NCS’s chief data analyst Harry Enten stated President Donald Trump’s approval rating had fallen into “Death Valley” and warned that the commander-in-chief is so unpopular it would damage a possible 2028 presidential run by Vice President JD Vance.
On Tuesday morning, Enten discussed Trump’s approval rankings, claiming that they had fallen “into the abyss” and present “no sign of rising.”
“He’s now at a term 2 low: -18 pts,” Enten wrote on X. “Big reason why: Independents. Trump’s at -45 pts. The worst for any prez at this point in term 2. Worse than Nixon (-36 pts) at the height of Watergate!”
Enten stated that Trump’s cratering approval amongst voters is not solely the results of his unpopular war in Iran, however a “slew of events” which have “continuously” dragged his recognition decrease and decrease.
“He was at plus six points [in January], then minus three points a year ago [in April], minus seven points nine months ago, minus ten points in October 2025. January 2026, -13 points. And now all the way down to -18 points. A term two low,” he said.
Enten added that even if Trump ended the war in Iran tomorrow, he might see a minor bump, but he does not believe it would boost him much further.
The analyst then compared Trump’s current abysmal approval rating to the same point during his first term.
“In term one, he was actually rising at this point. He was actually going up,” he stated. “His three-month change was up by 5 points. Now we’re talking about a three-month change in which he has fallen to a new term two low, in which he’s at -18 points. In term one, at this point, he was actually higher.”
Trump’s web approval with impartial voters is additionally extraordinarily low, even when in comparison with particularly unpopular trendy presidents. Enten stated Trump’s web approval rating with impartial voters presently in his second time period is -45 and in contrast it to 2 earlier presidents — Richard Nixon and George W. Bush. He stated Nixon, on the similar time in his second time period and on the top of the Watergate scandal, had a -36, and Bush — mired within the issues of the Iraq War — had a -37.
He continued, saying that Trump was “now 6 factors decrease” than he was at the same point in his first term.
NCS’s John Berman then changed the topic from Trump’s cratering ratings to how his ratings are affecting “these near him” and what “collateral harm” they might be causing.
Enten, citing Kalshi prediction market bets, said that six months ago, 53 percent of prediction market users thought Vance would be president in 2028. That percentage has dropped to 37 percent today.
“According to the Kalshi prediction market, this is tied for [Vance’s] all time low,” Enten said.
Going back to Trump, Enten described Trump’s current approval rating with two words: “Death Valley.”