Our soccer betting knowledgeable Jones Knows gives his perception throughout the Premier League weekend and ideas Manchester City to win an exhilarating Manchester derby.
Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge would not really feel like a mismatch anymore – in truth, it is turning into a fixture they quietly look ahead to. They’ve misplaced simply as soon as of their final eight visits throughout west London and that tells you every part in regards to the mentality of this workforce. There isn’t any concern.
And proper now, they’re completely buzzing.
Brentford are in the course of their best unbeaten Premier League run of the season – six video games with out defeat, successful 4 of the final 5. And since December 14, no Premier League workforce has picked up extra factors than the Bees (14). They are 11/10 with Sky Bet on the double likelihood.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Leeds are an ideal watch and their video games are fairly chaotic by design. They play on the sting, get in your face and they ask questions of the opposition, however additionally they invite strain. Across their final 18 fixtures their video games are averaging 3.5 targets and they’ve saved only one clear sheet in that interval.
Fulham arrive as the proper dance companion to punt on targets with over 2.5 wanting very beneficiant at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
They’ve scored of their final 12 matches throughout all competitions, exhibiting a stage of attacking consistency that travels nicely. Marco Silva’s facet do not want enormous dominance to discover the online both – they’re sharp in transition, intelligent within the half-spaces and harmful from extensive areas.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 targets (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to appear to be a severe workforce once more.
The massive shift has come of their construction in defence. Slot has clearly prioritised management with out the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate correct safety in entrance of them relatively than leaving them uncovered, which in flip has lower out the foolish errors costing them targets.
Across their final eight video games, Liverpool have conceded simply 5 targets. That’s not smoke and mirrors both. The anticipated targets in opposition to information backs it up properly at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a facet that’s limiting high-quality possibilities relatively than counting on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping heroics.
When you mix Liverpool’s improved defensive course of with Burnley’s restricted attacking risk, Liverpool to win to nil shapes up as a shrewd play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace arrive off the again of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out within the third spherical by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive response is to anticipate a fierce response. But historical past strongly pushes again in opposition to that concept.
Looking on the final 13 Premier League groups dumped out by League One opposition or under at that stage, the next-game document reads poorly: three wins, 4 attracts and six defeats. And even these three wins had been by the naked minimal – a single-goal margin. There’s no proof of a bounce-back surge. If something, the hangover lingers.
Sunderland stay unbeaten at house this season – a run constructed on vitality, construction and a crowd that turns the Stadium of Light into a really uncomfortable place to go to. They look an ideal worth on the draw no guess at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are the livewires for West Ham. Stop them, and you largely cease West Ham.
The drawback for the guests is that they are operating right into a Tottenham facet particularly designed to take that weapon away.
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Speaking on the Transfer Talk Podcast, The Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why, regardless of Conor Gallagher being a superb possibility for Tottenham Hotspur, it raises questions in regards to the squad Thomas Frank is constructing
One of the defining traits of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how nicely they handle transition moments. They do not permit video games to grow to be stretched, they recuperate their form rapidly and they suffocate counter-attacks earlier than they ever get going. That’s backed up by the numbers.
Across the season, Spurs have conceded the second-fewest quick breaks within the league (11) – and crucially, they have not conceded a single objective from a quick break.
There’s additionally a really robust angle below Frank in that 9 of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have come to nil. When Tottenham win, they do not simply win, they shut the door. It’s 2/1 with Sky Bet to land once more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly turning into a magnet for fouls. Not as a result of he is theatrical, however due to how Arsenal use him. He steps in aggressively throughout build-up, carries the ball ahead into strain and is consistently concerned in bodily duels at set items. That mixture naturally invitations contact and referees have been completely satisfied to blow the whistle.
The current numbers underline that pattern. Gabriel has been fouled not less than as soon as in 9 of his final 10 begins, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That’s a wholesome baseline for a centre-back, and it places the two+ fouls line nicely inside attain in the correct sort of sport at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Here, he is developing in opposition to Igor Jesus.
The Forest striker is aggressive, uncooked and nonetheless studying when to step in and when to again off. He’s dedicated 22 fouls throughout his current matches.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel to be fouled +2 instances (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Wolves have quietly grow to be a really tough workforce to rating in opposition to. The standout pattern of their current performances is defensive enchancment, and it is backed up by severe underlying numbers.
Across their final six video games, solely Arsenal can higher Wolves’ anticipated targets in opposition to means of 0.99 per 90. That’s elite territory. Wolves have confronted Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So whereas the pattern dimension is small, the standard of opposition provides these numbers actual credibility.
We know Newcastle are a really totally different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it is the attacking drop-off that is most hanging. In their final 17 Premier League away video games, they’ve scored greater than 1.5 targets simply thrice.
On common, Newcastle are managing simply 1.2 targets per away sport in that run, struggling to generate sustained strain or high-quality possibilities on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring below 1.5 targets once more on the highway appears a winner in ready.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes’ document away from house in opposition to top-level opposition is horrendous.
Going all the way in which again to his West Ham days, his document away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City reads 20 losses from 21 video games. It’s a brutal return.
Those video games have a tendency to observe the identical script too: sit deep, restrict injury, gradual the tempo and hope to keep within the contest for so long as potential. Now, this fixture would not technically fall into that bracket – however at what level can we begin calling Aston Villa an elite house facet?
Villa Park has grow to be a fortress. They’ve gained their final 11 house video games, a run that features assertion victories over Arsenal and Manchester City. The depth, construction and perception Unai Emery has created there may be proper up there with the very best within the league.
Moyes’ away video games are not often chaotic although. Since returning to Everton, simply two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 targets, with the typical sitting at simply 1.8 targets per 90. That’s why combining a Villa win and below 3.5 targets is smart at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports
Bournemouth’s away video games this season are bonkers. They’re averaging 4.8 targets per sport on the highway. Nope, not a typo. Yes, nearly 5 targets per sport.
The markets are totally aligned for targets on this one although, which naturally pushes us towards the anytime goalscorer angle.
And who higher to goal than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is beginning to appear to be his previous sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His motion, bursts in behind and intuition for objective are all again in proof – as proven by his objective vs Manchester City.
History provides us much more confidence. Mitoma has scored 5 targets in his final six video games in opposition to Bournemouth – that little bit of a psychological edge over the opposition is not factored into the costs at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BET BET: Karou Mitoma to rating (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma each to rating (9/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt double on over 2.5 targets in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and below 3.5 targets (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)