime goalscorer worth of three/1 with Sky Bet being dangled is just too juicy to move up. You’re successfully investing at 3/1 in Everton’s most superior and most concerned attacking participant who additionally may have a free shot from 12 yards if the ref factors to the spot.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Jones Knows’ best bets:

• 1pt on Micky van de Ven to attain (14/1 with Sky Bet)
• 1pt double on Nottingham Forest double probability & Newcastle to be successful at half-time (5/2 with Sky Bet)