I’m unsure whether or not Jonathan Gannon shall be a great, poor, or medium defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers. It is, in actual fact, just about unimaginable to inform how good or unhealthy any defensive coordinator is with out an insanely lengthy monitor document. Jeff Hafley coordinated the seventh-best protection within the NFL (by DVOA) in 2024, after which, with Micah Parsons, the Packers fell to 14th. And then as soon as Parsons bought harm, they fell to twenty-eightth, ending 19th general once you common every part out.
So, did Jeff Hafley do a great job? I’ve no earthly thought. The Miami Dolphins apparently thought so, and possibly they’re proper! But I don’t wish to faux I do know issues once I don’t, and I’m simply unsure. The basic downside for all DCs is that a lot is out of their management.
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The New England Patriots — who, as you might know, are going to the Super Bowl — completed the season ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA. They completed 11th in EPA per play. They completed fourth in Points Against. The distinction lies in the truth that the DVOA adjusts for the standard of the opponent confronted, and the opposite two metrics don’t, and whereas the Patriots’ protection bought outcomes, they bought them towards the Raiders, The Panthers (Young was both benched or harm partway by means of), Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Jets (2x), Bengals with Jake Browning, Giants, Ravens with principally Tyler Huntley, and the Dolphins led by Quinn Ewers. That is a fully TERRIBLE slate of offenses. Is defensive coordinator Terrell Williams a genius? Was he secretly horrible? Or can we simply not inform?
And after all, the DC doesn’t management which gamers they’ve. That’s as much as the entrance workplace when it comes to drafting and acquisition, and God, within the type of accidents. It’s not Jeff Hafley’s fault that Jaire Alexander is a giant weirdo, that they bought Micah Parsons, that they misplaced Micah Parsons, that they misplaced Devonte Wyatt, or that Keisen Nixon changed into a trash-talking pumpkin.
All of that mentioned, I do consider (and I feel everybody would agree) that there are good and unhealthy defensive coordinators. Vic Fangio has a protracted monitor document of producing excellent outcomes, and I’m assured that he’s a great defensive coordinator. In my opinion, the perfect present DC is Brian Flores in Minnesota, which brings me to my level. I don’t suppose the underlying scheme of any given DC actually issues that a lot, and that every one have advantage if run correctly. Instead, I feel two overarching philosophies exist amongst DCs, and I’ve boiled them right down to the next mathematical equations. Both equations assume you cease the run at a non-terrible fee. They are:
I consider the Passive Model when it comes to the previous Cover-2 shell, or Tampa-2, although that’s hardly the one instance, nevertheless it’s simple to know. In the traditional Cover-2, the safeties forestall splash performs, they power/tempt all passes to be focused beneath, and depend on certain tackling to stop huge YAC features. If you’ve gotten a powerful entrance 4 or a Brian Urlacher consuming up the center of the sphere, a lot the higher. This mannequin made quite a lot of sense for a very long time, nevertheless it made MUCH MORE sense when groups made extra errors, and there was a league-wide development in direction of extra conservative, mistake-free ball over the past 40 years, which has actually ramped up of late.
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The final time the NFL’s league-wide completion percentage was below 60% was in 2006, when it topped out at 59.8%, and actually, 2007 was a turning level for passing because the league hit 61.2%, and has not fallen beneath 60% once more up to now. In 2020, the league common hit 65.2%, and has not fallen beneath 64% since. The league has been persistently transferring in direction of the next completion share over time, representing a common transfer in direction of extra conservative play. In 2010, the league-wide interception share hit 3% for the ultimate time, and in 2025, it reached a historic low of two.2%. But all of this conservative play has come at a value.
Explosive performs have declined as completion share has elevated. Way again in 1972, the typical completion was 13.2 yards, which can be the final time it was over 13. In 1991, the league hit 12 yards per completion for what is probably going the second-last time, because it has solely exceeded this mark as soon as since, within the offensively insane 2011 season. Since then, it’s been persistently over 11 yards per completion, till 2022, when it fell to 10.9, the place it has remained to today.
Picks are down, completions and completions share are up, and explosive performs are down, and these traits appear to be persevering with, which implies that the passive mannequin isn’t as helpful because it as soon as was, and that is why my admiration for the Flores system has grown. Flores’ protection rushes 4 defenders lower than another protection within the league, and so it’s the least predictable move rush within the league. Doing any type of movie research towards Minnesota is a nightmare due to the quantity of attainable mixtures. It’s not nearly figuring out “the blitz,” however about figuring out whether or not it is going to be a 5, six, or seven (or a couple of occasions this yr, eight) individuals coming at you, who the rushers shall be, and the place to fireside off your sizzling route whereas ensuring {that a} sneaky down lineman hasn’t dropped into your passing lane. And simply once you suppose you see seven individuals coming, swiftly, all however three drop off into protection.
The Flores protection isn’t good, after all, as no protection is, nevertheless it’s persistently excellent. The Vikings completed third in defensive DVOA this year regardless of a disastrous offense regularly placing them in horrible conditions. They completed second in 2024 as effectively, and first towards the move. And whereas that protection actually has some expertise on it, their highest rating participant per PFF was Jonathan Greenard with a really medium 74.2. The excellent (however comparable) Houston Texans defense had six players graded higher, including three in the 80s or 90s.
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More than something, I feel there’s some good proof, buried within the Vikings, and to a lesser extent, the Bears and blitz-happy Dennis Allen (whose Bears led the league in turnover differential), that whereas Passive Model defenses are solely pretty much as good as their constituent elements, that the Active Model defenses CAN create enchancment by way of scheme, at the least a bit.
And I’m unsure what Jonathan Gannon is, at the least but, however as soon as we get a glance and listen to extra on his philosophy, that is the framework I’ll be utilizing. And I don’t even essentially suppose that is solely a this-or-that state of affairs. I feel one cause Jeff Hafley’s protection was higher with out Micah Parsons in 2024 is that he was compelled to be Active to create a move rush, whereas with Parsons in 2025, he might stay passive and nonetheless get a move rush. But it’s a lot simpler to plan for Micah Parsons than it’s for “a bunch of random crap I scheme up,” and so, though Parsons is unbelievable, they have been nonetheless worse general.
Perhaps, sooner or later, the league will shift again to a extra explosive, much less cautious offensive norm, however till then, passive defenses will battle, as offenses keep content material to choose them aside with high-percentage passes. I very a lot hope the subsequent man up is aggressive and risk-preferring. Losing slowly remains to be dropping.