As the 2025 NFL season approaches, as a bettor and a fan I’m wanting to see if evolving tendencies proceed to form outcomes on the sphere. Let’s dive into three questions (and a few predictive solutions).
1. Will favorites dominate once more?
Last season, NFL favorites dominated each straight-up and in opposition to the unfold (ATS). A closing line unfold goals for a 50/50 cut up, and at -110 odds, bettors face a 52.38% breakeven charge. Typically, favorites and underdogs ATS hover round 50/50, with both aspect usually beneath 52.38%. However, final season was an outlier. According to Evan Abrams, Research Director at Action Network, favorites hit at 56% ATS, surpassing the goal even skilled bettors purpose for. Simply betting each favourite ATS yielded vital wins and a powerful betting ROI. This was the second-highest ATS charge since 1990, with solely 2005 being comparable. The moneyline informed an analogous story: Favorites gained 72% of the time, the third-best charge for a full season since 1980.
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Recreational sportsbooks broadly reported a web loss in opposition to NFL bettors final season, pushed by favorites’ dominance and -EV moneyline parlays persistently hitting. The most notable sport that took huge public favourite motion and sharp underdog motion was the San Francisco 49ers internet hosting the Detroit Lions on Dec. 30, when the Lions gained by 6, masking the unfold and securing an outright win.
Will this pattern proceed?
My prediction is a powerful no. Past outcomes don’t predict future outcomes in betting, particularly ATS, the place spreads incorporate in depth present information. The earlier outcomes had been merely transitory. This doesn’t imply it’s time to wager underdogs, both. The market will proceed pricing video games with closing strains possible falling beneath 52.38% for each favorites and underdogs ATS. Bettors ought to focus on situational spots, backing both aspect to generate closing line worth — the strongest indicator of profitable betting and potential earnings.
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2. Will touchdown on 1 & 2 stay an more and more widespread sport margin?
It’s broadly recognized that 3, 7, and 6 are the three most typical NFL level differentials. This is sensible given the worth of a area purpose (3 factors), a landing (6 factors), and a landing with a point-after-touchdown (PAT, 7 factors). These three numbers stay the commonest NFL outcomes, however the tendencies past this have shifted lately. One and two are rising as very frequent outcomes. Is there an actionable motive behind that or is that this only a pattern dimension outlier?
From 2003 to 2020, the following two most typical outcomes had been 14 and 10 factors, which additionally is sensible — two touchdowns or a landing plus a area purpose. However, during the last three seasons, a one-point differential has surged to change into the fourth-most widespread consequence, and a two-point differential has surpassed each 14 and 10 as properly.
So why are one- and two-point video games turning into extra widespread? And will that sample proceed?
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I imagine there’s a transparent clarification, and I predict this totally will proceed. The improve in these outcomes is because of rule modifications and subsequent teaching choices. The PAT try was moved from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, lowering PAT effectivity and growing the speed of two-point conversion makes an attempt. These modifications have considerably impacted remaining rating outcomes. We’ve all skilled the second when a missed PAT prompts the thought, “This will come back to haunt them.”
Another crux is that the majority groups are beginning to institute this superior analytics technique: When down 14 and scoring the primary landing of a comeback, go for the 2-point conversion. If 2-point conversions have a 51% hit charge, then scoring on the primary try units you up for a game-winning landing (a one-point sport). If the primary 2-point dialog try fails, you attempt once more and both go to additional time OR lose by two factors. Since the dialog charge is above 50%, this wrinkle in teaching choices has constructive anticipated worth.
For bettors, this shift has implications for playing technique. It means we must always place larger worth on strains of +/- 1 or 2 in comparison with earlier years. According to my calculations, a line shifting on or off a 1-point unfold was price 6 cents, however now it’s price about 7.5 cents on the greenback. Understanding these values helps bettors select the very best obtainable line when procuring round and calculate constructive or destructive anticipated worth as soon as a wager is positioned. For instance, should you wager -1 (-110) and the road closes at -1.5 (-110), you’ve gained 7 cents on the greenback in worth!
3. Are teasers priced out?
This query addresses worth sensitivity in betting, particularly with teasers, a wager sort that trades factors for quantity. In the NFL — the one sport the place teasers are usually advisable — the commonest teaser wager adjusts the unfold by 6 factors and pairs two legs. The business normal for a sensible teaser wager, often known as a Wong Teaser, is known as after Stanford Wong, writer of Sharp Sports Betting (2001). Wong’s math demonstrated long-term profitability by pairing legs the place the 6-point adjustment strikes the unfold by the NFL’s most typical margins of victory, 3 and seven.
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For instance, in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, utilizing BetMGM’s present strains, a Wong Teaser may pair the Broncos (-7.5) vs. the Titans with the Dolphins (+1.5) on the Colts. This wager turns into Broncos (-1.5) and Dolphins (+7.5) parlayed collectively.
Less mentioned is how the vig (or juice) for these bets has modified over the previous two seasons. Wong’s math confirmed profitability at -120 odds when pairing legs that transfer by 3 and seven. However, discovering -120 odds has change into tough not too long ago, with most sportsbooks shifting to -130 or greater. This change usually turns these bets from constructive to destructive anticipated worth.
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Just a few sportsbooks nonetheless supply -120 odds, however at -130 or greater, these bets are not worthwhile. The motive for that’s as a result of all odds are related to an implied chance. At -120, a bettor should hit 54.55% to be worthwhile, however at -130 it turns into north of a 56.5% hit charge. If you will discover -120 odds, I like to recommend including each Wong teaser leg choice to your wager slip, making use of the 6-point teaser to maneuver by 3 and seven, and utilizing a Round Robin to position these bets. Last yr blindly taking part in all 6-point, two-leg Wong Teaser candidates hit above 62% of the time. It was printing cash whatever the -120 or -130 charges, however that’s possible not sustainable and we are able to count on this season to be over 54.5%, however beneath 56.5%.
Currently, 9 Wong Teaser leg candidates are priced available in the market: Broncos (-8), Dolphins (+1.5), Seahawks (+2.5), Lions (+2.5), Texans (+2.5), Ravens (+1.5), Panthers (+2.5), Falcons (+1.5), and Bears (+1.5). If you will have entry to a sportsbook providing -120 odds, I counsel putting 36 two-leg teaser bets, risking 0.25 models per wager, for a complete of 9 models invested in +EV positions within the NFL market.