Omaha could also be a blue dot in a sea of Nebraska pink, however that time of political satisfaction has sparked a bitter divide amongst Democrats in a single of the nation’s most closely watched congressional races.
In the Nebraska primary on Tuesday, the Democratic marketing campaign to exchange Republican Rep. Don Bacon has grow to be one thing of a proxy warfare over which Democratic candidate would shield — or danger — the state’s distinctive method of awarding electoral votes in presidential elections.
The retirement of Bacon, one of solely three House Republicans who gained in districts that Kamala Harris additionally carried in 2024, created an open seat and engaging terrain for Democrats to focus on of their effort to win management of Congress in November.
Two of the main Democratic hopefuls in the race — John Cavanaugh and Denise Powell — have been at one another’s throats for weeks, with dueling adverts, yard indicators and contentious neighborhood disputes.
Powell argues that electing Cavanaugh, a state senator, to Congress would imply he might now not fight towards future Republican efforts to vary state election regulation and make Nebraska a winner-take-all system like 48 different states. That would threaten the blue dot, as the state’s 2nd Congressional District has colloquially grow to be recognized.
“We have fought so hard for fair representation, our Blue Dot, and to retain that electoral power,” Powell stated Friday in a assertion. “We cannot afford a candidate whose campaign hands Republicans the votes to gerrymander us into oblivion.”
The Democratic quarreling in Nebraska over a distinctive state difficulty stands other than the ideological fights in different aggressive races throughout the nation. Still, the primary has attracted a deluge of exterior spending from curiosity teams, with greater than $6 million in promoting alone, based on AdImpact.
Two exterior progressive tremendous PACs have invested greater than $1 million on the Omaha airwaves looking for to amplify Powell’s argument: If Cavanaugh is elected to Congress and provides up his place in the state legislature, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would fill the seat with somebody who would vote to get rid of the blue dot.
In response, Cavanaugh has aired adverts of his personal, calling his opponent “Dark Money Denise.”
His marketing campaign and allies have planted yard indicators throughout the district vowing to “stand up to Trump and defend the blue dot.” Six fellow state senators signed an open letter to voters final month saying the assaults have been misguided and Democrats have been prone to win different legislative races.
“We stand with John Cavanaugh because we can protect the Blue Dot and existing abortion access, while sending a strong, experienced legislator to Congress,” the senators stated of their letter. “It is disingenuous to boil the fate of Nebraskans down to one person.”
Nebraska and Maine are the solely two states in the nation that divide Electoral College votes by congressional district slightly than a statewide winner-take-all system.
Under the system, the statewide winner receives two electoral votes, and the relaxation are cut up, one apiece, amongst the main vote-getters in every district.
President Donald Trump benefited from the system in Maine, a blue state, the place he gained a single electoral vote in 2016 and 2020 regardless of dropping statewide. But the reverse occurred in Nebraska, a pink state, the place he gained solely 4 of 5 electoral votes in 2020.
In the last weeks of the 2024 marketing campaign, Trump and his allies mounted a last-ditch effort to vary the Nebraska regulation, fearful of the chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. Those worries, of course, by no means materialized, as Trump defeated Harris 312-226.
Hoping to impress upon them the significance of a single electoral vote in a tight race, Trump in 2024 spoke by phone to Nebraska Republican lawmakers to encourage them to vary the guidelines for the upcoming election.
But as a result of of opposition from lawmakers like Cavanaugh and a handful of others, Pillen did not rally assist to vary the 30-year-old Nebraska regulation. He has pledged to attempt once more if he can muster assist from the nation’s solely unicameral legislature, which is technically nonpartisan however has 33 senators who type a Republican supermajority and 16 senators who normally make up the Democratic opposition.
When Bacon introduced his intention to retire from Congress, Democrats seized upon the alternative for an open seat in a district that stretches throughout the Omaha space in japanese Nebraska. For the final decade, Bacon has efficiently fought off all Democratic challengers.
Brinker Harding, an Omaha metropolis councilman, is working unopposed for the Republican nomination for the seat.
The Democratic marketing campaign was initially dominated by acquainted considerations comparable to rising prices, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and, extra just lately, the Iran warfare. Now, the primary race has grow to be consumed by discuss of defending the state’s lone Democratic electoral vote.
The suggestion that the blue dot was in danger first got here from Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County District Court, who’s one of six Democratic candidates in the race. But Powell and out-of-state allies, together with Emily’s List, quickly amplified the argument in a multimillion-dollar spending marketing campaign.
The fight has grow to be a resounding soundtrack of TV adverts towards Cavanaugh, together with one from New Democratic Majority, a tremendous PAC that helps Powell.
“It’s how a House win in Nebraska could cost Democrats the presidency,” an announcer says. “Don’t let John Cavanaugh give away our blue dot.”
Powell, who beforehand operated a political motion committee known as Women Run Nebraska, is looking for elected workplace for the first time. In adverts, she describes herself as “one pissed-off Mom.”
Cavanaugh hails from a outstanding Democratic household in Omaha. His father represented the 2nd District in Congress from 1977 to 1981. His sister, Machaela, serves in the state legislature.
In addition to TV adverts of his personal, Cavanaugh created a web page on his marketing campaign website to push again on the argument that his election to Congress would imperil the blue dot. If elected, he stated, he wouldn’t resign his legislative seat till January, after new senators are elected.
“Elected Democrats in Nebraska are confident that they will pick up more than enough seats in November to offset John’s vote,” he explains on his marketing campaign web site. He provides: “Nebraska Democrats do not have to choose between standing up to Trump and protecting our blue dot.”